george Profile picture
20 Jul, 15 tweets, 3 min read
1/ everything looks like death rn in crypto, and crypto twitter seems even more bearish now than during the may dump (eth to $300? seriously?), so here’s some hopium.
2/ this is gonna be a 2013 style double bubble driven by a perfect alignment of macro + innovation within a year. everyone is confused about macro outlook and we haven't started climbing the innovation hopium ladder so crypto is ass rn.
3/ in the next few months fear of inflation will give way to fear of slow economic growth as the initial recovery cools down, supply chains catch up, consumption moderates, the delta variant proves stubborn, and everyone realizes this inflation actually is transitory.
4/ inflation prints may be at record highs right now, but there is little reason to believe that covid-19 caused sticky inflation, in fact the major factors covid sped up arguably contribute more to lowering inflation in the medium to long-term.
5/ this surprising economic weakness, transitory inflation and a stubborn unemployment rate leads the fed to maintain (and maybe even double down on) accommodative monetary policy, quelling any market concerns about tapering.
6/ this provides a favorable macro backdrop for a rotation from value back to growth assets, first to large-cap tech stocks and eventually to crypto as money chases growth wherever it can get it.
7/ at roughly the same time, eth will have started a series of innovation milestones that massively improve its scalability, tokenomics, security, sustainability, etc. putting it on the path to become a deflationary triple-point asset.
8/ eip-1559, the imminent launch of dapps on l2s (and the subsequent dual liquidity mining), proof-of-stake (and all the eth taken out of circulation to be staked), and eventually sharding are all positioned such that they create a perfect hopium ladder well into next year.
9/ this isn’t even mentioning increasing pmf of actual applications (defi, nfts, gaming) or major developments on other protocols (bitcoin lightning network adoption, ibc on cosmos, parachains on polkadot, solana steadily cryptopilling all the trading firms in the world).
10/ these innovations won’t do much unless macro is aligned, so there might be delays in price reaction to things like eip-1559. but the 2nd half of the bull market will emerge and see eth hitting $20k, btc hitting $100k, and the entire crypto market hitting $6t within a year.
11/ this bull run will primarily eth-driven, with eth flippening btc and becoming the industry bellwether. there is no overstating how perfect of a hopium ladder eth has created (puts the l0 -> l5 self driving car hopium ladder to shame) and how easily it will fit into
12/ institutional portfolios once they’re not scared shitless of what powell is gonna do. looking back we will consider these few months of consolidation a hilarious blip (“an elon shitpost liquidated how many people??”) and marvel at how obvious the recovery was and why we
13/ weren't more aggressive in buying the dips (no one remembers the summer 1998 crash, only the 2000 one). this consolidation phase will temporarily strengthen the supercycle thesis as people will take it as proof that there will no longer be any lengthy crypto bear markets.
14/ few will try timing the top anymore as everyone that tried timing the top sells prematurely and fomos back in at higher prices. fear gives way to greed, and that’s what will mark the true end of the bull market for this cycle, but that’s for another shitpost.
cc @bitcoinpanda69 @CryptoKaleo only bulls on my feed rn

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