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The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
@sethjlevy
Jul 9, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The ribs are ready to go on!
At in laws. Gotta make due.
So far so good...
Almost wrapping time...
Wrapped and back on meat side down.
They’re back on to finish!
Now lightly glazed so the bbq sauce can set.
Serving...

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More from @sethjlevy

The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Apr 3
Let’s discuss Vietnam as an example of how some of the negotiations to reduce reciprocal tariffs may go.

1/
x.com/i/grok/share/V… x.com/jules31415/sta…
The US is Vietnam’s number 1 export market.

This is true for many countries on that list Trump published yesterday.

They exported $136.6 billion to the US in 2024, representing nearly 30% of their total exports.

They obviously can’t survive a 46% tariff.

2/ Image
Vietnan has the second largest known reserves of rare earth minerals, with China number one.

Vietnam doesn’t have refining capacity.

It exports ore to China.

It restricts ore to every other country on the premise that it wants to one day refine the ore domestically.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Mar 27
1/ If this was a true “mistake” and not done intentionally as an info op then given what is already publicly known about how it happened and the details of how Signal works when setting up a group chat, this was likely accomplished via a social engineering attack where someone in the lead up to this event gained temporary access to Waltz’s phone and changed the number for an existing contact known to be a established member of the top level working group.
2/ This would explain Waltz made a mistake, is a good guy, it may have been a staffer and concerns about how Signal may have failed in keeping conversations private.

If this is true there could be a ongoing investigation to figure out who gained physical access to Waltz’s phone.
3/ The reason I suspect this was what happened is that when a contact is added to Signal, you are adding a name not seeing the associated number.

It is likely Waltz had set up this same group for other purposes and there had never been an issue.

He would have no reason to think there was a problem.
Read 6 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Jan 29
I invite everyone to go read this article by Mark Paoletta, Daniel Shapiro and Brandon Stras.

“The History of Impoundments Before the Impoundment Control Act of 1974”

Linked at the end of this thread.

Let’s review key passages in this 🧵.

@elonmusk @DOGE @DataRepublican
“Until the Presidency of Richard Nixon, it was overwhelmingly understood that the power of the purse restricted only the President’s ability to spend more than an appropriation”

Meaning Presidents can’t spend unappropriated funds but aren’t required to spend ALL appropriations.
“And the President’s ability to spend less than an appropriation has been met with approbation, not censure, by congresses throughout the Nation’s history.”

This will be particularly important to the current Supreme Court that is clearly seeking to re-align with original intent.
Read 21 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Nov 4, 2024
Now that I’ve watched this, I understand why they put this out.

It’s something I pointed out on @davidchapman141 show regarding the way the states will report their vote totals.

~80% of GA and NC have already voted and are expected to announce those totals by 8 & 8:30.

1/4
This is a big problem for the Harris campaign especially if GA and NC are called quickly.

They will have voters still voting in states that will need people to turn out through the night in WI, MI, AZ and NV.

This could collapse late turn out and affect Senate races.

2/4
It’s not just about GA and NC being called.

It’s that they will reveal whether there was a larger than expected R to D crossover vote or if that was always just a Harris campaign fantasy.

If that concept is disproven early, that news will spread like wildfire.

3/4
Read 5 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Sep 24, 2024
1/ 🚨 “Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.”

news.gallup.com/poll/651092/20…
2/ “Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”
3/ “More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter”
Read 8 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Sep 12, 2024
1/ I want to piggy back off of this to explain a fundamental dynamic that has changed since 2020.

Reels.

These are the mini snippet videos that people consume on platform like Tik Tok, Instagram, Facebook and even on X.

Although this existed in 2020 they are now ubiquitous.
2/ These mini videos consumed over and over throughout the day, day after day alters the impact and value analysis of events particularly video based events like a debate.

In the past snap polls had more significance because it was likely the only time the majority of people would consume the debate video content.
3/ As a result, asking people their view of who “won” the debate immediately following the airing of the debate made some sense.

But now, the live airing of the debate actually makes up a small percentage of the saturation of the content into the public consciousness.
Read 8 tweets

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