Thread by @dresserman

Kantar day coming shortly

Grocery sales -5.1%

But sales still strong.

Versus 2019 (12 week period) sales are +£3 billion.

The Euro's meant that fans went to the pub (usually see this as a trend the longer England stay in a tournament, which isn't long, lol) but reopening the pubs etc - novelty factor.

Take home booze actually down 3%.

Booze was +24% versus 2019, however.

Crisps and Snacks +23%

An extra £10m spent on Pizza #Italy

55% of people say they feel safe in a retailer, when shopping... Legal changes mean that, as we know, those people who are delighted with even the smallest of victories will not have to wear a mask.

This 55% feeling safe has not changed much at all in the past 6 months. Despite the increase in vaccinations and the fall, then rise, in case numbers.

4 week versus same period 2020 - People buying online groceries fell by 81,000.

Digital baskets -8%

Average of £80 per shop, lowest since February 2020.

This means that year on year; online grocery sales have fallen for the first time ever..

(However year on year is a dangerous game given the COVID impact, still, it's a very notable shift).

With Online falling, it's bad news all around.

Ocado lead the way though +3%

Waitrose were +0.1% (12 weeks to 11/7) only retailer with a majority bricks and mortar estate to grow year on year sales growth.

Share growth +0.3%.

Aldi and Lidl both won market share.

Aldi +0.4%
Lidl +0.2%

Tesco share +0.4% to 27.1% also notable.

Sainsbury's share +0.3% to 15.2%

Asda share -0.1%

Morrisons share -0.2% to 10.1%

14% of Morrisons shopping trips include items bought on counters (IE loose Meat / Fish / Deli items).

More than double the average (although there is no one else really bothering, bar Waitrose and some Tesco stores).

Multibuys too - 30% on multibuy offers featuring 2 or more items.

Versus price cuts everywhere else near enough.

Iceland / Coop and Indies were all down as they trade against difficult COVID inspired figures.

Scores on the doors then: (12 weeks to July 11th)

Tesco:

vs 2020: -4.6%
vs 2019:+10.8%

Sainsbury's:

vs 2020: -3%
vs 2019: +10.1%

Asda:

vs 2020: -6.1%
vs 2019: +4.3%

Morrisons:

vs 2020: -6.7%
vs 2019: +9.6%

Aldi:

vs 2020: 0.0%
vs 2019: +13%

Coop:

vs 2020: -14.6%
vs 2019: +11.5%

Lidl:

vs 2020: -0.7%
vs 2019: +16.5%

Waitrose:

vs 2020: +0.1%
vs 2019: +11.0%

Iceland:

vs 2020: -11.6%
vs 2019: +18.5%

Ocado

vs 2020: +3%
vs 2019: +49.9%

Indies:

vs 2020: -25.8%
vs 2019: +18.4%

What we are looking for here as we trundle along the year is how the number between 2020 and 2019 shrinks, IE if the gains made in 2019 start to narrow then you can see that the corrections are taking place in the market.

This is dependent on how winter goes and COVID etc.

But narrowing sales vs 2020 are unsurprising given the changes in shopping missions; but the gains versus 2019 are stark for many businesses and they are still doing far better than they once were.

Online is slowing, interesting to see what occurs here.