Here's a view of the two storms, #FabianPH / #INFA whose interaction is forecast to produce a 3rd storm in 4 days time which was forecast yesterday to arrive in Tokyo two days after the Olympics opening.
In the latest GFS 1hourly simulation model the solution remains the same as of today. A large typhoon like low (in terms of water content) will make landfall in Japan and stay over the country for some time bringing torrential rains during #Olympics2021
The animation above covers only the first five days. Here we see the full GFS Model simulation, over 16 days, from the 19th July 06hrs model run.
And this run actually looks worse than yesterdays. This solution contains is a complete mess of small low pressure systems.
And this is the associated rainfall simulation solution for Japan. The maximum rainfall number in this plot is 30.7 inches (780mm).
Here you can look at the rainfall totals a little more easily
Image one: 138 hours (July 25th).... before the storm arrives
Image two (5 days later): 258 hours (July 30th)
In this forecast nearly all the rain falls over four days, 25th to 29th.
This forecast shows this in 6 hourly increments.
The Olympic Facilities are mostly in downtown Tokyo. And we have forecasts which can more precisely target that area.
Firstly the 6-hourly rain forecast.
And the accumulated rainfall forecast.
Note this does not begin at zero. But no rain is expected in Tokyo before the storm arrives. If it arrives.
In this forecast the Olympic facilities very narrowly miss the heaviest rainfall. Here Tokyo is shown receiving between 60 and 190mm of rain over 5 days,
Worst case scenario (based on this forecast) it could receive 400mm over four days. 250% of its July monthly average.
The winds of course arrive earlier. This forecast begins next Friday (July 23 the day of the opening ceremony) and runs for six days.
In this forecast the Olympic facilities area seems to be in an inopportune spot.
This forecast shows sustained winds of between 30 and 60kmh (with gusts higher speed) for four days till the 27th then dropping back briefly before continuing to the end of the forecast on July 29.
DISCLAIMER NOTE: As this forecast is for a storm which has not yet formed, it remains fairly speculative. But something similar to this, perhaps with different timing and location is definitely on the cards.
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.
And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona.
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.app
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla