One of the key features ppl traditionally miss about history: the network effects that drive it, and their consequences for today
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1. The better the initial natural resources—especially food—the faster your population grew.
2. The more natural resources, the higher the incentive to develop more tech to harness them
3. The more natural resources, the + they built infrastructure to harness it, the + they developed tech to do it, the + ppl could stay put instead of being nomadic, the + they could accumulate wealth
4. The + pop they had, the + they could specialize, and the + productive they were because they developed + tech
5. All of that got a huge boost from trade: the + you had, the + you could trade, and the + you could get from others, diversifying your resources & tech
6. For that you wanted good access to other cultures though. The easier the access, the better the trade, and the + of everything
7. But you also needed + and + coordination with others to make all of that happen and to protect your wealth from others, so you needed + government and social organization. The + you had, the + you could protect and enhance your trade, wealth, infra...
That's how you get one of the best flywheels in the world
And this is just a high-level summary. There are probably many more dynamics I'm missing.
This is why the population growth of the world has been accelerating over time.
It's also why innovation consistently increases in the long term. The US's GDP per capita has grown at 2% YoY for nearly 150y.
It's also why the industrial revolution was most likely to appear somewhere in Eurasia. The network effects of several areas were connected
It tells us why the best geography was crucial early on for success, but also why it matters less and less. Now you can trade your way through lack of natural resources, you can automate or specialize to not need as much pop growth...
What you do need is tech, because productivity fuels everything else.
What makes Budapest unique?
It wasn't just 2 cities (Buda + Pest) but 3-4!
Why?
And why is it where it is?
Why did it become the capital of Hungary?
It's no coincidence, and it explains the history of the country
Look at this:
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The Pannonian Basin, this huge plain surrounded by mountains, was going to have a capital. But where would it be?
It would probably be on the main artery: the Danube, which splits the plain in half 1. Navigable all the way to Germany—fantastic for trade 2. Drinking water, great for living 3. Water for irrigation ➡️ crops
But early on the Danube had another huge advantage:
Why is Hungary so small?
As this map shows, it could be bigger
It used to host one of the world’s most powerful empires—Austria-Hungary
Now it’s tinier & poorer. What happened?
Explaining it also explains Orbán, or why Hungarians hate their borders🧵
You see that big plain surrounded by mountains? That's a perfect region for a single country: well-connected, fertile plains, protected by an easily-defensible wall of mountains.
That is, indeed, where Hungary was for nearly 1000 years!
It's called the Pannonian Basin
All these mountains catch humidity that flows down as rivers, which criss-cross the country, bringing lots of irrigation
The biggest one is the Danube, so big & gentle that it's navigable, connecting it with Germany & creating trade and wealth along its controllable path
Two shocking events from last week unmasked eco-terrorists disguised as environmentalists:
1. The Philippines banned golden rice, condemning thousands of children to blindness and death 2. German Greens lied to closed nuclear plants
This is what happened and how to reverse it:
1. Golden Rice Ban
Golden Rice has added vitamin A over 100,000 children every year and turns blind over 100,000 more
Golden Rice has additional vitamin A, and eliminates that problem
But Greenpeace got a Filipino court to ban it. Why?
The court says "there's not enough evidence". But there is, proven by safety tests from countries like the US, Canada, and NZ. It is just like rice, except with more Vit A
You think housing prices will keep going up because you've seen it all your life. But this is a historic anomaly that is likely to reverse soon: Prices might start shrinking in many places.
This thread is the case against investing in housing:
Our perception of real estate prices is extremely biased.
Most ppl alive today have only experienced them since WW2, but that's a completely anomalous period!
Prices before did not grow as much. Here are real prices for 14 countries
What happened?
Supply and demand
The last 80 years have seen a growth of housing demand never seen before. At the same time, supply has been shrinking consistently. These trends are all reverting now. Let's look at them in detail:
Why do Jamaicans speak English, when most of its neighboring countries don’t?
Why was the pirate capital there?
Why is it underwater now?
Why did pirates drink rum?
Why are most Jamaicans black?
This map of shipping lanes today gives you a hint:
Jamaica is in the middle of all these shipping lanes, but isn't a major shipping hub today
This is not new: Back in Spanish colonial times, Jamaica was not in the main trade routes either
Spain's main goods were silver from Mexico and Peru and luxury goods from China
Spaniards gathered them in Panama, Portobello, Cartagena, and Veracruz
Ships arrived from Spain to Puerto Rico and left via Habana (Cuba)
Jamaica was not a main port
Why?
This machine makes fuel from thin air
It's carbon neutral
And it does this at record-low costs
Energy and the environment will look completely different in 10 years
Here's why: 🧵
The problem with fossil fuels today is not that we burn them, it's where they come from: They had been locked in the ground for millions of years and now they're back in the atmosphere. The pbm is the "fossil", not the "fuels"
If we make fuels out of thin air, we can burn them
How can we do it?
Natural gas is mostly methane (CH4)
You just need some energy to force some carbon (C) to bing to hydrogen (H)
Carbon can come from air (CO2)
Hydrogen can come from water (H2O)
The energy can come from the sun (solar panels)