Thread by @YorickB

🧵The Deltavariant is absolutely RIPPING through the Dutch youth.

Cases rose quickly from ECDC 'Green' to 'RED; in just 6 days.📈
After that, it took Delta *ONLY 3 days* to push the daily number of cases from 'Red' to 'Dark Red'.🚀

2)
- June 26th: The Netherlands🇳🇱 lifted almost all restrictions.
- June 27th: the number of cases was 504.
- July 8th: the number of cases reached. 6.984

Delta showed that a 13.8 fold increase in 13 days is not only *possible*, its EASY.

thenationalnews.com/world/europe/n…

3) We see a BIG vaccination effect. and see the group 20-29 is now the main driver of the FOURTH wave🌊

4) But beware... when we zoom in, we see a (slight) increase in ALL age groups. 👵🧓👴

The Dutch CDC estimates the Rₑ value just days before the easing of the restrictions to have risen to 1,37.

Due to the way the calculate the Rₑ value, their model only gives a value that is two weeks old. 🤷

But estimations put the current Rₑ well above 3.

6) The percentage of positive tests went up by 10%.
- June 27th: 3.2%
- July 9th: 13.9%
This is an indication of not enough people currently getting tested, meaning the real number of infected people is higher.

[end]

[addendum]
The current number of new hospitalizations is still low.

But I hope I do not have to explain the time delay between infection and hospitalization. ⏲️

The easing of restrictions started two weeks ago, so the numbers are expected to start rising shortly.

[Small update]

The Netherlands🇳🇱 decided to hit 10.000 cases today. 🥳

Yesterday, the government put back some restrictions... (no night life - nightclubs, etc.)

...but will they be enough? And when we see an effect? Only time will tell... ⏰

government.nl/latest/news/20…