Thread by @NGrossman81

Hey everyone having politicized arguments about vaccine hesitancy/refusal:
Are you sure you’re talking about the same people? Let me explain.
Broadly three categories not getting shots:
1) Ideological antivaxxers. Includes many lefty woo woo “all natural” types.
1/x

Ideological antivaxxers were committed to that position before COVID, and are probably unconvincable. If tons of studies debunking myths about vaccines and autism won’t convince them, I doubt more information about COVID-19 vaccines or public encouragement could either.
2/x

2) Hesitant. For a variety of reasons, such as lazy and don’t think it matters that much (mostly young healthy people), generally cautious, poorly informed, or distrusting of govt and other public authorities (many poor people and POC fit here).
These are the gettable ones.
3/x

The hesitant should be the focus of public outreach.
Many are checked out of current events—eg nonvoters who can’t name the VP—and need creative messaging. Olivia Rodrigo, for example, is more likely to reach young people. Others need to hear from a trusted community leader.
4/x

The wary, lazy, and uninformed make for a public health and messaging challenge, but aren’t good political props. Unless you’re trying to find excuses, distractions, or blame-shifting for the last category.
3) Partisans and culture warriors
For them, politics is a big factor.
5/x

Vaccination rate correlates with POTUS vote down to the county level. Hard to see this and assume politics and media diets have nothing to do with vaccine decisions.
Turning Fauci into a caricatured villain, wanting Biden to fail, Fox blaring conspiracy theories: all factors.
6/x

This creates a problem for conservative pundits. It means conservatives might bear some responsibility for something bad, and that just won’t do. It must be the mainstream media, Democrats, and online progressives’ fault.
7/x

So it can’t be because Tucker is lying to them every night, it must be because public health officials had bad messaging on masks last spring, or because some doctors and media figures supported George Floyd protests last summer, saying stuff like “racism is a bigger danger.”
8/x

The criticisms about messaging are right. Fauci et. al. should’ve leveled with the public about wanting health workers to have enough masks, instead of saying regular people don’t need them.
Anyone who warned about COVID at gatherings should’ve done the same for protests.
9/x

But as a cause of vaccine refusal? Most people don’t trawl through media and comments from the broadly defined left looking for gotchas and making a big deal out of them. That’s what conservative pundits do.
If this shaped their views, it’s because you told them it should.
10/x

Influential conservatives could’ve gone hard into pro-mask when criticizing Fauci last spring. But the priorities were supporting Trump’s COVID lies, and, as always, owning the libs.
Similar point on vaccines. Could’ve gone all in on Trump deserves credit.
These are choices.
11/x

No, vaccine hesitancy isn’t all Republicans’ fault. Many Dems and non-voters among the unvaxxed.
Yes, some criticisms of public messaging land.
But the subset refusing for political and culture war reasons? Conservative pols and media did that, and are still making it worse
(END)

PS: Graph above of vaccine and POTUS vote by @charles_gaba.

I left out the “Kamala Harris said don’t trust vaccines” misrepresentation (she said she didn’t trust Trump and would want to hear from medical officials), but it’s another example of concocting an own-the-libs excuse.

If you misguidedly but genuinely believe Harris said don’t get vaccinated, your message could be “Harris sucks, you should all get shots, show her what’s what.” It doesn’t have to be “Harris sucks, and her politicization means rejecting vaccines is justified.”
That’s a choice.

If you want more details breaking down components of the unvaccinated US population, read this:

https://twitter.com/charles_gaba/status/1416731979622584329

Some comments doubting the correlation, and @grudkev is right: it’s strong.
Keep in mind this is *a significant part* of the explanation, not all.
Social science virtually never finds one factor that explains everything. People are complicated. So we look for contributing factors

https://twitter.com/grudkev/status/1416773185803010051