Thread by @DoomsdayDebunks

BBC asked what WHO think about the UK saying an exit wave in August is better than in September.

Dr Mike Ryan says he doesn't believe that's their logic.

@DrMikeRyan called such a plan "moral emptiness and emotional stupidity"

100% agree, will explain how I understand it.

Extract here:
Dr Mike Ryan explains later he honestly thinks deliberately permitting infection is not the aim

He is sure excellent scientists that advise the UK health system, will open up very cautiously and be ready to adjust.

However some people on Twitter and elsewhere, like that reporter, talk about an "exit wave" now rather than in September whatever the UK government policy is.

This is to explain what I think he meant by calling that moral emptiness and epidemiological stupidity.

First, we always aim to save lives and health as a high priority now. I think this is why Dr Mike Ryan called it "moral emptiness". We save lives now, if anyone is at risk. If they have more risks tomorrow, we continue to work to save their lives and health in the future.

That's especially clear with masks. No economic reason to remove masks. Masks reduce transmission, stop people getting infected, and save many people from long COVID, hospitalization and deaths NOW.

Removing masks risks life and health NOW.

For months we have worn masks in shops and on public transport with cases per day low.

On 19th July with cases high and rising fast, perhaps already 50,000 a day we will abandon this rule.

Why? It can't be science driven.

So, if we do this, it's epidemiological stupidity.

I'd rather not get drawn into speculating where this advice comes from.

Then on the "exit wave".

If you listen to UK news you may get the idea there always is an "exit wave". .
- New Zealand had no exit wave.
Some experts in the UK said China would have an exit wave in spring 2020
- China had no exit wave.
- Israel contained its outbreak with vaccine alone, no exit wave.

All these countries have had outbreaks from imported cases after they controlled their outbreaks

But didn't have the predicted exit waves from their own internal outbreaks.

They control each outbreak, again without an "exit wave".

The summer wave will lead to many children and young adults developing natural infection.

UK say this is not their intention and I think this is sincere.

But it is an inevitable side effect of their policy.

Our vaccines are more protective than natural infection.

Why expose these people to infection, by not wearing masks, when by wearing masks
1. you reduce the risk of infection now.
2. give the opportunity of much more effective immunity by vaccination later

As of early June, 15 in 1000 of UK population has long COVID,
10 in 1000 say long COVID adversely effects day to day lives
6 in 1000 have had long COVID for at least a year.
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

Doctors can't say when it will end. After-effects of SARS can last for years.

There are about 800,000 kids in each year band. If it spreads to herd immunity threshhold that's 80% (assuming R of 5) then if 8% get long COVID that

= 51,200 kids with long COVID in each year band.

Over half a million kids between ages 5 and 15 with long COVID.

Even if we had no way of stopping it, by wearing masks now, kids have a few more months of young healthy life before some become sick for months or more.

But with vaccines they have a likely end date, when the vaccines are approved for kids, probably later in 2021.

Then a big surge this summer = evolutionary pressure to evade vaccines more

We have 17 million people totally unvaccinated

This is Dr Sammie, a Scottish immunologist post doc researching in the US

She comments that what we have done is exactly how she would design an experiment to try to evolve a vaccine resistant strain of the virus

https://twitter.com/curexcomplex/status/1412919996116652032

SAGE in their document completed in early May or April 2020, before May 7 (but only published July 6) warn about a variant that could harmful to previously safe populations science20.com/robert_walker/…

They don't give examples but we don't really know why this virus doesn't kill kids often.

Suppose the next variant of concern is more deadly to kids?

This was a question raised for delta so clearly is a risk.

Suppose a new variant arises that the Pfizer and AZ vaccines are only 50% effective against for hospitalization or even death?

Every time a virus goes through a new person it develops a half dozen or so new changes in the code. Most do nothing. But we are giving it lots of chances to develop new ideas.

We will soon have 50,000 and then 100,000 new cases = 100,000 new virus variant incubators a day.

We got four new variants of concern in the first 100 million cases. Several million new cases in UK could incubate a new variant of concern with evolutionary pressure to escape vaccines - or amplify an imported variant that has that capability already. science20.com/robert_walker/… .

Delta already has 36% vaccine escape for asymptomatic people according to latest data from Israel. webmd.com/vaccines/covid…
.
So, many of our vaccinated will have delta variant viruses incubating in them.

Sorry, doesn't mean vaccine resistant variants evolve in vaccinated people
nature.com/articles/s4157…
But however they evolve widespread vaccination gives vaccine escape an evolutionary advantage.
Continues:

https://twitter.com/DoomsdayDebunks/status/1414077127541067778

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