Thread by @justthefacts85

A popular talking point at the moment is that this is now a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”.

As some of us know, these claims are based on misleading math. When we see a number like 99%, it’s usually because a statistically irrelevant (far larger) denominator is being used.

1/

Frustratingly, @CDCgov and local public health agencies have intentionally not collected breakthrough data, or withheld it from the public.

Fortunately, @lapublichealth gave us a peek into the current rate of breakthrough cases yesterday by accident.

2/

In Friday’s daily press release, LADPH reorted the total number of breakthrough cases.

A reply from @CoolingFan_ helpfully pointed out that they had also given us a breakthrough total on July 8! Let’s crunch some numbers, shall we?

3/

Yesterday’s press release gives us an exact “as of” date (July 13), but the July 8th one does not.

In order to calculate, I will assume that they track the breakthroughs on a weekly basis. The sum of daily cases from July 7-13 will be the denominator … 6,830 total.

4/

To get the number of breakthrough cases for the same time period, we can subtract the two reorted totals.

4,122 - 2,822 = 1,300

So there were 1,300 breakthrough cases between July 7-13.

5/

So now we just divide …
1300/6830 = 0.19
0.19 x 100 = 19%

So between July 7-13, fully vaccinated people made up approximately 19% of cases in the county of Los Angeles!
😳

6/

Furthermore, 1,300 of the cases occurred in this time period and there have only been 4,122 breakthrough cases total.

That means 31.5% of the total reported breakthrough cases were between July 7-13 alone!

I don’t have prior data to compare, but that, uh, seems like a lot.

7/

Everyone should still get vaccinated to reduce severity if infected, but lying to the public is putting people in danger.

Vaccinated people are getting infected and transmitting quite easily. It’s unethical for CDC and health depts to withhold or downplay this information.

8/

Despite all the rosy claims, the game has clearly changed.

Unfortunately, we chose to ignore clear evidence of breakthrough cases and transmission from other countries.

Until the public health agencies and media catch up to reality, protect yourself and your loved ones.

9/

Tacking this on to the thread here

https://twitter.com/justthefacts85/status/1416480105153449986?s=20

Lexington-Fayette County Health Department (Lexington, KY) is currently reporting that 22.9% of cases from July alone are breakthrough vaccinated cases

h/t @SheriD17536431

lex18.com/news/coronavir…

UPDATE:
Thanks to @Staffingals tagging me in a post, I discovered that @lapublichealth actually has a full chart up on their site with all the relevant data!

Here’s the breakdown of LA County’s percent of weekly new cases in fully vaccinated people starting June 1 …
(cont.)

My spreadsheet of data and calculations, along with a screenshot of the @lapublichealth data below.

You can find the data under the “Post-Vaccination Infections Overall” tab on the page here:
publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/coronavi…

I’ll try to come back to the death/hosp numbers later today

🗂 Another breakthrough data point to add to the file!

If we compare the two reported rates from @CAPublicHealth, we see that 2 of every 15 cases was vaccinated.

2/15=0.133

So 13.3% of reported cases in California between July 7-14 were vaccinated breakthroughs cases.

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1418010736962543618