Masks don’t control the spread of respiratory viruses. How do we know?

1. Widely studied and accepted prior to 2020.
2. Studies in favor of masking are shockingly weak.
3. Oceans of data from past 18 months - if masks worked we would see it. But we don’t.

Details follow.
Pre-covid, the fact that masks are not effective for controlling the spread of respiratory viruses had been well-studied for decades and the near-unanimous and completely uncontroversial conclusion was that they don't help.
Here is May a 2020 CDC meta study of RCTs that concludes there is no benefit of face masks for controlling influenza:

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
Fauci knew masks didn’t work back in early 2020, as did the CDC and WHO.

nypost.com/2021/06/06/was…
Here is a more comprehensive list of studies of mask effectiveness, much but not all of it from the pre-covid period.

swprs.org/face-masks-evi…
On to the second main point of this thread - the studies that mask advocates put forward to show that masks do work are just incredibly weak.
In this tweet I review one that was promoted vigorously last summer as "proof" that masks work. It is such obvious garbage - case rates going up and down in parallel with general population - how does something like this even get printed?

Then there were the two hairdressers in Missouri who failed to infect their clients. Couldn't possibly be any other reason for that besides the masks, right!? Seriously, this is one of the most cited pieces of "research" in favor of masks.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
More examples of studies in favor of face masks here. Again, this is all just shockingly weak. Cherry picking dates. Ignoring background trends and other confounding factors. Weak, weak ... pathetic.

swprs.org/face-masks-evi…
Finally, we have just been through 18+ months of a huge variety of masking behaviour and mandates. There are oceans of data. There is every opportunity for the efficacy of mask wearing to show itself in the data. But it has resoundingly failed to do so.
This, to me, is the most powerful evidence of all that masks make no difference. If they made a difference, WE WOULD BE ABLE TO SEE IT by now.
This has been vividly captured in innumerable graphs by @ianmSC , @OBusybody , @MarkChangizi , @The_OtherET and others. Here are some of my favorites. First, the south:

Next the amazingly consitent pattern through the great plains states despite radically different mask policies:

A study showing no correlation between mask use and covid spread. Correlation does not imply cause, but causation without some correlation is vanishingly unlikely.

@ianmSC has a nearly unlimited collection of comparisons like this:

I was reluctant to make a big deal about masks for a long time. They are not as devastating as lockdowns, or closed businesses or closed schools. But mask requirements do have enormous costs. Especially to children.
Masks don't work. It would be nice if they did, but they don't. It sort of seems intuitively like maybe they should ... but they don't. Everyone knew it pre-2020. The evidence is even more conclusive now. It is time to stop pretending.

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More from @charlesbrew

10 Jun
The Ministry of Truth has apparently come down hard on the Cleveland Clinic for pointing out that zero of their 1359 employees who recovered from covid got it again.

@TheEliKlein @andrewbostom

newsroom.clevelandclinic.org/2021/06/09/cle…
So, what they formerly said:

"Conclusions: Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination, and vaccines can be safely prioritized to those who have not been infected before."
Has turned into this:

“Cleveland Clinic recommends those who are eligible receive the COVID-19 vaccine."

One can only imagine the pressure brought to bear on them to result in this cowardly outcome.
Read 4 tweets
24 May
It is critically important that we learn the right lessons from covid, not the wrong ones. They are:

1. Doom predicting models were wildly wrong

2. "NPI" measures were ineffective and horribly destructive.

3. Harm done by panic was many times worse than harm done by virus.
Do I even need to post any supporting data about how wildly wrong the models were? I don't think so.
El Gato provides a reminder in the latter part of this article of how ineffective the "measures" were and a warning to not let history be rewritten. Causation without correlation is vanishingly unlikely.

boriquagato.substack.com/p/returning-to…
Read 6 tweets
22 May
The Moment I Knew Health Authorities Were Lying

In August of 2020 this article appeared in the WSJ
wsj.com/articles/face-…
The top study mentioned in the article was this. This was the number one most cited study on mask effectiveness at the time. A co-author was the director of the CDC at the time.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
So what’s in the study? They tested symptomatic health care workers Mass General Brigham. And they found that the percentage of positive test results went up from 0% to 15% from March 1 to 25 before masks were mandated.
Read 14 tweets
17 May
Covid Natural Vaccine Immunity vs. Vaccine Immunity

Institutions foolishly seem determined to ignore immunity from natural infection. So I have reviewed the evidence regarding how powerful natural immunity is, and how it compares to immunity from vaccines.
Covid Reinfections to Date

Surely the most obvious question to ask regarding the strength of natural immunity is how many reinfections have there been. Covid has been around for more than 17 months.
There have been more than 163 million cases reported. The risk of reinfection should be quite evident by now. How many reinfections have there been?

Globally there are 72 confirmed re-infections of covid, out of over 163 million cases. 3 confirmed deaths.
Read 16 tweets
12 May
Comparison of Severe Adverse Events from Pfizer Vaccine vs.15 Months of COVID Hospitalization Risk

I’m trying to make sense of the relative risk of vaccine vs. virus for young people. Looking for help. @Humble_Analysis @gerdosi @AlexBerenson
According to the data from the Pfizer trial, a 15 year old who takes the vaccine has an extra 0.3% risk of a “serious adverse event” in the seven weeks between first dose and one month after second dose. "Serious adverse event" basically means hospitalization or worse.
The cumulative rate of hospitalization of 5 to 17 year olds with covid over the past 15 months of exposure in the USA is 0.03%.

So the risk of serious adverse events from the vaccine is 8.9 times as big as the risk of hospitalization due to 15 months of covid exposure.
Read 10 tweets
23 Oct 20
This remarkable study seems not to have gotten the attention it deserves.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

1. It finds antibody seroprevalence of 47% in Tokyo by late August! One of the highest reported rates in the world.
2. And this by a study where anyone with symptoms was excluded from the study and in a place with a vanishingly small rate of covid illness or death.
3. The all-import question here is how could such a high level of measured infection lead to such a tiny amount of illness or death?

It can't be anything related to measures to control the virus, it apparently was spreading like mad.
Read 8 tweets

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