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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Jul 16, 2021 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
I’m thinking to taking a fake vacation and posting real photos from previous trips…like where is this?
Boarding the plane
After a layover I’ve arrived and got a car, off to some wine country
Terrible camp site , won’t stay here again
Long drive ahead of me to get to my friend’s place but what a view 😍😍😍😍
Is this a space? Hope the rental car company covers any charges
What the heck is this?
Totally lost now 😢
Absolutely awesome night at a party in a castle, saw some dignitaries (can’t reveal who😃)…now in the morning got the hangover meds and off for some more
He says to go back, but pressing on.
Horrid buffet for breakfast, decent public art and some great oranges, day 4 is going well
I wasn’t going to swim here, but now I’m intrigued
I’ve managed to lose my backpack and just got the computer case now. That’s ok. My friend is coming to pick me up
While the police sort out the backpack loss, I’ve got to meet some old gents playing a game and now we’ve found a place to have sheesha so that’s cool
I’ve met some folk volunteering at a warehouse today, with the backpack sorted and my rental car arranged back on the road tomorrow
Ok last day of the vacation, it was quite fun. Found a nice villa here to stay at
And heading back ✈️🎉

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 19
Thoughts on the drone attack on Tel Aviv and the Houthi claims.

First, this is an escalation. The increased use of drones by all the Iranian-backed groups has increased their threats and range of attacks
Second, the Houthis have been claiming increased range for their drones for months. They have been talking about reaching the Mediterranean and also cooperation with Iranian-backed groups in Iraq

timesofisrael.com/houthis-claim-…
See for instance washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
Read 9 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 17
There appears to be a narrative forming about how Hamas is suddenly weakened and Israel is making headway in Gaza. A number of articles and commentary have been pushing this. However, it’s as important to be skeptical of this as it was on Oct. 6 to be skeptical of theories about Hamas being deterred and weak.
So let’s ask a key question about the narrative that Hamas is suddenly facing defeat. Where is the evidence of this? It still controls 90% of Gaza. Are there areas where it has lost control?
There is another theme that wants to see Israel declare victory and assert that Hamas “capabilities” have been destroyed and it can no longer do another Oct 7. This is the new low bar of “victory.”
Read 8 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 17
This entire war is a study in how policies that were designed to prevent a massive war, actually led to one. Basically since 2005, and especially after 2009-2014 the theory was that Hamas could be left in charge there and allowed to grow much more powerful, and there was a “this is fine” mentality
It’s essential to understand this lesson. If you let enemies grow to strong then you can spend huge amounts of resources having to fight them and it’s not an easy task. Each part of the task in Gaza takes months or years and it’s multiple levels of challenges. Hamas isn’t just a relatively strong terror group, like Al-Shabab, it has so many aspects such as its partnership with NGOs and the UN, its leadership in Doha, its underground infrastructure, the border tunnels, etc.
The addiction to managing this conflict and ignoring Hamas and being complacent while Israel prepared for war in the north and Israel even paid lip service to preparing for a “multi-front” war, never imagined a major war in Gaza
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 14
Many believe that if Mohammed Deif was eliminated on July 13 this will have a major impact on Hamas. But there's reason to be skeptical about this also. According to what is known Deif is never seen or photographed in public, he seems to spend most of his time isolated, hiding.
A commander who is rarely in touch with his own brigade or battalion commanders, must have a hard time controlling the battle. That means that if it's true they rarely met with him, then he didn't have day-to-day control, so if he is eliminated, wouldn't the rest of Hamas continue on mostly as before?
The reason I wonder about this, is that if his importance is a "military" commander, in the history of military commanders is there an example of one who is in hiding or not in touch with the forces much but also is of great importance, whose demise simply cannot happen?
Read 14 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 7
What if instead of working with Hamas and whitewashing its presence, major NGOs and the UN had produced quarterly reports since 2007 about Hamas illegal activity such as using hospitals, schools, stealing aid, tunneling under civilian facilities.
These reports would have served as a warning and Hamas would not have felt free to hide among the humanitarians and exploit them as cover and then get hired by these NGOs and basically turn them into a partner of the extremist group
This would have saved a huge number of lives and destruction in Gaza.
Read 17 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Jul 7
The ripping down of hostage posters, which has been common among the extremist pro-Hamas activists in the West since the war began, has always revealed what this war is about. This is a genocidal war launched by Hamas and its powerful backers, and the backers of Hamas fund groups in the West and told them early in the war to rip down the posters

bbc.com/news/articles/…
Why do they target the posters? Because their war is not against Israel, they aren't protesting the IDF, this isn't about "two states" and "peace." This is about ripping down posters to erase the people being held hostage as part of a wider genocidal war against civilians.
Hamas has more support from western extremists after Oct. 7 than before. Why? Because they saw the massacre of people at places like the Nova festival, they saw the kidnapping of old people on Kibbutzim who had devoted their lives to peace...and they supported it.
Read 13 tweets

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