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Jed Kolko Profile picture
@JedKolko
Jul 21, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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New! Update!

Job postings on @indeed now 36.5% above pre-pandemic baseline.

Postings rising at slower pace in May/June/July than in March/April.

At this rate, JOLTS job openings would stand at 9.8m as of last Friday.

1/
hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the…
Postings far above baseline in goods sectors: warehouse, manufacturing, and construction.

Plus HR jobs are high and climbing -- employers want to hire the people who will help them hire.

2/
hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the…
It's not just that there are more job postings. Employers are especially eager. More indicate "hiring urgently", as @AE_Konkel found in her research ...

hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the…

3/
... plus there are more postings touting hiring incentives -- which have been on the rise especially since April.

hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the…

4/
Postings are up even in lagging metros. San Jose has had the slowest postings recovery, but even there job postings are up more than 10% vs baseline.

hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the…

5/
Job postings are growing more slowly in high work-from-home metros, where local businesses like retail and restaurants aren't rebounding as quickly.

hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the…

6/
Job postings up LESS in high vaccination metros. High-vax places tend to be larger and have more jobs in WFH sectors like tech, finance, and other prof services -- places where recovery has been slower since last year.

(one more coming!)

hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the…

7/
Since vaccines became widely available late spring, job postings have increased at similar rate in low, med, and hi vax metros.

Local diffs in pandemic economic effects driven more by local industry mix than by infections, deaths, or vax rates.

8/end

hiringlab.org/2021/07/21/the…

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More from @JedKolko

Jed Kolko Profile picture
Sep 20
The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.

(short thread)
CEX reports on patterns of consumer spending, by category and demographics -- e.g. how much do older adults spend on food.

The spending mix is critical for calculating inflation: it shows how to combine prices of eggs, airplane tickets, TVs, etc. into an overall price level.
The CEX delay is likely due to resource cuts, not meddling. BLS has lost lots of staff and expertise.

An extended delay COULD lead to politically-influenced choices about how to weight the CPI in the absence of needed CEX inputs. But that's not where we are today.
Read 5 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Jun 5
What's a "good" jobs-report number?

The breakeven job level needed to keep employment steady is just 50k, vs 160k a year ago.

The immigration surge is over, and peak boomers are aging into retirement.

Our rules of thumb about slack, overheating, etc, must adjust. Image
In recent months, actual payroll growth has been well above the breakeven level. Job growth could slow down significantly and still be at or above breakeven. Image
Here's your sniff test.
CPS showing 16+ pop increasing 171k/month since Jan 2025.
Overall 16+ EPOP roughly 60%.
Aging lowers 16+ EPOP by ~ 0.2%pts per year, holding age-specific EPOP fixed.
Read 6 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Jul 28, 2022
Along with the headline Q2 GDP number, which fell 0.9%, I’m watching multiple indicators that give us a fuller picture of the economy – some of which also came out this morning.

Short thread. 1/

bea.gov/news/2022/gros…
All four indicators that @whitehouseCEA noted as key NBER business-cycle-dating committee indicators rose in Q2. Today we learned that personal consumption expenditures and income-less-transfers both rose 1.0% in Q2.

2/
whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma…
The two other indicators @whitehousecea noted – nonfarm payroll employment and industrial production – rose even faster in Q2, which we learned earlier this month.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Sep 9, 2021
New BLS jobs projections: pandemic will lead to fewer jobs requiring a high school degree only or no high school degree.

Long-term effect of pandemic is to skew job growth even more toward occupations requiring college degree.

1/
Pandemic will accelerate long-term growth of the highest paying jobs, while slowing growth of low- and middle-wage jobs.

Pre-pandemic projections were for polarization: strong job growth at the high and low ends. Now, projections favor only high-wage job growth.

2/
Pandemic projected to boost tech, business, financial, and legal jobs. But less job growth than earlier projected in personal care, sales, building services, and food prep.

Remote work, online shopping, and declining business travel/hospitality drive these shifts.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Sep 8, 2021
In August, the labor market improved slightly _more_ in states that did not cut off federal UI early than in cutoff states.

Since May, employment up similarly in both types of states, though unemployment fell more in cutoff states.

An update with August CPS microdata.
🧵
Unemployment -0.1 pts in cutoff states in August, vs. -0.3 pts in other states.

From May to August, unemployment:
-1.0 pt in cutoff states
-0.4 pts in other states
(a statistically significant difference)
Similar story for core unemployment.

Down less in cutoff states than other states in August, but down more in cutoff states than other states from May to August.
Read 6 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
Sep 1, 2021
Job postings in US on @indeed 39.4% above pre-pandemic baseline, as of last Friday 8/27.

1.7 pt gain over previous week -- a strong pickup after some earlier sluggish weeks.

Implies current JOLTS job openings of 10.5m.

hiringlab.org/2021/09/01/job…

1/
Postings are 80%+ above baseline in manufacturing and in HR. Employers need HR staff in order to hire others.

Big increases in tech and finance job postings over past four weeks.

2/
hiringlab.org/2021/09/01/job…
But look! Postings have flattened in virus-sensitive sectors like childcare, dental, and food prep, as the Delta variant surges.

(You can make this same graph using the interactive tool in our blogpost. Hours of fun!)

3/
hiringlab.org/2021/09/01/job…
Read 7 tweets

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