Attached is the seven-day rolling rate on a log scale of hospital admissions by age group. As expected, hospitalisations remain lowest among children and teenagers. But what is striking, and concerning, is that hospitalisations in the categories 0-5 and 6-17 are back at…
at their peak levels and are still rising. Remember these hospitalisations lag by at least a week, and probably a bit longer, surging infections (the PM’s prediction there would be 50k daily infections on « freedom » day 19 July almost came true today). As I say, this is…
a log scale so in a visual sense it overstates the hospitalisations of and risks to children. But it is a reminder that Covid-19 can be serious even for the youngest.
PS it is the hospital admissions rate per 100,000 people

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More from @Peston

12 Jul
Amidst the anger at racist football supporters and the anxieties caused by ending all Covid19 restrictions, a big story has been widely ignored. Namely that the overseas aid budget won’t be restored to 0.7% of GDP till the government’s day-to-day spending is covered…
by tax revenues on a “sustainable” basis and public sector debt in “underlying” terms is falling as a share of national income or GDP. On the basis of the latest official forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, this won’t happen for at least five years, so…
not this side of the election. And perhaps the most important - and some would argue the most pernicious - implication of imposing these necessary and sufficient conditions for restoring the aid budget is that they in effect troll those MPs who lament the aid cut by saying…
Read 5 tweets
6 Jul
The projection from @sajidjavid that infections could surge to a record 100,000 a day in a few weeks, as all social distancing and mask-wearing regulations are removed, is especially terrifying for those whose immune systems are impaired or are clinically vulnerable in…
other ways. There are millions of these frail people. For those whose immune systems are compromised or suppressed, the efficacy of vaccines is much reduced. For others among the frail, any residual risk of becoming infected is too great, because for…
them it is literally a matter of life or death. So when you hear politicians and others talking about the important freedom to choose NOT to wear a mask and NOT to keep a respectful distance from others, note that their freedom is felt as oppression by those who…
Read 6 tweets
28 Jun
Big early issues for @sajidjavid. 1) whether to postpone introduction of NHS reform legislation from next week to the autumn, so he can evaluate it. 2) whether to seize control of social care reform, and drive through plan to put it on stable financial footing. In latter…
weeks of Hancock, all
authority on this was with @BorisJohnson, because Hancock had been so damaged by the Cummings demolition. 3) whether to reduce the financial disincentive to quarantine, to improve effectiveness of…
test and trace. @sajidjavid will presumably know that for a while at least he is unsackable. His maximum power is right now, especially since his sponsor and patron is @carrielbjohnson rather than the PM.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jun
The logical implication of the PM’s statement today about why the full end of lockdown is being delayed by at least four weeks is that no major holiday or business destinations abroad will go on the green list any time soon. Dreams of foreign travel? Forget them. How so? Well…
there are three reasons. 1) The PM, CMO and CSA all said that it won’t be prudent to allow us to mix with lots of others indoors until at least two thirds of adults are double-dose vaccinated. And there are very few other big countries close to that level of vaccination. So…
on the PM’s logic, those other countries are potential sources of new infections. 2) He said that the only serious risk to yet another delay to ending all lockdown restrictions on 19 July is the arrival here of an even more infectious and more lethal new variant. So is he…
Read 5 tweets
14 Jun
.@CMO_England was explicit that the end of lockdown is explicable wholly by the attached chart - which shows the exponential growth in the Delta variant, which was imported from India, and the way it has displaced the less infectious Alpha or Kent variant. And the PM…
was clear himself that the return of our liberties has been delayed by the growth of the Delta variant. So why did no one ask @BorisJohnson and @CMO_England and @uksciencechief the question I put to Johnson on Saturday, which is surely they made a terrible error in…
not putting India on the full quarantine red list weeks earlier than 23 April, because the spread of the virus in India was already alarming in early April. Johnson refused even to say he regretted the late move of India to red list status. Very odd. But there needs to be…
Read 4 tweets
14 Jun
The Committee on Standards in Public Life has raised concerns, following representations by the Commissioner for Public Appointments, that the system of appointing to public bodies may be tilting too far in the direction of ministerial patronage and away from "merit". This...
from the report is resonant: "the Commissioner has warned that the precarious balance between ministerial
patronage and appointment by merit 'is under threat'. Of particular concern to the Committee is the leaking of preferred candidates to...
the media, which may discourage suitable candidates from applying for posts, undermines the integrity of the system and weakens the public's perception of the independence of the regulatory process". You may recall that the PM's preferred candidates...
Read 4 tweets

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