The German storm has now, as forecasted move south east and is now centered over the Adriatic. Its presentation has the appearance of a storm which is receiving its energy from an Atmospheric River of water.
Here's a 90 hour accumulated forecast for Italy. The storm is continuing to move very slowly.
^^ this is from @NOAA's GFS
Here's the European @ECMWF model version which shows particularly highlevels of rain over the Slovenia, Croatia, & Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Here's the European @ECMWF model version which shows particularly highlevels of rain over the Slovenia, Croatia, & Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Here's a Precipitable Water simulation from the @ECMWF over 240 Hours. The high levels of atmospheric water have fully moved out by Wednesday.
And here is ECMWF's 6-hrly rainfall forecast - over 96 hours.
Note however that forecasting exact rainfall location and intensity over any longer than 24 hours is very tricky. The rainfall expectations here are closely tied to the accuracy of the precipitable water model.
Note however that forecasting exact rainfall location and intensity over any longer than 24 hours is very tricky. The rainfall expectations here are closely tied to the accuracy of the precipitable water model.
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