Now that we're over half a week into AFR, and 17lands has ALSA data available, I'll be making underrated cards threads again! Probably won't be daily, but we'll see. First off: Kick In the Door. 1/x
ALSA of 8.03 in Bo3, coming in as the 7th least picked card. Also looks like it's gone down since the beginning of the set, which is pretty interesting. 2/x
First off, a disclaimer: I know that various people were pretty high on Kick In the Door during spoilers; I had it as third best red common. I do think that is it significantly worse than I thought it would be, and would not advocate for putting it in most red decks. 3/x
The comparison that I and several others drew was to Guiding Voice and First Day of Class (and you know how much I like those): you get a +1/+1 counter, haste, and some value. Granted, that value is less than a card, but also is immediate, and doesn't cost more mana. 4/x
The main problem with this evaluation of Kick In is that aggressive red decks often don't venture. When you only venture 1-2 times a game, venture becomes mostly useless. And when you factor in Boots of Speed being an excellent source of haste, Kick In goes way down. 5/x
However, I still think there is a rare home where Kick In can shine (and when you end up here, you can get them essentially for free): RG pack tactics, *specifically* with a lot of repeatable venture from uncommons and rares. 6/x
RG is the main home I was imagining for Kick In initially, where you can use its haste to get Pack Tactics online early with 2s. It turns out the venture is bad enough in most RG decks that Boots just becomes way better for that purpose. But some green cards can change this. 7/x
First off: I'm not talking about Find the Path or You Find a Cursed Idol. These don't contribute to the RG gameplan very well. But the same things that make me want Kick In might also make me more midrange, and so more in want of venture+ramp. 8/x
Even Intrepid Outlander at uncommon doesn't make me want to play one-shot venture commons; the card is great, but mostly as a 2/3 reach, and the venture trigger doesn't actually happen too often. The real enablers for RG venture are Wandering Troubador, Varis, and Ellywick. 9/x
All three of these cards are strong venture engines just by themselves. Obviously this applies for all Gx pairs, but sometimes when you get these, red will be the other open color. And when that happens, you can start picking Kick In higher. 10/x
I don't think one Troubador would be enough for me to start playing Kick In over Boots, but I'd probably do so at two, and definitely at three. Again, the key point is that venture snowballs: Kick In as your fourth venture is extremely strong if you get the first 3 free. 11/x
As a final note, the reason why I focused on green here is that RW still probably wants Boots as an equipment, UR doesn't wnat the haste effect much, and RB doesn't really have good repeatable venture. I find it hard to imagine wanting Kick In in any pair that isn't RG. 12/x
Conclusion: Kick In is a card that is mostly not very good, as red doesn't generally venture much, so Boots of Speed is usually just a better version of the effect. But, it is still possible to get enough venture engines in green to justify its inclusion. 13/13
Was talking on Discord a bit about why I think the UW tap deck failed design-wise this format, and figured I'd translate my points here.
So, here's a thread: 1/x
It's pretty clear by now that the UW tap archetype just isn't working in WOE.
UW is the worst color pair in WOE on 17lands - just barely above 50% winrate, which is atrocious, same as LTR scry elves.
I think the reasons for this are actually quite interesting. 2/x
1. The simplest reason is just that blue and white are the two worst colors in WOE.
Every set has color imbalances, this set happens to have those converge on UW being weak. The card quality just isn't there, the commons just not as deep as Jund. 3/x
Bit of a different kind of "underrated card" thread today. I usually don't do rares, and one could reasonably argue that this card is actually mostly *overrated*.
But today, I want to focus on why and how 17lands stats dramatically underrate the card Invasion of Kaldheim.
1/x
As a rare that gets picked a lot higher than I take it (3.14 ALSA in Bo3!), I don't have that much experience actually playing with the card. But it reads pretty strong to me, and has seemed impressive when I've cast it.
So why does it have a whopping *48.8%* GIH WR in Bo1?
2/x
Having a GIH WR below 50% is really bad - by this metric, Invasion of Kaldheim is the 19th worst card in the set, in the vicinity of unsupported buildarounds like Kaheera, Dina, Theros, and Arcavios. If you were drafting purely based on GIH WR, you would never pick it.
As promised, underrated card threads! First up: Urn of Godfire.
I expected this card to be completely unplayable, but recently I've been trying it a lot, and have honestly been impressed.
It's not great overall, but I hope to show where and how to use it in this thread. 1/15
Urn is currently the 10th least-picked card on 17lands in Bo1 (12th in Bo3), with ALSA 8.62 (8.35 in Bo3). Its pick rate seems to be staying roughly even in both Bo1 and Bo3.
So where is Urn good? Well, one of the more obvious use cases is as a bad hard removal spell.
1+6 mana is a lot to remove something, but with a lot of bombs in the set, it can sometimes be quite important to have actual hard removal in your deck.
Thinking of doing underrated card threads again for this set, probably going to try for 2-3 times a week for a bit, and see how it goes?
But first I figure I should talk about Seed of Hope, which was very underrated, but is likely moving towards overrated as people hype it. 1/7
At some point Seed of Hope was the least-picked green common by ALSA, while having something like a 60ish% GIH WR in Bo1.
But after a bunch of content creators have been talking it up, this is no longer the case - it's quickly trending up in ALSA, and down to 56% GIH WR. 2/7
So how good is Seed of Hope? Well, if it didn't have the clause about permanents, it would be like a Consider that gains 2 life (with small differences like being able to bin the second card), which is great! Consider is solid but unexciting in limited, and 2 life is huge. 3/7
Okay I should be asleep right now but instead I did a bit more digging, and it's possible I'm missing something, but it seems that 17lands data contains an exhaustive list of all possible sets of commons in Arena packs of DMU, and that this list is surprisingly small. 1/7
So basically I took the 17lands DMU draft dataset I've been using (which is a bit old, but still has 251,574 drafts), and looked at, for each common, how many different sets of commons it appeared with. And it turns out that the answer is always between 2998 and 3000. 2/7
With about 100 commons, and 10 commons per pack, we can expect each common to show up 25k times, so if the possible sets of commons each show up equally, we'd expect to see each one about 8-9 times. 3/7