I've been hammering on this point for quite some time, but it's worth repeating in the simplest English possible that you could explain to a twelve year old.
Cryptocurrencies aren't currencies. They're investments, and pretty bad ones at that.
They may have started out with that idea to be magical internet money, but that idea failed.
Now most people they treat it like an investment. People want to get more dollars than they put in.
Unlike investing in shares in a real company which does something in the world, buying a crypto token doesn't do anything.
It's like a casino chip.
You can use the casino chip to play the games at the casino, but the games are rigged and the house always wins.
The reason the casino exists is because there are more losers than winners. The games are designed like that, this is what is we mean by "negative sum" games.
For every one person you see winning at the slots, there's an enormous pile of losers who went home empty handed. Their money went to pay out that one winner, and the rest went to the casino.
The reason the casinos exists at all is that losers must exceed winners.
And there are many gamblers who pretend they are winning. The original meaning of the word "shill" is a gambler who plays using the casino's money in order to keep games going when there are not enough players.
Maybe the casino will let you cash out your chips, but they have no obligation to because they're usually run by crooks.
If the casino says you lost there's nothing you can do.
Casino chips just like bitcoin don't create wealth, they just shift money around.
There is no value created, so all money going out of the system comes from money other people put in.
That's why it's a rubbish investment.
Its like a machine where you put dollars in, and it gives you pretend money that you can't spend and hope to trade it other people who think pretend money must go up. And everyone has to do this in a game of musical chairs ... forever.
That makes no sense and can't last. Eventually the music has to stop and a lot of people are going to find themselves without a chair. And it's going to end very badly for many people.
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Thinking a lot about the Jackson Palmer thread on my commute home. It's is a scathing and brilliantly written synopsis of one man's soul searching and conclusion of thinking through the consequences of actions.
There are probably tens of thousands of other people in exactly the same situation, they found themselves in too deep in what is very much a echo bubble that reinforces the normality of these scams and they just don't have anyone yet in their lives to convince them otherwise.
It takes a fair bit of research at the intersection of some very disparate fields to understand the core of why crypto is so harmful to society.
It's important to give people time and space to reach those conclusions. It's very much like cult or MLM deprogramming in some sense.
I don't think it's widespread public knowledge how social media companies try and fail to protect against employees prying on users. But it's a lot more widespread than the public knows and it here's how it happens... 🧵
So basically social media companies have giant databases that store user accounts, messages, profiles and these are separate tables in the databases. Associated with each user is something called a primary key or unique user identifier.
Access to the databases for rank and file employees usually has some "safety pre-processor" where all queries (written in a language called SQL) are sent to it are scanned to determine if they are looking up a specific individual or doing bulk queries.
If you're curious about the mechanism by which crypto exchanges act like Ponzi schemes, it's quite simple:
They take your real money and give you money on paper. You trade their paper money and put it in negative-sum lotteries run by their mates.
You think you're winning but..
... when you go to cash out your paper wins, your account is frozen, the wins evaporate, or you can never withdraw any real money.
In reality these exchanges have a massive liquidity problem where they comingle a very small pool of real money they have to prop up the illusion.
None of these token products the exchanges offer actually generate any real income because they're non-econmic, they just shift money around. The only way they continue to exist is they pay out early investors from later ones by recruiting more greater fools into the scheme.
If I were to recommend four books to help deprogram friends and family who get sucked into crypto vortex it would be the following:
1. Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain by David Gerard (@davidgerard) - A now classic book that humorously explains the history of and deconstructs the crypto phenomenon to show how stupid these ideas really are at their core.
2. Lying for Money by Dan Davies - A detailed dive into the various types of financial crime, their mechanisms, and what gives rise the motivations of criminals.
People say I don't criticise regulated businesses enough, so let me talk about Robinhood is planning an IPO soon and which I think is an absolute menace to society.
This app is rewiring an entire generation's investing habits to engage in out-right gambling by pushing users into crazy risky products that 20 somethings have no rational business buying.
Encouraging intraday trading by pushing constant notifications at them about short-term price movements is a cash cow for them because they profit per transaction, but not in the interest of their users.
Frequency of trades is almost always inversely correlated with returns.
Ok, trying out this Copilot beta now and it's doing some reasonably impressive things ... more thoughts forthcoming.
First impressions, it's quite clever for boilerplate and like CS 101 kind of exam question-like problems. Probably not that surprising considering it's cribbing from Stackoverflow.
Anything beyond that seems to produce hilariously wrong answers.
Some experiments on variants of FizzBuzz or simple arithmetic expressions on nth prime numbers seem to confuse it quite a bit.