Here's a view of the two storms, #FabianPH / #INFA whose interaction is forecast to produce a 3rd storm in 4 days time which was forecast yesterday to arrive in Tokyo two days after the Olympics opening.
In the latest GFS 1hourly simulation model the solution remains the same as of today. A large typhoon like low (in terms of water content) will make landfall in Japan and stay over the country for some time bringing torrential rains during #Olympics2021
The animation above covers only the first five days. Here we see the full GFS Model simulation, over 16 days, from the 19th July 06hrs model run.
And this run actually looks worse than yesterdays. This solution contains is a complete mess of small low pressure systems.
And this is the associated rainfall simulation solution for Japan. The maximum rainfall number in this plot is 30.7 inches (780mm).
Here you can look at the rainfall totals a little more easily
Image one: 138 hours (July 25th).... before the storm arrives
Image two (5 days later): 258 hours (July 30th)
In this forecast nearly all the rain falls over four days, 25th to 29th.
This forecast shows this in 6 hourly increments.
The Olympic Facilities are mostly in downtown Tokyo. And we have forecasts which can more precisely target that area.
Firstly the 6-hourly rain forecast.
And the accumulated rainfall forecast.
Note this does not begin at zero. But no rain is expected in Tokyo before the storm arrives. If it arrives.
In this forecast the Olympic facilities very narrowly miss the heaviest rainfall. Here Tokyo is shown receiving between 60 and 190mm of rain over 5 days,
Worst case scenario (based on this forecast) it could receive 400mm over four days. 250% of its July monthly average.
The winds of course arrive earlier. This forecast begins next Friday (July 23 the day of the opening ceremony) and runs for six days.
In this forecast the Olympic facilities area seems to be in an inopportune spot.
This forecast shows sustained winds of between 30 and 60kmh (with gusts higher speed) for four days till the 27th then dropping back briefly before continuing to the end of the forecast on July 29.
DISCLAIMER NOTE: As this forecast is for a storm which has not yet formed, it remains fairly speculative. But something similar to this, perhaps with different timing and location is definitely on the cards.
At this point following the Qatar obscenity Israel is now breaking the internet and the world.
something decisive is needed to break Israel - a peaceful action that will work and show the world that justice still exists and that peace is possible.
A wise friend proposed a brilliant idea. Every nation on earth which is willing and able should send a frigate to the Mediterranean Sea and take a message to Israel that it cannot ignore.
The foundations of the United Nations itself are now crumbling under the weight of the Gaza Obscenity and nations like Britain that seem to have been turned are facing protest and resistance of epic proportions from their citizens.
I’ll be posting videos and news here on Twitter from the flotilla which is about to depart from Majorca for Tunis on the first leg of the journey to Gaza.
More boats are expected to join the flotilla from Europe and North Africa along the way as it moves west across the Mediterranean. @GretaThunberg is making the voyage again and Israel will not be able to contain or stop this flotilla most likely. And definitely not the publicity.
This first video is of a wind squall hitting one of the boats as it departs Barcelona.
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.