The Honest Broker Profile picture
Jul 10, 2021 19 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Excellent analysis:

Science Doesn’t Support Idea That Marijuana Aids Athletes’ Performance nytimes.com/2021/07/09/spo…
In addition to the ample evidence of dodgy science in anti-doping, this quote from @wada_ama spokesman @JamesFitz501 is key: “the U.S. has been consistent in its strongly held position that WADA should keep cannabis on the List”
The US government took credit for getting marijuana on the (then) IOC prohibited list as a matter of national anti-drug policy despite greater concern of athletes and officials on actual performance-enhancing drugs

ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digi… Image
The use of (what would become) WADA by the Clinton Administration as an element of domestic drug policy is further documented in this Oct, 1999 Senate Hearing
govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CH… Image
In Oct 2000, President Bill Clinton issued an Executive Order establishing a White House Task Force on Drug Use in Sports: presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/exec…

And here is the accompanying press conference: presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/pres…
And here are the minutes of the first meeting of the WH Task Force ojp.gov/pdffiles1/ondc… Image
All of this history clearly indicates that the U.S. saw WADA as an instrument to pursue domestic drug policies, using athletes as "role models" and thus the US required that drugs at the focus of policy (performance enhancing or not) be regulated in sport
ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digi… Image
WADA however requires a substance/method on its prohibited list meet 2/3 criteria:

performance enhancing
unsafe
violates "spirit of sport"

There is no category of "in support of US drug policies"

So evidence had to be created to support marijuana inclusion on prohibited list
So in 2011 this paper was published
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

It was co-authored by 2 WADA scientists and 1 scientist who the US government appointed to the committee that creates the WADA prohibited list!

This is "policy-based evidence"

and a major, major COI Image
Here (via @NYT) is an example of WADA/USG playing a bit loose with the evidence reported in that 2011 paper: Image
And another example Image
And despite there being more recent research (2020) conducted by independent researchers @wada_ama spokesperson @JamesFitz501:
"Mr. Fitzgerald said that the WADA authors “stand by” the 2011 scientific analysis, published in the journal Sports Medicine"
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… Image
This is course not the first instance of a sports organization using dodgy science produced by in-house researchers/advisors to produce evidence for a preferred policy: link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Nor is it the first instance of dodgy science being deployed in anti-doping regulation
tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108… Image
But it does show the length to which @wada_ama has been (and apparently still is) willing to go to appease US gov't by apparently violating its own procedures supported by flawed science -- this just makes WADA look like a political tool
I'd guess that there is a lot of shake-my-damn-head going on within WADA now that the US gov't has apparently reversed course on the inclusion of marijuana on the prohibited list
ft.com/content/57a868…
If WADA reconsiders cannabis on the prohibted list no one will look good -- the USG, WADA, USADA or the advisors who are apparently doing the bidding of the decision makers that they are ostensibly advising

Bottom line:
What a mess!

/END
A few more details, adding to this thread

2008 GW Bush WH ONDCP bragging to Congress about successful opposition to calls for removal of marijuana from WADA prohibited list:
govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CR… Image
"There was no testing for marijuana at any Olympic Games before 1988."
doi.org/10.1016/j.peh.… Image

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Jan 11
🧵
The percentage of a percentage trick is increasingly common & leads to massive confusion

Here a undetectable difference of 0.01 events per year per decade is presented as the difference between a 31% and 66.4% increase (in the *likelihood* of the event, not the event itself) Image
The resulting confusion is perfectly predictable

Here is a reporter (NPR) explaining completely incorrectly:
"The phenomenon has grown up to 66% since the mid-20th century"

False Image
Also, the numbers in the text and figure do not appear to match up
I asked Swain about this over at BlooSkeye Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 22, 2024
The new hurricane damage time series trick

Step 1: create Frankenstein dataset w/ an increasing trend where there was not an increasing trend before

Step 2: Attribute the increasing trend to climate change

Step 3: Use Frankenstein dataset to impeach other research w/ no trend Image
The reason that the blue and red numbers are different is that they are different measures of hurricane losses

E.g., the red numbers include inland NFIP damage
The blue numbers do not, on purpose, because NFIP only started in 1968

They are apples and oranges
Now 3 peer-reviewed papers (PNAS, JAMC, BAMS) make this most basic of errors by replacing and splicing NOAA BDD to the MWR/NHC time series

Predictably all three papers find an increasing trend in normalized hurricane damage even though landfalling hurricanes are not increasing Image
Read 6 tweets
Dec 21, 2024
A Frankenstein dataset results from splicing together two time series found online

Below is an example for US hurricane damage 1900-2017
Data for 1980-2017 was replaced with a different time series in the green box
Upwards trend results (red ---)

Claim: Due to climate change! Image
The errors here are so obvious and consequential that it is baffling that the community does not quickly correct course

Read about it here
Is my analysis flawed?
osf.io/preprints/osf/…
The IPCC AR6 cited a paper misusing the Frankenstein hurricane loss dataset to suggest that NOAA's gold standard hurricane "best track" dataset may be flawed

JFC - Using flawed economic loss data to suggest that direct measurements of hurricanes are in error! Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 2, 2024
We’ve reached the point where an IPCC author is openly rejecting the conclusions of the IPCC out of concern over how their political opposition is correctly interpreting the AR6

The integrity of the IPCC on extreme events is now under attack
The IPCC explains that a trend in a particular variable is DETECTED if it is outside internal variability and judged with >90% likelihood

For most (not all) metrics of extreme weather detection has not been achieved

That’s not me saying that, but IPCC AR6 Image
The IPCC also assesses that for most (but not all) metrics of extreme weather the signal of a change in climate will not emerge from internal variability with high confidence (ie, >90%) by 2050 or 2100, even assuming the most extreme changes under RCP8.5 Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 31, 2024
🧵
You won't believe this

The US National Academy of Sciences has a new study committee on Extreme Event Attribution

Among its sponsors are the Bezos Earth Fund and Robert Litterman

Who are they? . . . Image
Image
The Bezos Earth Fund sponsors World Weather Attribution, an advocacy group promoting the connection of weather events w/ fossil fuels in support of press coverage & lawsuits

Robert Litterman is on the board of Climate Central which founded WWA & collaborates on climate advocacy Image
The fact that a NAS committee is funded by political advocates is crazy enough

But that is not all

On the committee itself are individuals from two climate advocacy groups

One . . . the Union of Concerned Scientists which is working to use attribution to support lawsuits . . . Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 18, 2024
1/3

Climate science is broken

I provided PNAS with irrefutable evidence that a paper it published used a fatally flawed “dataset” compiled by interns for corporate marketing

I asked for a retraction

PNAS investigated & found no problems at all with the dataset

The PNAS reply belowImage
Image
I documented how the “dataset” was created (including contributions of two of my former students)

It was never intended for scientific research, just for selling insurance products

In the next Tweet I’ll link to my post with all of the details

If climate science cannot pass this simple test, it has a serious problemImage
Read 4 tweets

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