Darren 🥚🐣🕊️ Profile picture
Jul 20, 2021 15 tweets 8 min read Read on X
1/ Expertise Value Added in the Real Estate Market (Gay, Zhang)

"Realtor activity is correlated with higher-quality listings (based on listing photos/remarks). Controlling for house characteristics, listing quality is correlated with higher sale prices."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ "Waller and Jubran find that properties listed by experienced realtors sell for 2% more than those of inexperienced realtors and 32% faster.

"However, Munneke and Yavas find no difference in listing duration between realtors from full-commission firms and other realtors."
3/ "We construct a novel dataset of real estate listings and sales from publicly available data from a major real estate website. This dataset covers a total of 40,049 real estate sales from across Arizona, California, and Illinois.

"We restrict our sample to MLS listings."
4/ Listing quality = (1) number, resolution of photos and (2) the presence of objective ("cherry cabinets") and subjective ("cozy fireplace") descriptions

Realtor activity = total # of sales within a calendar year
Realtor experience = # days licensed (not available in CA & IL).
5/ "More experienced or active realtors may be more likely to represent (owners of) houses of higher quality.

"We partially address this confound using information about transactions where the seller’s realtor (whose expertise we are exploring) worked as a buy-side realtor."
6/ Listing quality is associated with realtor activity but not experience.

"Our measure for experience, time since first acquisition of license, is correlated with age. Older realtors may be less familiar w/ technology and unable to upload a large number of high-quality photos."
7/ "Activity & experience remain significant after controlling for photo quality, suggesting that expertise contributes to sale price in other ways. E.g. experienced realtors may be better negotiators, improve presentation of the house, or possess networks with buyers' realtors."
8/ Column 7: "The coefficient for activity changes; the price ratio coefficient is negative: conditional on observable characteristics, houses listed at lower prices sell for less.

"Realtors w/ large numbers of transactions may list at lower prices to facilitate quicker sales."
9/ "Having more photos is associated with longer time on market.

"Possible explanation: Sellers who post more photos choose to show more characteristics and are likely more confident in those characteristics. The seller might be more patient in waiting for an acceptable offer."
10/ "Using objective qualifiers to describe house characteristics is correlated with higher sale prices on average.

"Including property fixed effects in columns 2-4 controls for the effect of the characteristics’ physical existence & reduces the magnitudes of the coefficients."
11/ "With our full set of controls, having one (two+) characteristic(s) with an objective qualifier is associated w/ a 2.03% (3.83%) increase in sale price.

"Caution regarding further extrapolation: few observations in our sample had 3+ characteristics w/ objective qualifiers."
13/ Incentives and Performance in Real Estate Brokerage
14/ Real Estate Agent Remarks: Help or Hype?
15/ Relative Performance of Real Estate Marketing Platforms: MLS Versus Fsbomadison.Com

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More from @ReformedTrader

Apr 25
1/ Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (Michael Lewis)

"Baseball was at the center of a story about the possibilities—and limits—of reason. It showed how an unscientific culture responds (or fails to respond) to the scientific method." (p. xiv)

amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-…Image
2/ "A small group of undervalued professional players & executives, many of whom had been rejected as unfit for the big leagues, turned themselves into one of the most successful franchises.

"How did one of the poorest teams, the Oakland Athletics, win so many games?" (p. xi)
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Feb 4
New papers: February 2025
(I haven't read these, but the abstracts look interesting.)

Does Trend-Following Still Work on Stocks?
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Application of the Kelly Criterion to Prediction Markets
semanticscholar.org/paper/Applicat…

Jan 2025 edition:
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December Effect in Option Returns
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Unintended Consequences of Rebalancing
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Bank Fragility After Mergers
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Mutual Fund Investors and the Economic Cost of Seeking Alpha
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Stock split signaling: Evidence from short interest
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Read 15 tweets
May 18, 2024
1/ Skewness and kurtosis

* Everything has excess kurtosis
* Unlike market returns, individual stocks aren't negatively skewed
* Option prices underestimate kurtosis and overestimate negative skewness
* Implied moments don't consistently predict stock returns
* Sell options?? Image
2/ Asset classes have fat tails, and most have negative skewness.

Kurtosis & expected returns


Kurtosis-Based vs Volatility-Based Asset Allocation


Impact of Skewness and Fat Tails on Asset Allocation

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3/ This has practical consequences, and it's a good idea to be prepared.

Give me a moment: Optimal leverage in the presence of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis


When Genius Failed: The Rise & Fall of Long-Term Capital Management


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Read 5 tweets
Jan 1, 2024
1/ Fact, Fiction, and Factor Investing (Aghassi, Asness, Fattouche, Moskowitz)

"We reference an extensive academic literature and perform simple but powerful analyses to address claims about factor investing."

aqr.com/Insights/Resea…
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2/ #1. Fiction: Factors are Data-Mined with No Good Economic Story

"Value, momentum, carry, and defensive/quality pass the more stringent statistical tests.

"Many of the factor tests conducted in papers are on variations of a few central themes."




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3/ "Value, momentum & defensive/quality applied to US individual stocks has a t-stat of 10.8. Data mining would take nearly a trillion random trials to find this.

"Applying those factors (+carry) across markets and asset classes gets a t-stat of >14."





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Read 14 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
1/ Happily Ever After? Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Happiness in Germany (Zimmermann, Easterlin)

"The formation of unions (separation or divorce) has a positive (negative) effect on life satisfaction. We also see a 'honeymoon period' effect."

researchgate.net/publication/49…
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2/ "The model's four terms describe different life stages for an individual who marries during the sample period. The intercept reflects the average life satisfaction of individuals in the baseline period [all noncohabiting years that are at least one year before marriage]."


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3/ " 'How satisfied are you with your life, all things considered?' Responses are ranked on a scale from 0 (completely dissatisfied) to 10 (completely satisfied).

"We center life satisfaction scores around the annual mean of each population subsample in the original population."
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Read 29 tweets
Aug 13, 2023
1/ Short-sightedness, rates moves and a potential boost for value (Hanauer, Baltussen, Blitz, Schneider)

* Value spread remains wide
* Relationship between value and rates is not structural
* Extrapolative growth forecasts drive the value premium

robeco.com/en-int/insight…
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2/ "The valuation gap between cheap and expensive stocks remains extremely wide. This signals the potential for attractive returns going forward."


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3/ "We observe a robust negative relationship between value returns and changes in the value spread.

"The intercept of ≈10% can be interpreted as a cleaner estimate of the value premium, given that it is purged of the time-varying effects of multiple expansions & compressions." Image
Read 7 tweets

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