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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Feb 8

People are going to react strongly to this comparison, so I really do mean this narrowly. But when you read about first 100 days of the New Deal, you hear about Congress just being totally overwhelmed with new legislation and orders, things being broken or rebuilt every day. 1/

I wonder if the sense was the same as we are feeling today (and yes, a lot of people ((mostly) Southern) Democrats and Republicans alike, were concerned FDR was trying to make himself a dictator). That's not (at all) to predict this will be as successful as the New Deal 2/

or that it will be remembered nearly as fondly. That's just the only time I can think of where so many things have been blown up so radically quickly in politics. 3/3

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Jan 29

The move to allow podcasters and bloggers into the Press Corps is part of a broader shift on the Right, that really starts with @elonmusk's acquisition of X. Before that, when conservatives complained about bias and censorship on social media, the left/lib response 1/

was "well go ahead and build your own social media site." Which everyone knew was very difficult. And then there would be moves to get whoever hosted the new site to refuse to host it and the response would be "well build your own hosting platform" and so forth. 2/

Musk's acquisition of Twitter/X really looks increasingly like an important turning point in the conservative approach, which in the face of this became "well what can you do?" It was a realization "no, actually we can take these institutions and make them ours." 3/

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Jan 21

To understand the Right re J6: They believe that the reason the dividing line between J6 getting prosecuted and, say, Portland rioters not is because norms are set by liberals to protect liberal ingroups while allowing the prosecution of outgroups. 1/

This is also the dividing line between Trumpy populists and GOP establishment types; the latter says "well we should prosecute the goons in OR too" while the former says that is hopelessly naive bc, again, the lines are set by liberals to protect their ingroups. 2/

This isn't a defense of the populists at all. This is just to explain the "burn it down" mindset: "it" is a rigged game with rules set by liberals. If this sounds like left critiques of the past decade, well, it's why we're getting this horseshoe effect of, say, RFK & Trump. 3/3

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Jan 10

So there's been a lot of talk about Justice Barrett and Supreme Court ideology in general, which happened to occur as I'm getting a paper on Supreme Court ideology ready for publishing. The answer, unsurprisingly, is Justice Barrett is no Souter (much less Stevens). 1/

This relies on a computer program that looks at the frequency with which justices vote with which other. It then uses these pairs to rank Justices by ideology and to estimate where the ideological fissures on the Court are. Here's where things stood in 2016-18. 2/

This should be familiar to anyone with a passing acquaintance with the Court. You have the four libs, with a divide between Ginsburg/Sotomayor and Kagan/Breyer, a BIG divide, and then the conservative justices. Note that I pool terms together to smooth out noise. 3/

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Dec 11, 2024

Since we're doing the autism anecdote thing, I'll share some. During law school I coached high school debate at Chapel Hill High School and Durham Academy (my star student, one @JeffJacksonNC, who I won't embarrass with stories). There was a student, John, diagnosed w/ ADHD. 1

(not his real name btw). John was...strange. He sort of mumbled his speech, had weird facial expressions, had trouble writing in straight lines, and would say bizarre things. Once on a trip he just busted out "once I found a CD in the snow. It had no scratches, except Track 1."

Then complete silence. I just thought John was weird, as did the kids, and that debate wasn't for him, but his doctor had suggested doing speech activities to overcome his difficulties so whatever. Anyway, I was talking with my sister,who was getting a Master's in Special Ed. 3/

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Sean T at RCP

@SeanTrende

Dec 10, 2024

One of the lessons from the past month or so is that people don’t understand the podcastverse, its ideological ecosystem, and/or how men/boys < 30 get their information/news these days.

Like seriously there is an entire genre of podcasters dedicated to this dude’s worldview. The whole loosely interrelated UFC/Rogan/manosphere/plant medicine genre/genres don’t map onto modern politics in any way that seem obvious to people over 30 but make perfect sense to youngz

If you have teen kids, particularly boys, you really need to pay attention to their tik-tok/podcast consumption (a) because there are some deeply disturbing worldviews promoted there but also

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