One of the key features ppl traditionally miss about history: the network effects that drive it, and their consequences for today
Thread 🧵
1. The better the initial natural resources—especially food—the faster your population grew.
2. The more natural resources, the higher the incentive to develop more tech to harness them
3. The more natural resources, the + they built infrastructure to harness it, the + they developed tech to do it, the + ppl could stay put instead of being nomadic, the + they could accumulate wealth
4. The + pop they had, the + they could specialize, and the + productive they were because they developed + tech
5. All of that got a huge boost from trade: the + you had, the + you could trade, and the + you could get from others, diversifying your resources & tech
6. For that you wanted good access to other cultures though. The easier the access, the better the trade, and the + of everything
7. But you also needed + and + coordination with others to make all of that happen and to protect your wealth from others, so you needed + government and social organization. The + you had, the + you could protect and enhance your trade, wealth, infra...
That's how you get one of the best flywheels in the world
And this is just a high-level summary. There are probably many more dynamics I'm missing.
This is why the population growth of the world has been accelerating over time.
It's also why innovation consistently increases in the long term. The US's GDP per capita has grown at 2% YoY for nearly 150y.
It's also why the industrial revolution was most likely to appear somewhere in Eurasia. The network effects of several areas were connected
It tells us why the best geography was crucial early on for success, but also why it matters less and less. Now you can trade your way through lack of natural resources, you can automate or specialize to not need as much pop growth...
What you do need is tech, because productivity fuels everything else.
Never bet against the US:
Ppl think its biggest strength is its institutions, the dollar, entrepreneurship... But one of its biggest assets is its geography 🧵
1. Size
The US is the 4th largest country. It spans an entire continent, reaches two oceans, and is big enough to be a geographic heavyweight in the world
2. The Mississippi Basin
It's the 4th largest drainage basin in the world and occupies 40% of the contiguous 48 US states, touching 32 of the US’s 50 states. 11 US states directly take their name from it.
Climate caused the US Civil War, because: 1. Slavery was the main cause of the war 2. Different crops were the main cause of slavery 3. Climate caused different crops in the North vs South
This is terribly important to understand the US today and how to heal it
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1. Slavery was the main cause of the war: the Abolitionist North & the Slavery South were competing to expand westward to increase their political influence
But the North grew & expanded faster, to a point where it could force abolition on the South, which then seceded
In 1790, the Free & Slave states had the same population, and there were many more Slave States (8 vs 5), so Slave States controlled the Senate.
By the eve of the war in 1860, the North had 50% more population and 4 more states, giving them control of both the House & Senate
Moscow is one of the weirdest capitals:
• Biggest European city
• Extremely cold
• Little farmland
• To Russia's extreme west
• Not on a coast or main river
How did it create the biggest country on Earth?
It involves horse archers, human harvesting & tiny animals 🧵
The first shocking fact is that Russia is so far north it's at the edge of arable land. How can you create a capital with so little food? Why not in the middle of the most fertile area on Earth?
This far north is extremely cold
Moscow is the 3rd coldest capital in the world and by far the biggest: with 20M ppl, its metro population is 8x bigger than the 2nd biggest cold capital, Stockholm!
This map tells you how a seemingly innocent difference, like wheat vs rice eating, can have dramatic political, economic, and cultural ramifications:
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The areas that harvest wheat vs rice are different. Why?
Because of climate
Rice needs heat and lots of water. Ideally, flooding the fields to also kill weeds. Rice dies with frost.
Wheat resists it well, prefers cooler temperatures, but dies when it's flooded
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."
Why did 🇮🇱Israel strike 🇮🇷Iran now, and not months or years ago or in the future?
A unique combination of a dozen factors converged to make the moment unique for 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵 1. No Hamas to its southwest 2. No Hezbollah to its north 3. No Assad threat to the northeast
4...
4. No more Syrian army to attack 🇮🇱Israel's planes: As the new forces of HTS took over Syria, Israel bombed all the existing Syrian military. No more fighter jets or surface-to-air missiles to threaten 🇮🇱Israel
5. Ability to fly over Syria to refuel
This is critical, because 🇮🇷Iran is ~600-1000 miles away from 🇮🇱Israel, so 1200-2000 miles round trip
The range of Israel’s stealth F35 is only about 1,350 mi
To operate inside 🇮🇷Iran, 🇮🇱Israel needed refueling over Syria