In 2004, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos met for a meal to discuss space.
It was one of their few in-person interactions.
That conversation perfectly captures the different approaches they've taken to space (and why SpaceX has pulled ahead of Blue Origin).
Here's the story 🧵
It was one of their few in-person interactions.
That conversation perfectly captures the different approaches they've taken to space (and why SpaceX has pulled ahead of Blue Origin).
Here's the story 🧵
1/ For Bezos, the path to the meeting began in 1999 when he and famed sci-fi author Neal Stephenson watched the film "October Sky" (about NASA engineer Homer Hickam)
After the viewing, the Amazon founder told Stephenson he always wanted to start a space company...
After the viewing, the Amazon founder told Stephenson he always wanted to start a space company...
2/ ..and Stephenson said "why don't you start today?"
Stephenson -- author of classics such as "Snow Crash" -- was hire #1 and put together a team of thinkers and engineers.
Blue Origins was incorporated in Sept 2000. Bezos checked in one Saturday a month to talk shop.
Stephenson -- author of classics such as "Snow Crash" -- was hire #1 and put together a team of thinkers and engineers.
Blue Origins was incorporated in Sept 2000. Bezos checked in one Saturday a month to talk shop.
3/ Around the time (2001), Musk was part of a space advocacy group called Mars Society.
To create buzz, he pursued a project to send rats/plants to Mars to prove that it was possible.
Musk even flew to Russia to buy 3 "refurbished ICMBs" but balked at the price ($24m total).
To create buzz, he pursued a project to send rats/plants to Mars to prove that it was possible.
Musk even flew to Russia to buy 3 "refurbished ICMBs" but balked at the price ($24m total).
4/ Instead, Musk decided to build his own rockets. He incorporated SpaceX in March 2002, ~18 months after Bezos and Blue Origin.
He funded the venture from a cash windfall after eBay acquired PayPal for $1.5B.
He funded the venture from a cash windfall after eBay acquired PayPal for $1.5B.
5/ From the start, SpaceX was much more publicly visible.
Musk's attempts to win NASA contracts (competing w/ Boeing and Lockheed Martin) included wild stunts.
In Dec 2003, he rolled a SpaceX rocket down Independence Ave in DC and gave a speech at the Air & Space Museum
Musk's attempts to win NASA contracts (competing w/ Boeing and Lockheed Martin) included wild stunts.
In Dec 2003, he rolled a SpaceX rocket down Independence Ave in DC and gave a speech at the Air & Space Museum
6/ Not long after -- in 2004 -- the two met to talk space, with very different missions in mind:
◻️ Blue Origin: "Preserve the Earth” by going “to space to tap its unlimited resources and energy”.
◻️ SpaceX: Colonize Mars and "make humanity a multi-planetary species"
◻️ Blue Origin: "Preserve the Earth” by going “to space to tap its unlimited resources and energy”.
◻️ SpaceX: Colonize Mars and "make humanity a multi-planetary species"
7/ While SpaceX had yet to launch a rocket into space, it was testing engines in Texas and Bezos wanted to pick Musk's brains. It was a very technical chat.
Musk was unimpressed with Bezos' progress.
Musk was unimpressed with Bezos' progress.
8/ Like really unimpressed ("dude, we tried that")
9/ Why did Bezos ignore Musk's advice?
His history at Amazon clearly shows 3 things:
◻️vast patience
◻️trailblazing its own path
◻️constant experimentation
If Bezos was wrong, he wanted to find out on his own.
His history at Amazon clearly shows 3 things:
◻️vast patience
◻️trailblazing its own path
◻️constant experimentation
If Bezos was wrong, he wanted to find out on his own.
10/ Further, in 2004, Blue Origin was very much a side project.
Bezos kept expenses to a minimum and wanted a lean team (~70) believing that constraints led to innovation.
He enshrined the philosophy in a "Welcome Letter" that all Blue Origin employees receive:
Bezos kept expenses to a minimum and wanted a lean team (~70) believing that constraints led to innovation.
He enshrined the philosophy in a "Welcome Letter" that all Blue Origin employees receive:
10/ The "Welcome Letter" and notion of patiently pursuing a long-term objective is further encapsulated in Blue Origin's:
◻️motto = "Gradatim Ferociter" (step by step, ferociously)
◻️coat of arms = a pair of turtles (AKA the tortoise vs. the hare) heading to the stars
◻️motto = "Gradatim Ferociter" (step by step, ferociously)
◻️coat of arms = a pair of turtles (AKA the tortoise vs. the hare) heading to the stars
11/ Conversely, SpaceX's motto is "Head down. Plow through the line" Musk's aim of creating a multi-planet species (eg Mars) requires urgency.
(Bezos is more focussed on creating a space economy for millions of people)
SpaceX's first successful launch came 4yrs after they met.
(Bezos is more focussed on creating a space economy for millions of people)
SpaceX's first successful launch came 4yrs after they met.
12/ Clearly, Bezos' "tortoise" approach was losing.
Headcount
◻️ 2010: SpaceX (900) vs. Blue Origin (275)
◻️ 2017: SpaceX (5k) vs. Blue Origin (1k)
Blue Origin's New Shepard would finally touch the edge of space in Apr 2015, ~7 years after SpaceX.
Headcount
◻️ 2010: SpaceX (900) vs. Blue Origin (275)
◻️ 2017: SpaceX (5k) vs. Blue Origin (1k)
Blue Origin's New Shepard would finally touch the edge of space in Apr 2015, ~7 years after SpaceX.
13/ Meanwhile, SpaceX owns the public's imagination and wins government contracts:
2012: 1st spacecraft sent to ISS
2016: 1st vertical lancing on ocean platform
2017: 1st re-used rocket
2018: Falcon Heavy (largest rocket in operation) launched
2020: 2 astronauts sent to ISS
2012: 1st spacecraft sent to ISS
2016: 1st vertical lancing on ocean platform
2017: 1st re-used rocket
2018: Falcon Heavy (largest rocket in operation) launched
2020: 2 astronauts sent to ISS
14/ In April 2017, Bezos said "enough", announcing he would sell $1B of $AMZN a year to fund Blue Origin.
A few months later, he hired Bob Smith -- an aerospace exec from defence contractor Honeywell -- as Blue Origin CEO.
Blue now has 3.5k employees (vs. SpaceX @ 9.5k).
A few months later, he hired Bob Smith -- an aerospace exec from defence contractor Honeywell -- as Blue Origin CEO.
Blue now has 3.5k employees (vs. SpaceX @ 9.5k).
15/ Blue has aggressively poached SpaceX employees, often 2x-ing their salary:
"I think it’s unnecessary and a bit rude,” Musk says of the practice.
In April 2021, Blue Origin challenged a $2.9B contract NASA awarded to SpaceX. Musk taunted Bezos with this tweet and image:
"I think it’s unnecessary and a bit rude,” Musk says of the practice.
In April 2021, Blue Origin challenged a $2.9B contract NASA awarded to SpaceX. Musk taunted Bezos with this tweet and image:
16/ Now, Bezos will fly to space on July 20 with his brother and 2 other passengers.
Last week, he donated $200m to the Smithsonian Institute to promote science and space research.
While Bezos ignored Musk's advice at in 2004, these moves are right out of Musk's PR playbook.
Last week, he donated $200m to the Smithsonian Institute to promote science and space research.
While Bezos ignored Musk's advice at in 2004, these moves are right out of Musk's PR playbook.
17/ Musk himself booked a space flight on Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic.
No date is set but the two hung out the morning before Branson went to space on July 11 (beating Bezos by 9 days).
No word if Musk and Bezos will brunch before Bezos' flight (unlikely).
No date is set but the two hung out the morning before Branson went to space on July 11 (beating Bezos by 9 days).
No word if Musk and Bezos will brunch before Bezos' flight (unlikely).
18/ With Bezos retiring from Amazon and all in on Blue Origin, the battle between the world's 2 richest people may just be starting ($205 Bezos vs. $160B Musk)
To win the Space Race, it's looking like Bezos is ditching Aesop's tortoise.
Next step: Become Blue Origin CEO?
To win the Space Race, it's looking like Bezos is ditching Aesop's tortoise.
Next step: Become Blue Origin CEO?
19/ If you enjoyed this, FOLLOW @TrungTPhan for other baller business stories and some really dumb memes:
https://twitter.com/TrungTPhan/status/1387753667823083526?s=20
20/ Sources
Book excerpts from Christian Davenport's excellent "Space Barons": amazon.com/Space-Barons-B…
Great breakdown of Blue Origin vs. SpaceX from Brad Stone: linkedin.com/pulse/why-jeff…
Book excerpts from Christian Davenport's excellent "Space Barons": amazon.com/Space-Barons-B…
Great breakdown of Blue Origin vs. SpaceX from Brad Stone: linkedin.com/pulse/why-jeff…
21/ NOTE: Photo that leads the thread is NOT from the 2004 meeting b/t Bezos and Musk (it's the only photo can find of the two together).
It's from 2008, at an economics workshop. Third person is U of Chicago professor Sendhil Mullainathan.
More here: edge.org/event/edge-mas…
It's from 2008, at an economics workshop. Third person is U of Chicago professor Sendhil Mullainathan.
More here: edge.org/event/edge-mas…
22/ Damn! Will def be discussing the SpaceX vs Blue Origin on next episode of the Not Investment Advice (NIA) podcast.
@elonmusk, you’re def invited!
@elonmusk, you’re def invited!
23/ FYI: More background on the 2008 Musk/Bezos photo:
https://twitter.com/trungtphan/status/1375464514901078019
25/ Sources are telling me the *actual* location of the 2004 Bezos + Musk meet was at the Dahlia Lounge in Seattle (now closed):
🔗 google.com/maps/uv?pb=!1s…
🔗 google.com/maps/uv?pb=!1s…
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