Here is my latest $TSLA forecast thread (20 tweets), updated to include actual Q2 deliveries & other forecast changes.
4 tweets summarizing my forecast
11 tweets with updated charts
5 tweets with charts that didn't change, for those who haven't seen them
/1
I expect Tesla to deliver over ~863K vehicles in full year 2021, which would be nearly a 73% increase over 2020. 👀🎉🥳🥂
/2
I expect >$10B of Automotive Revenue in Q2: a first for Tesla (but certainly not for the last time).
The $0.1B charge to Restructuring & Other is the Bitcoin impairment I'm expecting.
SG&A should decline significantly due to less CEO bonus.
Both are non-cash expenses.
/3
I expect Automotive Gross Margin excluding Reg. Credits to improve to just under 26% on improving production mix from China where cost of sales per vehicle is lower.
I'm forecasting that we'll be lucky to see many Semis or Model Y from Texas or Berlin by the end of the year.
/4
I expect ~$12B in total revenue in Q2; you can see my forecast in red bars here, with actual bars in gray.
I also added a dashed line box to show what the chart looked like the last time @TESLAcharts updated it (before I had to take over it for him 😜).
/5
Here's a S3XY chart showing my forecast for Q3 and Q4 next to actual deliveries since the beginning of 2018.
I like to forecast at the midpoint of what I think is a likely range of outcomes, so there should be room for Tesla to beat my forecast.
/6
Here's a chart showing the quarterly delivery ramp for Model Y vs. Model 3.
/7
Here's a chart showing the production and delivery totals I expect as Austin and Berlin ramp up over the next few years:
/8
Here's a chart showing my favorite profitability metric: Adjusted EBITDA: quarterly profit before having to pay for non-controllable expenses like taxes, interest on debt, or depreciation on existing assets.
/9
Here's a few charts that show 4 different TTM (seasonally-adjusted) profit metrics:
Here's what I'm expecting for Regulatory Credits revenue going forward.
As a reminder:
Tesla sells surplus EV credits to rival automakers who did not sell enough EVs to comply with laws requiring them to, so they can avoid paying the fines they would otherwise owe.
/11
Here's my projection of CEO Performance Award stock-based compensation expense.
>70% of the $2.283B maximum that can be expensed over the 10-year life of the plan has been expensed already and >$1B of that hit over the last 4 quarters, so I expect it to taper down rapidly.
/12
Here's a graphic illustrating how Tesla earns its average dollar of revenue by category, smoothed using a 12 trailing month average.
Only about 5% of Tesla revenue has ever come from regulatory credits, but to hear some people talk about them, you'd think it was 90%. 😂🤣
/13
This chart shows how $TSLA spends its average dollar of revenue, with Non-GAAP profits shown in dark green in every quarter when Tesla's total expenses were less than the whole dollar, on average.
/14
Here's a chart showing the relationship between production, deliveries, beginning inventory, and ending inventory, by quarter.
/15
Here's a stacked area chart showing how Tesla's deliveries will grow over time, by production location and quarter.
The legend hints at how the ramp will continue in 2022 and beyond.
/16
The next 3 slides are 3 different visualizations showing Tesla's US unit sales vs. the other premium brands.
Each of the mini charts below show growth/(decline) from 2017 to 2020.
/17
Here's a treemap showing the magnitude of Tesla's US unit sales by model vs. the models so by other premium automakers.
Many do not know that in 2020, Tesla had 2 of the top 3 selling premium models in the US: Model 3 and Model Y.
/18
Here's a different way of visualizing the same 2020 US unit sales by model.
The $TSLA growth story is illustrated pretty clearly by just looking at how quarterly sales have grown over time, but- perhaps even more remarkably- the story is still in its early chapters.
/20 (you made it to the end!)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly earnings forecast through 2025 and will post videos publicly over the next 2 weeks (subscribe if you want early access).
Let's see some pretty charts for the first 34 slides.
1/69 $TSLA
Tesla may yet break all previous production & delivery records in 2024, as they've done for many years now. ... and I expect they'll do it again in 2025, 2026, 2027...
🚀 The S3XY growth story is really just getting started...
2/69
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y.
Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).
3/69
Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly earnings forecast through 2025 and will make some videos tomorrow and post them publicly over the next 10 days (subscribe if you want early access).
Let's see some pretty charts for the first 30 slides.
1/69 $TSLA
Tesla will break all previous production & delivery records in 2024, by a wide margin, as they've done for many years now.
... and then they'll do it again in 2025, and 2026, and 2027... 🚀
The growth story is really just getting started...
2/69
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y.
Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).
Hello, friends. I have updated my Tesla charts and quarterly forecast through 2025 and will make a bunch of videos about what's changed (subscribe for early access).
Q3 may not break many records, because factory upgrades limited production, but Q4 probably will. 📈
1/69 $TSLA
Tesla will break all previous production & delivery records in 2023, by a wide margin, as they've done for many years now.
... and then they'll do it again next year, and the year after that, and the year after that... 🚀
The growth story is really just getting started...
2/69
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y.
Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).
Now that Ford, GM, and Tesla have all reported their first half of 2023 earnings results, I have updated my charts comparing the trailing 12 months' actuals against each other and the prior 7 years.
Despite selling less than half as many vehicles:
🧵 $F $GM $TSLA
... and collecting barely more than half as much revenue:
... Tesla is earning more profit: 🤓
(GAAP Net Income)
I have updated my earnings forecast model and charts with the record production & deliveries already reported for Q2.
Here's a chart showing the deliveries by model and production location in my forecast model:
Tesla doesn't report actual deliveries by model and production… https://t.co/knGxjzdKjMtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
If you're used to seeing my forecast threads, this one's going to flow a bit differently.
I decided to lead off with the same 4 familiar delivery charts, but next I'm skipping straight to my EPS estimate and income statement forecast table, for those only interested in the… https://t.co/RyM8apPQu4twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Here's a chart of the Adjusted EBITDA I'm forecasting for Tesla alongside the history of this profit metric going back to 2018.
I don't have any robotaxi fare or autonomous robot revenue in my forecast, but I do assume that FSD Beta performance will gradually but steadily… https://t.co/0LqPuzeuODtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
I will record a series of videos tomorrow discussing these charts and my detailed forecast model, making 1 video Public per day at youtube.com/jrs97t (my subscribers will have early access).
The growth story continues. 📈
1/69
Earlier today, a notorious short seller claimed Tesla will never sell more than 400,000 vehicles in a quarter again... 🤣
Meanwhile, Tesla continues expanding global production of its S3XY lineup, and record deliveries will follow in 2023 and into the future.
2/69
Tesla makes the two best-selling luxury vehicles in the world: Model 3 and Model Y. Model 3 sales are still growing, but not by as much as Model Y, which continues ramping production up at both of Tesla's newest factories (Austin and Berlin).