It has been announced that JCVI has recommended, or likely to recommend, that only at-risk adolescents be offered the vaccine. I suspect that they considered in their modelling only the direct costs to the health service of acute disease.
I would be particularly interested to see their workings on:

* The benefits to children of ending the pandemic and inevitable restrictions sooner;

* The harms from the secondary cases from the children, especially if teachers, parents or carers are infected;
* The effect of Covid-19 (directly or through self-isolation etc) on loss of school;

* And , crucially, given the growing evidence, the long term consequences on the children and adolescents of “Long Covid”.

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More from @petermbenglish

7 Jul
Doing trace and isolate properly is hugely resource intensive. Ideally you work out where they caught it and identify others potentially infected by the same source, and identify all the contacts that could become secondary cases and try to persuade them to isolate…
It took all of our resources in Surrey and Sussex for over a week to cope with one case in Feb 2020 There are few shortcuts, despite all we've learned (although there are a few more people to do the work).
It might be manageable if the number of new cases per day (in England) were in the very low hundreds - ideally less than 100.
Read 7 tweets
6 Jul
I think Hancock was eliminated for this reason.

The notorious video had obviously been kept back to be released when the moment was "right" for the conspirators.
It's all very Shakespearean, Caesar, knifed by senators at the base of the Curia in Pompeii.

And who stands to gain the most from this? (Putin?)
It seems all too convenient that, just when the government decided to let the disease rip to appease its ERG/CRG backbenchers, a new health secretary was appointed.
Read 7 tweets
3 Jul
I just referred to this #LBD film in an LBC interview.

I compared the Delta variant to the Spanish Armada gathering on the horizon; and said the PM, far from channelling Churchill, channelled Nelson, turning the blind eye to the telescope and declaring "I see no ships".
I pointed out that people who are vulnerable cannot rely on protection from vaccination.…
They have to rely on others to protect them. The most effective and least intrusive measure is mask wearing in enclosed public spaces, where ventilation is poor. (The less volume of air per person, the greater the risk.) Such as public transport.
Read 14 tweets
20 Jun
"Pandemic preparedness: UK government kept coronavirus modelling secret" @bmj_latest…
Why was it @PHE_UK that said publication would "damage national security"? Is such a decision a PHE responsibility (I doubt it)?
Unless it reveals details of plans to counter bioterrorism or warfare that potential attackers would not guess and would help them, how could publishing reports on pandemic / epidemic preparedness exercises possibly damage national security?
This seems completely implausible.

Just like the identical claims that delayed (until protests forced publication ofthe reports on the impact of Covid-19 on BAME people last year.
Read 10 tweets
1 Jun
I keep seeing articles commenting on whether we are entering a new "wave" of Covid-19.

I don't think there is any clear, official definition of a "wave". It's simply a description of what you see on a graph of [something] over time.
I'm not sure how useful the concept of "another wave of Covid-19" is, now.
Before saying there is a "wave", you need to be clear: what is it a wave of? (What is the y axis measuring?)

It may seem obvious, but is it? What are we concerned most about? Deaths? Overwhelming the health service, in which case it might be hospital or ICU admissions?
Read 10 tweets
29 May
I hear @PHE_uk getting flak for failing to ramp up testing quickly last year

@TheBMA and PHE staff repeatedly raised concerns about the closure of Public Health Laboratories (PHLs) over the last decade.
During the flu pandemic PHLs - particularly the London PHL stepped up and provided a vast amount of flu testing.

@PHE_uk was made to close the PHLs aftef the pandemic, in the face of opposition from public health experts who asked how we would manage the next pandemic.
Then, when Covid-19 arrived, ministerial decisions demanded that private laboratories should do the testing, when a fraction of the investment, given to NHS labs, would have provided a better service much sooner.
Read 4 tweets

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