Kashan Qamar Profile picture
Jul 15, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Thread: “Eid se pehle petrol bomb ka tohfa”

People should know the truth rather than believing in conspiracies. #PetrolPriceHike was expected as crude oil prices were rising & this increase of Rs5.40 is actually lower than the increase in the cost of petrol.
1/N
The cost of petrol (base price) increased by Rs9.78. So, the govt actually reduced the taxes by Rs4.40 to not pass on the full increase

To give you the context, taxes on petrol are already the lowest where petroleum levy is reduced to zero & GST reduced from the standard 17%
2/N
Taxes on petrol are at Rs11.48, the lowest since Nov-18 & 9.72% of retail price, the lowest since recallable memory

Govt has set a target of Rs610bn for FY22 to be collected in lieu of petroleum levy. Now that it is reduced to zero, it could result in higher fiscal deficit
3/N
People need to understand this you're not getting a relief, when a govt subsidies petrol on the expense of a higher fiscal deficit. Cuz, it will result in a higher public debt & ultimately, it will be borne by citizens

Rising crude oil prices is to blame for #PetrolPriceHike
4/N
Media should report correctly to convey the actual facts to the public rather than giving headlines of a “Petrol Bomb” by the govt. Yes, the retail price is at an all time high, so does the cost of petrol. Taxes on petrol are at historic lows

And, prices are lower in Pak
N/N

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More from @kashan_qamar

Jan 1, 2022
Thread: Inflation in Pakistan
The Urban CPI basket of goods and services comprises of 12 major commodity groups and their assigned weights are as follows:

1/N Image
In Dec'21, the inflation is the highest in 22 months at 12.3% year-on-year

National CPI inflation is moving at a 12 month average of 9.5%. The SBP forecast for FY22 is 9-11%

2/N Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 5, 2021
Thread: Power Tariff Breakdown

• Generation Tariff

• Transmission Tariff

• Distribution Tariff

NEPRA is the authority which sets the tariff for generation, transmission, distribution licensees and end consumers
1/N Image
There are two cost components to Generation tariff: i) energy purchase price (EPP) ii) capacity purchase price (CPP). EPP includes fuel costs whereas CPP includes debt recovery for setting up plants

Generation cost per unit was Rs12.3 in FY20

Source:

2/N brecorder.com/news/amp/40031…Image
The transmission tariff includes Use of System Charges (UoSC)

UoSC means the charges to be paid by users of the transmission system. Usually makes up Rs0.5-0.8 per unit in the consumer end tariff

3/N Image
Read 18 tweets
Jul 22, 2021
Thread: Pakistan's Economic Indicators
1/N
If actual output rises above its potential level, it results in a positive output gap

So, we can see that Pakistan was on the path of overheating prior to FY19 & that was followed up by demand-pull inflation & higher interest rates by SBP

Source:
()
2/N Image
The world bank classifies economies into four income groups:

Low-income, are those with a GNI per capita of $1,045 or less; lower middle-income, are between $1,046 & $4,095; upper middle-income, are between $4,096 & $12,695; high-income, are of $12,696 or more

3/N
Read 40 tweets
May 6, 2021
Thread: Pakistan's Economic Indicators

Current account is in surplus in 9MFY21 at $959 million (+0.5% of GDP) against a deficit of $4.1bn (-2.1% of GDP) in the same period last year.

Source:

1/N sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Balanc…Image
Fiscal Deficit is at Rs1,652.05 billion (-3.6% of GDP) in 9MFY21 compared to Rs1,686.19 billion (-3.8% of GDP) in the same period last year.

Source:
finance.gov.pk/fiscal/July_Ma…
finance.gov.pk/fiscal/July_Ju…
finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter…
2/N Image
Primary balance is in surplus in 9MFY21 at Rs451.8 billion (+1.0% of GDP) compared to Rs193.5 billion (+0.4% of GDP) in the same period last year.

Source:
finance.gov.pk/fiscal/July_Ma…
finance.gov.pk/fiscal/July_Ju…
3/N Image
Read 31 tweets
Aug 22, 2020
Thread on Petroleum Taxes in Pakistan

In FY20, Petrol & High Speed Diesel taxes averaged at Rs35.38 per litre. The Highest ever in rupee terms

Note: This is exclusive of Custom duty tax
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In FY16, Petrol & High Speed Diesel taxes averaged at $0.269 per litre. The Highest in dollar terms

Source:
pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/…
sbp.org.pk/reports/stat_r…
sbp.org.pk/reports/stat_r…
2/N Image
In H2FY20, Petrol & High Speed Diesel taxes averaged at Rs36.29 per litre
3/N Image
Read 66 tweets
Apr 2, 2020
Pakistan's Economic Crises 2018

Economic crises are not earthquakes which strike without warning; they are culmination of years of excesses & misguided macroeconomic policies

CAD reached $19.9bn in FY18 which was the highest ever in the country’s history in absolute terms
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Current Account Deficit (CAD) surged from 1.1% of GDP in FY13 to 6.3% of GDP in FY18

Last 4 months before the new govt coming into power we were running a CAD of $2bn a month this means at an annualised pace of $24bn

Source:
sbp.org.pk/ecodata/BOP-Se…
sbp.org.pk/ecodata/BOP_ar…
2/N Image
An increase in REER implies that exports become more expensive & imports become cheaper; therefore, an increase indicates a loss in trade competitiveness

REER value of 100 reflects fair valuation

REER had appreciated to 123.5 by April-17

Source:sbp.org.pk/departments/st…
3/N Image
Read 42 tweets

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