Thread by @HamdiAMalik

1. Does the Quds Force retain command & control over Iraqi Shia militias? This has turned to the million dollar question. We hear contradicting stories. Reuters quotes three militia sources and two Iraqi security sources saying that…reuters.com/world/middle-e…

2 ...Hossein Taeb, the IRGC intelligence chief met with Iraqi militia leaders and urged them "to step up attacks on U.S. targets”. Amwaj reports about the same meeting but quotes its own sources saying that the Shia“ factions do not "obey" Iran!
amwaj.media/article/exclus…

3. A few days ago the AP quoted militia and political leaders saying militias tend to disobey Qaani. Then, @nafisehkBBC quoted an Iraqi official saying: Qaani “orders and says the last word… and doesn’t let them argue much”!
bit.ly/2UGnsIC

https://twitter.com/nafisehkBBC/status/1413961633383256064

4. Which one is correct? Iran ordering the militias to attack and they obey or Iran tries to calm them down & they disobey? As analysts, while we benefit from the great journalism offered by brave people on the ground, we have our own analytical tools to resort to & find answers.

5. If I was a muqawama militia leader in Iraq, would I want to signal breaking from Iran by disobeying direct orders? Probably not! Iran as a nation state and a theocracy is offering material, conceptual and symbolic support without which the militias probably wouldn’t survive.

6. For starters, Iran is happy to provide the militias with weaponry without going thru the official Iraqi channels and then allow them to show the weapons off while they still have Iranian serial numbers on them, such as the Mohajer 6 UCAVs displayed in PMFs’ military parade.

7. The militias have shady financial transactions with Iran that help them sort out the financial side.The legal side and Iraq’s sovereignty, they simply don’t care about? It is hard to imagine the militias can get hold of similar weapons from any other country.

8. Iran has a military industry that can upgrade militias’ weapons such as T72 tanks upgraded in IRGC Zein al-Dinn tank overhaul, help them improve their rockets and probably develop a missile programme in addition to providing them with cruise missiles.
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

9. Iran provides more than weaponry. IR is training the militias on info ops, propaganda and cyberspace attacks. Through its IRTVU Iran has helped them launch tens of TV and Radio channels and continues to provide financial and technical support. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

10. Iran as a nation state is able to open doors for the muqawama militias in the political sphere too. It is true that after the killing of Suleimani/Muhanis this power has diminished, but they are playing the long game, and will certainly need Iran’s help in future.

11. It is also true that the establishment of the PMF reduced their reliance on hand outs from Iran, still they need Iran to increase their revenue by doing shady businesses. The militias and Iran scratch each other's back in the financial game. ctc.usma.edu/back-into-the-…

12. The militias are ideologically linked to an axis that is religiously sanctioned by the Wali al-Faqih and that they are obliged to follow Khamenei's orders at all times. Yes, Khameeni does not interfere in their day to day business...

13 ...and that leaves a fair amount of room for them to sometimes engage in activities that are not necessarily sanctioned by him. But when he orders directly, they all listen, full stop. Now to disobey Qaani or Taeb could mean disobeying Khamenei, depending on the circumstances.

14. Do they want to risk it? I don’t think so. Do they want to lose the ideological framework in which they operate and link themselves to other clerics such as Sistani or Muqtada al-Sadr, for less benefits? It doesn't seem likely.

15. So, when I hear stories about Iraqi militias becoming independent of Iran, I find it hard to believe. Do people like Qais al-Khazali want more freedom of movement? Not entirely unlikely. Do militias sometimes disagree with IRGC commanders on tactical measures. It is possible.

16. Does this anger Iran? Probably not. As long as they abide by the pro Islamic Republic, anti-U.S., anti-Israel agenda, let them be more independent. It could actually benefit Iran, if that means they take care of their own day to day operations themselves.

17. It brings the Islamic Republic less trouble and could give the Iran a comfortable space to deny responsibility for actions that ultimately benefit them, while negotiating with the West on its nuclear programme.

18. Look at the conversations IRGC-affiliated people have on social media. Some of them are saying due to failure in Iran’s strategy, expelling U.S. forces from Iraq is now known to be an Iranian goal, whereas it should be known as an Iraqi muqawama objective.

19. This raises suspicions about a possible information operation led by the Islamic Republic, in which Iran and its proxies tell media outlets about this purported rebellion on the muqawama side to deny responsibility for their actions.

20. But ultimately it boils down to this question: do muqawama leaders want to disassociate themselves from a country that can provide them so much and is considered to be their strategic depth? It doesn't seem likely.

21. Let’s not forget that this very country created them in the first place. How for example in 2004 Muhandis persuaded elements within Jaysh al-Mahdi to defect and create AAH. Every single of the muqawama militias has a similar story. END.

https://twitter.com/HamdiAMalik/status/1348040714685452293