It's not just that there are more job postings. Employers are especially eager. More indicate "hiring urgently", as @AE_Konkel found in her research ...
Job postings up LESS in high vaccination metros. High-vax places tend to be larger and have more jobs in WFH sectors like tech, finance, and other prof services -- places where recovery has been slower since last year.
Along with the headline Q2 GDP number, which fell 0.9%, I’m watching multiple indicators that give us a fuller picture of the economy – some of which also came out this morning.
All four indicators that @whitehouseCEA noted as key NBER business-cycle-dating committee indicators rose in Q2. Today we learned that personal consumption expenditures and income-less-transfers both rose 1.0% in Q2.
The two other indicators @whitehousecea noted – nonfarm payroll employment and industrial production – rose even faster in Q2, which we learned earlier this month.
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New BLS jobs projections: pandemic will lead to fewer jobs requiring a high school degree only or no high school degree.
Long-term effect of pandemic is to skew job growth even more toward occupations requiring college degree.
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Pandemic will accelerate long-term growth of the highest paying jobs, while slowing growth of low- and middle-wage jobs.
Pre-pandemic projections were for polarization: strong job growth at the high and low ends. Now, projections favor only high-wage job growth.
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Pandemic projected to boost tech, business, financial, and legal jobs. But less job growth than earlier projected in personal care, sales, building services, and food prep.
Remote work, online shopping, and declining business travel/hospitality drive these shifts.
@UpshotNYT Outer suburbs and downtown/central neighborhoods grew fastest between 2010 and 2020. Growth was slower in in-between neighborhoods -- denser suburbs and residential urban neighborhoods -- as in rural areas.
Employment grew slightly more m/m (0.7%) in states that did not cutoff UI early than in cutoff states (0.6%), after slightly faster growth in June in cutoff states. Overall: a tie!
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The cumulative two month increase in payrolls, from May (when UI cutoff announcements started) to June, was 1.1% in both cutoff states and non-cutoff states.
Actually 1.13% in cutoff states and 1.09% in non-cutoff states, well within the standard of error of the difference.
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This is consistent with what the CPS data showed: no statistically significant difference in the increase in employment (prime-age EPOP), even though unemployment rate fell more in cutoff states.