Thread by @ICannot_Enough

Here is my latest $TSLA forecast thread (20 tweets), updated to include actual Q2 deliveries & other forecast changes.

4 tweets summarizing my forecast
11 tweets with updated charts
5 tweets with charts that didn't change, for those who haven't seen them

/1

I expect Tesla to deliver over ~863K vehicles in full year 2021, which would be nearly a 73% increase over 2020. 👀🎉🥳🥂

/2

I expect >$10B of Automotive Revenue in Q2: a first for Tesla (but certainly not for the last time).

The $0.1B charge to Restructuring & Other is the Bitcoin impairment I'm expecting.

SG&A should decline significantly due to less CEO bonus.

Both are non-cash expenses.

/3

I expect Automotive Gross Margin excluding Reg. Credits to improve to just under 26% on improving production mix from China where cost of sales per vehicle is lower.

I'm forecasting that we'll be lucky to see many Semis or Model Y from Texas or Berlin by the end of the year.

/4

I expect ~$12B in total revenue in Q2; you can see my forecast in red bars here, with actual bars in gray.

I also added a dashed line box to show what the chart looked like the last time @TESLAcharts updated it (before I had to take over it for him 😜).

/5

Here's a S3XY chart showing my forecast for Q3 and Q4 next to actual deliveries since the beginning of 2018.

I like to forecast at the midpoint of what I think is a likely range of outcomes, so there should be room for Tesla to beat my forecast.

/6

Here's a chart showing the quarterly delivery ramp for Model Y vs. Model 3.

/7

Here's a chart showing the production and delivery totals I expect as Austin and Berlin ramp up over the next few years:

/8

Here's a chart showing my favorite profitability metric: Adjusted EBITDA: quarterly profit before having to pay for non-controllable expenses like taxes, interest on debt, or depreciation on existing assets.

/9

Here's a few charts that show 4 different TTM (seasonally-adjusted) profit metrics:

Gross profit (variable margin)
Adj. EBITDA (profit before items beyond mgmt's immediate control)
Non-GAAP Profit (excluding non-cash stock-based compensation)
GAAP Earnings (all-in profit)

/10

Here's what I'm expecting for Regulatory Credits revenue going forward.

As a reminder:
Tesla sells surplus EV credits to rival automakers who did not sell enough EVs to comply with laws requiring them to, so they can avoid paying the fines they would otherwise owe.

/11

Here's my projection of CEO Performance Award stock-based compensation expense.

>70% of the $2.283B maximum that can be expensed over the 10-year life of the plan has been expensed already and >$1B of that hit over the last 4 quarters, so I expect it to taper down rapidly.

/12

Here's a graphic illustrating how Tesla earns its average dollar of revenue by category, smoothed using a 12 trailing month average.

Only about 5% of Tesla revenue has ever come from regulatory credits, but to hear some people talk about them, you'd think it was 90%. 😂🤣

/13

This chart shows how $TSLA spends its average dollar of revenue, with Non-GAAP profits shown in dark green in every quarter when Tesla's total expenses were less than the whole dollar, on average.

/14

Here's a chart showing the relationship between production, deliveries, beginning inventory, and ending inventory, by quarter.

/15

Here's a stacked area chart showing how Tesla's deliveries will grow over time, by production location and quarter.

The legend hints at how the ramp will continue in 2022 and beyond.

/16

The next 3 slides are 3 different visualizations showing Tesla's US unit sales vs. the other premium brands.

Each of the mini charts below show growth/(decline) from 2017 to 2020.

/17

Here's a treemap showing the magnitude of Tesla's US unit sales by model vs. the models so by other premium automakers.

Many do not know that in 2020, Tesla had 2 of the top 3 selling premium models in the US: Model 3 and Model Y.

/18

Here's a different way of visualizing the same 2020 US unit sales by model.

No other premium automaker had 2 models that sold as well as the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y did last year.
public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…
/19

The $TSLA growth story is illustrated pretty clearly by just looking at how quarterly sales have grown over time, but- perhaps even more remarkably- the story is still in its early chapters.

/20 (you made it to the end!)