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Chris Arnade 🐢 Profile picture
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11 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Finishing WW1 readings & hard to believe the period wouldn’t have ended in a massive violent war

I guess I subscribe to idea if you ran history forward from any one point many time with slight differences (kill baby Hitler, etc), it would follow pretty much same general path
I don’t know the name of that theory (history isn’t determined by one person, or one event), but I subscribe to it & I will die on that hill.
For those who asked, the books i read are in this very long thread (mixed in with Roman history…)
Periods of history I find most compelling

1) 1875 - 1935
2) 150 bc - 200 ad
3) 1450 -1650

All had immense changes & clashes (or really Genocide of) various cultures & world-views

All consequently are really depressing, but then again I think anything you study is depressing

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More from @Chris_arnade

Chris Arnade 🐢 Profile picture
7 Jul
No-name gets a little, uh, over enthusiastic
Need the Benny hill music playing
Reginald does normal
Read 5 tweets
Chris Arnade 🐢 Profile picture
2 Jul
To add to this. Most view Art markets as an anomaly, & other markets (bonds, stocks, commodities) as “real”.

Yet it is the opposite— Art markets are the purest, the rest limited version, & what they show is valuation is at its core about the symbolic (or faith)
This doesn’t mean purely symbolic value is a sham. The opposite. It is the core of how we assign value

Think about a baseball “documented to be hit by hank Aaron” as his 714th home run. It is indistinguishable from any other baseball used that year, yet far more valuable
That is why when experts say “something is overvalued based on fundamentals” you gotta laugh. They missing the point. There fundamentals is their myth they trying to get established

something can maintain value for a loooooooong time that is purely symbolic.
Read 6 tweets
Chris Arnade 🐢 Profile picture
29 Jun
A No-name night
Pretender No-name? Starting to think there are two smaller turtles and this is the no-name pretender
Middle photo is pretender? Is that scar on top of head? Or muck. Different colorization as well
Read 6 tweets
Chris Arnade 🐢 Profile picture
27 Jun
To geek out on one of my fav niche subjects: markets & prices!

I am valuation relativist, IMO Markets are about myth making & prices the reflection of the current dominant myth

Or, value of X is because more people believe whatever story has gotten X to the price it is at 1/
For Wall Street, that could be a mathematical model (hip in 90s), momentum model, cash flow model, flow model, or whatever framework currently is in vogue

That doesn’t mean value is entirely a Wild West. There are objective things you can say about different assets value 2/
Different assets have different boundary conditions that constraint prices in space & time.

Bonds eventually mature to 1 or 0, stocks are legal claim on % company, etc

At an extreme end is art, which is completely unbounded & in that sense the most pure market. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Chris Arnade 🐢 Profile picture
18 Jun
Once again, for the neolibs in the room:

Renting certainly has its place, but Home Ownership means gentrification plays out very differently in poor neighborhoods, giving residents an equity stake when it happens & allowing them to stay rather than be ejected
And the author might address this. But I won’t pay for a Bloomberg subscription and all my free articles are up. Sad!
Economist, who view people as numbers in a spreadsheet to move around, are not surprisingly, advocating that people should move around a lot. You know, to maximize efficiency!
Read 4 tweets
Chris Arnade 🐢 Profile picture
12 Jun
Oh no. Mudcat was an amazing man. And I had the great honor to know him well.

Really really sad.
He was a family friend, who worked with my father on local civil rights issues in the 60s/70s

He grew up in the Mosstown part of Lacoochee FL, called that because it the residents were so poor they used moss for bedding. All blacks who had survived & fled the Rosewood massacre
He had an amazing life. Satchel Page roommate, TV announcer, Blues Band (said he made more money from that than baseball), and writer.

(Pic on left is him with a sister, right is his families Sat night BBQ I tried to go to if I could)
Read 16 tweets

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