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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
@phl43
Jul 10, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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"electric dream of fish" Image
I actually like that one better. Image
"infinite stairwell of fire" Image
"a cat wearing a medieval armor" Image
"colorless green ideas sleeping furiously" Image
Another version with the same prompt. Image

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More from @phl43

Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Jul 25
Okay, you're going to say that I say that because I'm a reactionary who hate protesters in general (which again is kind of true though besides the point here), but pro-Palestine protesters have to be some of the most retarded people on earth.
It's true that the deck is stacked against the pro-Palestine side of this thing, but at the end of the day it's impossible to avoid the conclusion that, if they weren't so fucking stupid and unhinged, things would go a lot better for them.
And please don't be telling me that at least they don't stay silent about what Israel is doing in Gaza. These morons obviously couldn't care less about that or they wouldn't be doing this shit. They're just a bunch of petulant and retarded children who only care about themselves.
Read 9 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Jul 16
We're at the point in France where, in most large cities, immigrants are responsible for between 1/3 and 1/2 of reported crime or even more than that, but there are people seriously explaining that Science has demonstrated immigration has no causal effect on crime because a paper using a shift-share instrument in Italy on data that are 20 years old found no statistically significant effect 🙃 We are truly reaching level of midwittery previously thought unimaginable.
It's really hilarious that those people don't understand that, when some groups are overrepresented in reported crime by a factor of e. g. 5, if a paper using sophisticated statistical jujutsu finds no effect the rational thing is not to believe the paper.
Once again, there is a real problem with people drawing inferences from papers based on techniques where a million things can go wrong, without ever thinking about mechanisms or doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation to check the plausibility of their conclusions.
Read 9 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Jul 6
Les instituts de sondage font des projections assez différentes, mais elles mettent toutes le RN beaucoup plus bas que mon modèle. Qu'est-ce qui explique cela ? Je voudrais explorer cette question, car je pense que ça éclaire les enjeux de la modélisation du second tour 🧵


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Quand je modélise la probabilité de victoire au second tour en 2022 des candidats RN en fonction de leur avance ou retard au premier tour, lisez le tweet cité plus haut et le fil dans lequel j'explique la méthodologie pour comprendre ce que je fais exactement, ça donne ça. Image
On voit que, selon le parti/alliance auquel il fait face au second tour, le RN a plus au moins de chance de l'emporter à avance ou retard égal au premier tour. Mais honnêtement il était bien plus compétitif que ce à quoi je me serais attendu intuitivement.
Read 26 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Jul 1
Avec les résultats du premier tour, le modèle donne ça :
- RN et LR-Ciotti : 274 (263 - 284)
- NFP : 126 (120 - 132)
- Ensemble : 102 (96 - 109)
- Divers Droite : 20 (17 - 23)
- LR et UDI : 19 (16 - 23)
- Divers Gauche : 15 (12 - 16)

Autrement dit on se dirige vers le chaos 🤷‍♂️
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Encore une fois, c'est à prendre avec des pincettes, puisque c'est basé sur l'association entre les écart au premier tour entre les candidats qualifiés pour le second et la victoire au second en 2022, mais cette association pourrait être très différente cette fois-ci.
Par exemple, le modèle implique que, à avance ou retard égal, c'est beaucoup plus facile pour un candidat Ensemble de gagner au second tour que pour un candidat RN ou, plus encore, pour un candidat Nouveau Front Populaire.
Read 5 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Jun 15
We're at the point where Serge Klarsfeld, the most famous French Nazi hunter (who also wrote a very important book about the role of France in the Holocaust), explains that if he has to choose between the far-left and Le Pen's party he'll vote for the latter "without hesitation".
It's really hard to convey to a non-French person how revolutionary this is. If you had told that to someone 30 years ago, he would have thought you had completely lost your mind and laughed to your face.
I think people who claim the National Rally has been fully normalized are delusional, but still it's hard not to see there has been a sea change. 20 years ago over a million people went into the streets against the National Rally. Today it's just a handful of far-left activists.
Read 5 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
May 22
So many Arabic speakers have reported that the translation was grossly inaccurate without anyone even trying to deny it that, at this point, I no longer have any doubt that it's true.

You can learn a lot about people's intellectual honesty or lack thereof by looking at who shares this video and doesn't take it down even after the issues with the translation have been pointed out to them.
I've read all the community notes and checked dozens of replies to this tweet and others sharing the video, so I know some claim ISIS used the word to talk about sex slaves, but even if that's true that's not a defense of the translation since nobody is talking about pregnancy.
Nor is this the only issue with the translation, if you check the community notes, tweets and replies that people have made about it, you'll see that Arabic speakers have pointed out several other issues. It's crazy that we're even having a debate about whether it's misleading.
Read 12 tweets

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