Professor Kalkyl Profile picture
Jul 12, 2021 21 tweets 10 min read Read on X
1/x Okay, grab a c̷u̷p̷ ̷o̷f̷ ̷c̷o̷f̷f̷e̷e can of water. Today I will tell you about one of the coolest and most innovative brands that you've never heard of. This is...

Liquid Death - a company selling canned water. Image
2/x Before Mike Cessario founded Liquid Death in 2017, he worked as a Creative Director over at Netflix on shows like House of Cards, Narcos and Stranger Things.

And before that, he played in metal and hardcore/punk bands, which obviously influenced some choices later on... Image
3/x There's an ideology called Straight Edge that sprung from hardcore/punk in the 70's, which basically means that you rebel against the mainstream through self-control. No alcohol, no drugs & so on. Veganism/vegetarism is now common in these circles as well. Image
4/x That is basically where the idea came from to make water cool again. Also, the "usual metal fan" of course loves horror themed artwork and would therefore join the cult immediately too, straight edge or not. I mean, why wouldn't they? Image
5/x That is probably why Live Nation invested in the company's $23M Series B round last year (on a $82M pre-money valuation), and started offering only Liquid Death on every event for a period of time afterwards. Image
6/x The two horror inspired main taglines "Murder Your Thirst" & "Death To Plastic" are all over their cans, banners, merch (yes, a water company can sell merch too!) and whatever else.

Even the "contact us" on their website has an eerie feel to it, it's called "summon us". Image
7/x Although, the aggressive metal/punk image is not something they take very serious. If you read their "about" page (pasted in Word for highlights), you immediately see that they are doing it just for effect; for fun.

They even call their own approach "completely unnecessary". Image
8/x And except the gruesome gory graphics and rough metal inspired taglines, they are doing all kinds of crazy stuff that no beverage company has ever done before, least of all a company selling "mountain water".

The merch shop is just amazing: ImageImageImage
9/x The most awesome item of all is probably the life-sized Executioner, priced at $64. Image
10/x Or how about this zombie protection device called "The No-Brainer", which was released together with Netflix as a promo thing for the "Army of the Dead" movie release. It cools your head so zombies can't feel the warmth of your brain.... ImageImageImage
11/x And speaking of movies, they are actually producing a full-length horror movie called "Dead Till Death" as well, and I have a feeling it will revolve around water.. thirst.. and plastic. ImageImage
12/x They are also masters of using consumer feedback to their advantage, both good and bad (especially bad.. more on that in the next tweet). I think this is genius. ImageImage
13/x As if the movie productions wasn't enough, they have now released two full-length albums written solely with negative reviews as lyrics, called Greatest Hates - with musicians from Rise Against, Anti-Flag, Alkaline Trio & so on.

My fav: "Dumbest Name Ever For Water". Image
14/x And of course, they are available on colored vinyl. Why the hell wouldn't they be? Image
15/x They also have some sort of exclusive club which I think involves unlimited Liquid Death deliveries to your fridge, Country Club merch and events/concerts. A life-long membership costs $125,000 and can be bought in the shop. Image
16/x Another way of getting unlimited cans is by using their Killer Baby Namer (name generator). If you actually name your kid something like "Megalodong Murderbones Johnson" and can prove it, the subscription is allegedly yours forever. Image
17/x They have also created this weird "fake" anti plastic organization called Keep The Underworld Beautiful website with lots of weird video clips, which just redirects you to the LD online shop if you want to donate. keeptheunderworldbeautiful.org ImageImage
18/x And the reason I wrote fake in quotation marks is that they are actually giving away money to *real* anti plastic charities. For every sold can, 5 cent goes to these two organizations: Image
19/x Oh, I almost forgot.. One of the most bizarre items in the shop is their plush toys of plastic tortured animals called Cutie Polluties. This trio costs $75. Image
20/x Liquid Death wants to challenge the plastic bottle water status quo, and they do it purposefully. By drinking LD, you can be healthy, be cool, feel like being in a cult AND help save the planet. I love it.

"Take a simple idea and take it seriously." as Charlie Munger said.. ImageImageImage
21/x So, whenever you want to sponsor an anonymous Swedish guy writing about finance and entrepreneurship on Twitter, let me know @Cessario! It's really impressive what you are doing.

Btw, @rorysutherland - do you know about Liquid Death? I'd love to hear what you think!

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More from @Prof_Kalkyl

Jan 1, 2023
Rivstartar 2023 med en casetråd! Här kommer några bolag från bevakningslistan. Blandad kompott.

1. 🇫🇮 $MEKKO - Anrikt finskt designhus som på senare år rört sig åt luxury, vilket drivit både top & bottom line. Moderisk? 10x FCF 24E.

7y CAGRs
Revenue +8%
EBIT +54%
ROIC (avg) 57%
2. 🇳🇴 $EPR - Norska lågprisjätten, som förvisso "alltid" sett billig ut, handlas nu enligt konsensus till ~9x FCF två år ut. Borde väl vara boom time för denna typen av biz framöver? Knäckfrågan är väl marginalen.

7y CAGRs
Revenue +10%
EBIT +16%
ROIC (avg) 22%
3. 🇨🇦 $ATZ.TO - "Everyday luxury" för kvinnor. Kallas ibland för "Kanadas Lululemon". Fin lönsam tillväxthistorik. Välskött. Grundaren är ordförande & storägare. VD har varit i bolaget 35 år. Svårbedömd moderisk. 13x EBIT FY25E.

7y CAGRs
Revenue +19%
EBIT +26%
ROIC (avg) 19%
Read 14 tweets
Sep 4, 2022
1/ Det har nu gått snart två år sedan dagen jag fick se denna fula skissen för första gången, och lite drygt ett år sedan jag lade plåtverktygen på hyllan.

Här kommer en lång tråd som går lite behind the scenes på @Quartr_App 👇🏼
2/ Let’s set the stage med en låt. Dra på denna innan du fortsätter läsa, för den ultimata upplevelsen 🎧 open.spotify.com/track/0dVOO1yF…
3/ Här är mitt första DM från @stock_trap. Vid denna tiden var vi båda helt anonyma, och Sami blev en av de absolut första från FinTwit som jag connectade med IRL.

Jag fick efter några dagars chattande en fet pitch över Zoom och blev såld. I’m in!
Read 25 tweets
Jul 14, 2022
Here’s my Quality Universe. A large collection of great businesses.

After today’s update it’s ~250 companies from 15 markets 🌎
I don’t have a hard definition for quality though, but I look at ROIC/ROE, margins, network effects, switching costs, brand strength, longevity, market share, scale/cost advantages, management, etc. The usual suspects.

Text version A-M:
Text version M-Z:
Read 4 tweets
Jun 26, 2022
1/ In 1984, marking the 50th anniversary of Graham & Dodd's release of 'Security Analysis', Buffett gave a great speech at Columbia Business School about the core principles of value investing.

These principles are as relevant today as in 1934, just as Buffett predicted.
2/ The death of security analysis..? Buffett's speech was sort of an opposing response to Michael Jensen's (a University of Rochester professor) speech about the efficient-market hypothesis, which he gave the same day.
3/ The coin toss metaphor at the beginning of the speech was actually stolen from Jensen, but Buffett added a little twist.
Read 18 tweets
Mar 12, 2022
1/ Vad kollar ni på för case just nu? Jag har tyvärr varit lite dålig på att göra ny research på senare tid, men vid första anblick i bevakningslistorna ser många namn intressanta ut. Här kommer en tråd med några halvbakta idéer.
2/ $RICK handlas nu i buyback territory, ~15x FCF eller P/E 10. Känns som bra value mtp bolagets fina kapitalallokering de senaste åren och deras growth runway. Borde kunna växa 15-20% ett tag till. Förvisso en hairy bransch samt några gamla plumpar i mgmts historik, men likväl.
3/ $MNST är nu nere på Covid-nivåer, dvs <20x EBIT, trots att man är en av två överlägsna spelare i en nisch som väntas CAGRa 7-10% kommande 5 år. Monster är stora, men de omsätter "bara" ~$6b mot $KO's nästan $40b. Inte snorbilligt, men en konservativ biz av mkt hög kvalitet.
Read 19 tweets
Feb 9, 2022
$EVO Q4'21 👀

Revenue +69%
*N. America +168%
*Asia +117%
*Live +49%
*RNG +9%
*BTG +45%
EBITDA +115%
*marg. 68.9% (65.1)
EBIT +118%
*marg. 61.5% (47.8)
Net Profit +113%
*marg. 57.1% (45.4)
EPS +90%
Geo split;
Business as usual på EBITDA-nivå även 2022
Read 6 tweets

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