Few Dem strategists understand House races as well as Dan Sena, who oversaw them in 2018.
We had an interesting chat about this GOP strategy: The base requires Rs to continue lionizing Trump, but this will be badly out of sync with the 2022 environment:
The reconciliation package's scale and details are shockingly audacious. If Dems can pull this off, they'll be uniting their factions and addressing multiple epic challenges as a true governing majority.
@paulwaldman1 Among its key provisions, per sources:
* 80% renewable + 50% carbon by 2030
* Clean Electricity Standard
* Tax credits for renewables
* More ACA subsidies
* Medicaid $ to folks in no-expansion GOP states
* Family/medical leave
* Global Minimum Tax
@paulwaldman1 Some strategic insight: Dem aide tells us @SenSchumer envisions satisfying every Dem on Budget Comittee as hitting all parts of Dem coalition in miniature.
Now comes the hard part: Committees writing legislation within toplines and winning whole caucus:
GOP Senators are once again pretending to be outraged that Dems have linked the bipartisan bill to the reconciliation one. But no one should pretend to believe them. They *already pulled* this stunt. Dems cannot let Rs bait them into infighting. New piece: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
When news leaked that moderates want to limit reconciliation bill to $3.5 trillion, some called it a loss for the left.
But a source tells me this is on top of the $579 billion in bipartisan bill, totaling more than $4 trillion, Biden's original plan:
Time for Dems to go on offense in the culture wars. Ask why Republicans think our cadets are snowflakes who must be shielded from hard historical truths and why they won't endure a tiny vaccine pinprick to protect friends' and neighbors' lives. New piece: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
The old right-wing culture war: God, guns, and gays.
The new right-wing culture war: Vaccine derangement, validation of white racial innocence, and valorization of insurrectionists.
Good news: Dems are quietly working to get the Global Minimum Tax provisions into the reconciliation bill, I'm told. This would be a huge deal: A blow to international tax avoidance and a powerful rebuttal to Trumpian populist nationalism. My latest: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Trumpian nationalists say multilateralism threatens national sovereignty. JD Vance says globalist elites have "plundered" the USA.
But the Global Minimum Tax *expands* the scope of democratic action, to solve problems that nationalists have no answer to:
Appalling: Conservative groups are pressuring Republicans to oppose funding IRS enforcement. But this would bring in revenues from the rich and corps that they *already owe.* This also sets up a big test for "anti-elite populists" like JD Vance. My latest: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
JD Vance:
"When companies have effectively rigged the economy such that they pay a lower tax rate than my middle-class sister, that’s not fair.”
You're in luck, JD! Biden and Dems are currently pushing numerous proposals to address exactly this problem:
We could have a real debate over the Dem proposals.
But the pull of right wing media totems (jackbooted IRS, Biden as "globalist") will make it harder for people like JD Vance to develop a serious conservative populist response to them.
Politico reports that the only Rs eager to join 1/6 committee are Marjorie Greene/Jim Jordan types. "Serious" Rs have no interest. This shows a real probe has no upside for Rs: Only full fabulists/insurrectionists can make this work for them. New piece: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
One GOPer admits to Politico that no good at all will come from appointing more serious Rs to the 1/6 committee.
The reason is obvious: Any serious accounting can *only* reveal that the insurrection and GOP complicity were *worse* than we thought: