Time for a deep dive into pandemic cases and deaths in England. There are reasons to be optimistic. There are also reasons to be concerned.
First, some optimism: thanks to the vaccine, better hospital treatment, more effective medicines etc., COVID-19 is definitely less deadly.
First, some optimism: thanks to the vaccine, better hospital treatment, more effective medicines etc., COVID-19 is definitely less deadly.
However, if you're aged 65 or over, it's still a risky disease to catch, even with all those improvements.
And if you're aged 85+, your chance of dying (if you're ill enough to get tested and test positive) remains over 10%. That's down a lot from the early days, but still high.
And if you're aged 85+, your chance of dying (if you're ill enough to get tested and test positive) remains over 10%. That's down a lot from the early days, but still high.
Looking at the data above, we can see why the recent explosion in cases hasn't been mirrored by a wave of deaths:
- It's less dangerous at every age group
- Older at-risk people aren't catching it nearly as much
- It's less dangerous at every age group
- Older at-risk people aren't catching it nearly as much
However, we must also turn to the concerning aspects of the situation.
Younger people are catching COVID-19 in unthinkable numbers compared to early in the pandemic. For example, 27% of all cases in the 20-24 age group have come in the last 90 days.
Younger people are catching COVID-19 in unthinkable numbers compared to early in the pandemic. For example, 27% of all cases in the 20-24 age group have come in the last 90 days.
Why does that matter, if they're unlikely to die?
Well, young people can still...
- infect others, even if they're asymptomatic
- get ill enough to need hospitalisation, tying up the NHS
- catch long covid (this is a MAJOR issue, not to be minimised)
- on rare occasions, die
Well, young people can still...
- infect others, even if they're asymptomatic
- get ill enough to need hospitalisation, tying up the NHS
- catch long covid (this is a MAJOR issue, not to be minimised)
- on rare occasions, die
So if the pandemic slips ever further out of control, we can expect to see...
- A rise in deaths, though not in proportion to the rise in cases (and almost exclusively in older age groups)
- Hospitals more and more overwhelmed
- A huge wave of long covid (long-term NHS pressure)
- A rise in deaths, though not in proportion to the rise in cases (and almost exclusively in older age groups)
- Hospitals more and more overwhelmed
- A huge wave of long covid (long-term NHS pressure)
If the only metric used to judge the current severity of the pandemic is deaths, things aren't as bad as before (though the death toll remains tragically high in older people)
But if we consider the whole picture (NHS pressures, long covid etc.) it's still very much a disaster.
But if we consider the whole picture (NHS pressures, long covid etc.) it's still very much a disaster.
We should also remember that new variants could change the picture very quickly when it comes to deaths, especially if the vaccines lose their effectiveness.
And having the virus run wild through a partially vaccinated population is THE best way to breed new variants.
And having the virus run wild through a partially vaccinated population is THE best way to breed new variants.
SOURCES
Coronavirus Dashboard, the following 2 datasets (for England):
NewCasesBySpecimenDateAgeDemographics
NewDeaths28DaysByDeathDateAgeDemographics
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/downlo…
/END
Coronavirus Dashboard, the following 2 datasets (for England):
NewCasesBySpecimenDateAgeDemographics
NewDeaths28DaysByDeathDateAgeDemographics
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/downlo…
/END
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