Thread by @bopinion

Life had been close to normal in Sydney until a few weeks ago.

Less than five dozen cases of local transmission occurred in New South Wales this year until June 16, when a driver caught the delta variant.

The outbreak brought Sydney to a standstill trib.al/TDPeR8E

Restrictions in Sydney have tightened — but cases keep rising. The outbreak that resulted has now infected more than 1,000 people.

While many parts of the world are emerging from a year of restrictions, Sydney is entering its winter of discontent trib.al/ShqKIK4

Australia's failure to heed warnings before it gets too late bodes poorly for the ability to navigate other complex global crises in the coming years, writes @davidfickling

How did it go so wrong? trib.al/ShqKIK4

As the world’s most sparsely populated major economy, Australia was, at first, blessed by geography.

Major urban areas sit in separate states, eight hours’ drive or more from their nearest neighbors, making it easy to create discrete quarantine zones trib.al/ShqKIK4

Geographical good fortune has bred callousness. More than 30,000 citizens are stranded overseas and want to return.

Technically, that’s been possible, but in practice anyone unable to pay a five-figure sum per traveler is stuck trib.al/ShqKIK4

It’s complacency that has led to Sydney’s current problems.

Australia made the wrong bets on vaccines, and hasn't introduced the no-fault compensation system that drug manufacturers depend on to protect themselves from lawsuits over vaccine side-effects trib.al/ShqKIK4

The early success of virus suppression meant that this wasn’t treated as a concern until it was too late.

Repeated opposition calls since last December to advance the vaccination schedule have been casually dismissed trib.al/ShqKIK4

Barely a third of Australia's adult population has had a first dose of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca's vaccine, with about 11% fully covered.

Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot dose has been approved for use, but the government hasn’t put in an order trib.al/ShqKIK4

With hardly any disease- or vaccine-acquired immunity, Australia is months behind other rich countries in its ability to handle an outbreak.

If lockdown measures don’t succeed, Sydney faces a grim few months until it has sufficient vaccine supplies trib.al/ShqKIK4

Australia’s failures include:

➡️ Belief that its fortune is born of merit instead of luck
➡️ Inability to plan for contingencies
➡️ Confidence that something will save the day

That doesn’t just apply to Covid. What will happen with the next crisis? trib.al/ShqKIK4