Thread by @athsstats

Are there key races pre-#Olympics which give unique insights into an event as unpredictable as the #1500m?

Does the #OsloDL Dream Mile, steeped in history, present a reliable form guide?

@David_Tarbotton @insideaths @melbtrackclub @WorldAthletics @runnerstribe

I analysed the last eight Oslo Dream Miles in Olympic years, 1984-2016, to see how runners performed in the Olympics. Note no Dream Mile in 2004 due to track modifications, converting the unique 6-lane setting to the traditional 8-lane track.

There were 84 participants in these Dream Miles (this data only includes those that ran under 4 minutes for the Mile). Of these participants, 57 went on to run in the Olympic 1500m of that year, and 33 of them (58%) made the Olympic final.

Of those 33 finalists that ran Oslo, 10 won medals
🥇
Morceli 🇩🇿1996 (1st Oslo)
Cacho 🇪🇸1992 (5th)
🥈
Makhloufi 🇩🇿2016 (3rd)
El Guerrouj 🇲🇦2000 (1st)
Cacho 🇪🇸1996 (2nd)
El Basir🇲🇦1992 (8th)
Elliot 🇬🇧 1988 (2nd)
🥉
Willis 🇳🇿2016 (4th)
Suleiman 🇶🇦1992 (9th)
Herold 🇩🇪1988 (3rd)

In addition, Oslo at time has also held an invitational 1500m event. Two winners of that event went on to win Olympic gold:
🥇Makhloufi 🇩🇿 2012
🥇Rono 🇰🇪 1988
So in 1988 and 1992, all the Olympic 1500m medalists were running in Oslo.

The results below from this year:
Australia's best placing previously was 4th (Doyle 1991 & Crouch 1974)
Of the 18 runners that placed in Oslo & ran the Olympic 1500m, 15 have reached the final

Random stats from this race:
Lewandowski_oldest person to break 3:50
Edwards_ 25th youngest to break 3:50. German Jens-Peter Herold was 87 days younger than Edwards when he ran 0.05 seconds faster to place 3rd at the Dream Mile in 1988. He went on to win the 1500m bronze medal.

Symmetry in numbers?

All winners of Oslo Dream Mile since 1988 have reached the Olympic final (Moorcroft in 1984 ran the 5000m)

The placings for the Oslo winners in the final have been:
🥇
🥈
4th, 6th, 8th, 10th, 12th

Good luck to this year's Dream Mile winner!

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