I think it's really important to look at our daily numbers and realise
1. Diagnosed infection is always the tip of the infection iceberg, our true daily rate is a multiple of that.
2. Younger people are the unvaccinated ones and are also likely to have fewer/no symptoms.
1. Diagnosed infection is always the tip of the infection iceberg, our true daily rate is a multiple of that.
2. Younger people are the unvaccinated ones and are also likely to have fewer/no symptoms.
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1417162616422666243
What critical is how the case numbers relate to hospitalisations/mortality. We will know more in the coming weeks and be able to learn from our neighbours.
As numbers go up contact tracing will not be able to meet demand, there's always a ceiling to that capacity.
In fact though, when community transmission gets that high, containment measures like that are far less useful.
In fact though, when community transmission gets that high, containment measures like that are far less useful.
This is because of the iceberg effect. When cases are in the 1000s per day, you have to assume that the actual numbers are higher and your risk increases.
This means we should all stay aware of symptoms and also protect ourselves from exposures.
This means we should all stay aware of symptoms and also protect ourselves from exposures.
In Public Health we then focus more on managing outbreaks in high risk settings, because our objective changes from disrupting transmission generally to just focussing on places where transmission might increase mortality.
So for example an outbreak in a nursing home will always be more important than an outbreak associated with a party.
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