Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Trinh Profile picture
@Trinhnomics
Jul 22, 2021 • 21 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Good morning! Here is Asia latest Covid cases. Graph shows net change daily & so far I hate to say this but Southeast Asia is doing rather poorly.
The Philippines is in green & net change is down from peak but still pretty high & there is fear that new Covid surge = new restrictions when it barely recovered from previous lockdowns. More fiscal likely needed. Dominguez says he is willing. Fully vaccinated only 4.4% of pop.
Philippines google mobility is not crashing yet (retail is -19% from pre Covid) but not great. For the Philippines to exit out of the current wave/restriction trap, it needs to up its vaccination rate from 4.4%.

Silver lining playbook? Hopefully the delta variant'll speed it up
Indonesia is in blue (yes, my chart is ugly but u know what speed > beauty; I can make these in like 10 seconds) & cases are going down but from a pretty high level & apparently highest in world? Not good is it. Indo > Phils but only 6% fully vaccinated, behind Asia & world.
Indo retail mobility worse than the Philippines due to restrictions that is extended till 26 July. Jokowi ratings taking a hit. Will Bank Indonesia cut to help? No, IDR already weak. No space.
Thailand is yellow & trend is not its friend. Very bad for a country that needs tourism more than most in Asia. For being more developed than PH & ID, Thailand isn't much better w/ vaccination (yep 5%), something I flagged in Q1 & not much has changed since. So? Needs to change.
Malaysia is also pretty bad & trend is upward. Yikes. But it is better than Asia & world in vaccination rate. Yep! 15%, not bad but defo not enough to open up etc so here we are. Malaysia google mobility for retail sales is the WORST -54% (Thailand -23%)
Vietnam is orangy yellow & trend is bad too. It's doing everything it can to curb it from lockdown in Saigon + Hanoi & giving vaccines to industrial parks + making people build bubble (eg sleep at work) to avoid disruption to supply chain but the virus is raging.

And???
Vietnam has a collapse of mobility (retail sales -53% so bad like Thailand) & thus growth in Q3 is not good. It needs to up its vaccination, which is WORST in Asia, as the ZERO covid strategy is not going to work w/ such an infectious strain.

So? Expect a pickup of vaccination!
Singapore is in aqua blue - kind of like my mood - optimistic! Cases "surging" & got restrictions but also has a path out!!! ENDEMIC VS PANDEMIC. Basically vaccinate 2/3 of the pop in 2 wks & then open up to live w/ the virus like dengue fever. Mobility for retail sales only -10%
Singapore vaccination so far - did I tell you that Singapore is my silver lining playbook for Covid in Asia? If Singapore is able to exit this restriction trap via speedy vaccination, then we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. 48% vaccindated!

South Korea got a surge of cases too & restrictions are on; but u know what, its google mobility is not bad at -5% for retail sales so I'm thinking the restrictions aren't that harsh? Anyway, its exports doing great but can't say the same for domestic consumption. Vaccination low
South Korea needs to boost its inoculation rate from 13% currently to exit out of the restriction trap as well. Hopefully it will considering it is very capable of doing so.
Wanna compare Asia vs US vs World? The US vaccination rate is on par w/ Singapore, which is pretty good at 48% as it has a much larger economy/population. Google mobility is pretty good as the economy opens up.
US new covid cases & new deaths (deaths = lagging indicator) - key here is that smudge of higher cases will result in more deaths. If not, then that means that vaccines are effective at allowing us to turn from pandemic into endemic, to borrow the Singaporean phrase.
Ok, so everyone is like wut about Israel? Isn't it a better silver lining playbook than say Singapore? Well, yes, but I wanted to use an Asian example. So Israel managed to vaccinated 61% of its population. And so? Cases still rose BUT DEATHS NOT!
I like that gap below. Me likey. Obvs deaths = lagging so let's wait and see but so far the rise of cases not MASSIVELY SURGING so don't be alarmed. Plus deaths/cases gap wide, which is good.

Hope this thread cheered u up even though trend is pretty bad for Asia, Southeast Asia
Let me end this thread of cases in Asia w/ vaccination rates in Asia by saying the following:

Southeast Asia, esp Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia & Thailand at the BOTTOM for vaccination rates & below world.

Needs to do better ASAP. Also where cases are rising. So?
If Israel, US & UK data come out to show that vaccination = reduction of deaths + hospitalization, then we got a situation where those that vaccinated vs not will have divergent performance economically & socially. Because we need to move to ENDEMIC ASAP. End of 2021 please.
Southeast Asia has a lot of catching up to do & it needs to do it like NOW. You are also seeing more headlines of these economies more urgently acquiring jabs etc. And so it's not all negative. Perhaps the delta variant will change the trajectory of vaccination for the positive.
And to loop this back to the US/geopolitics, if it really wants to influence the region, perhaps helping these economies w/ acquiring jabs is a good start. They are rather desperate to get some, as they should be. We are seeing the beginning of the end or a huge divergence.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Trinh

Trinh Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
Oct 24
"The new approach is rooted in a core belief in Beijing: that Trump is fundamentally transactional, not ideological. Policymakers believe they can use Trump’s zest for a deal to neutralize the China hawks in his administration."

But Trump is a trade hawk. He has had the same view since the 1980s no matter what the "experts" have said. He is ideological in this point of view. He sees manufacturing as key to economic strength, the same as Xi actually.
Interesting to look at Xi and Trump meeting to compare Stalin and Franklin Roosevelt meeting at Yalta. Stalin had UK spies telling him all about the "red lines" for the UK and the US. So he came to the meeting totally prepared. Stalin was willing to give the US the "red lines" but in return, he took everything else, including territories in Japan, a foothold into Asia via China, and finally Eastern Europe, including Poland, where Churchill was busy drinking and talking too much to achieve much. This paved ways for Mao and the Communists to emerge in China. And the rest is history.

So does Trump have "red lines" that Xi know? If so, to get that, what would Xi ask in return? Interesting to see this playing out. Irrespective, we are entering strategic decoupling at great speed deal or no deal.
Another interesting fact to compare Franklin vs Stalin meeting was to look at Xi vs Trump's background. Trump came from wealth and has pretty had a pretty cushy life vs Xi whose father was part of the founding members of the communist party but was purged from the CCP and sent to work in factory. Xi essentially suffered as a child and teenager and grew up in China's tough decades.

Meanwhile, Trump grew up when the US dominated the world & still does but going through a tough transition. And so they both see the past and future in a different lenses.

Still, I think to think that Trump is only transactional and not ideological is not entirely true. He fundamentally believe in manufacturing and strategic autonomy and sees the US globalist agenda as a threat to national security, especially dependency on China for US defense supply chain. Lighthizer in the latest FT lunch interview also commented the same.
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Oct 15
Good question. Let me just answer this with below tables.

First, whatever China lost in market share in exports to the US, Vietnam has gained. The best example is in mobile phones.

Now, is it REROUTING? As in just Chinese phones that are then trans-shipped to the US? Image
First, we have to realize that Vietnam went through two stages of FDI.

The first stage is driven by NORTH ASIANS that are basically fed up with geopolitical tensions and too much competition from China (think Japan in 2010 w/ rare earth and South Korea with THAAD but even before) and so what do they do?

They MOVE their production base slowly out of China into where? Well, for South Korea, it was Vietnam.

Samsung Electronics moved into Vietnam in the early 2000s to the point now more than 50% of their stuff is exported out of Vietnam. But not only. Many other Korean stuff.

Also Japanese etc. So what you see in the telecom here is not CHINESE PHONES but KOREAN PHONES.

The second wave of course is Chinese outward FDI themselves and also increasingly EUROPEANS.

Anyway, let's talk about phones.Image
For phones, the key thing I want to show here is that while Vietnam exports have grown a lot, over time, the IMPORTS of that have DECLINED.

And they have declined everywhere. People that look at China all day long think Vietnam only trades with China.

No, Vietnam is a relatively big trader for its small economic size so it TRADES WITH MANY ECONOMIES, the US and also South Korea etc.

Long story short here is that Vietnam is importing less of inputs while exporting more and that tells you that overtime supply chains are DEEPENING THERE FOR THAT ITEM. And it's not transhipment.

But what's RISING in imports FROM EVERYONE? WELL, capital intensive stuff. Vietnam is importing a lot of machinery etc from EVERYWHERE.

Note that it imports a lot from South Korea and Japan, Taiwan etc as well as China.Image
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Oct 15
Did you know that Vietnam's Q3 GDP grew 8.2%YoY and Q2 was 8%? It is one of the few countries in Asia where manufacturing share of GDP is rising even as Chinese imports flood the market. Why?

“In contrast to other countries that are stuck in political paralysis, Vietnam has moved very swiftly to secure lower tariffs and reform its economy to increase productivity and competitiveness,” @Trinhnomics , a senior economist at Natixis SA, said. “This has allowed Vietnam to emerge as a winner under Trump 2.0 despite high tariffs because it’s favored as a foreign direct investment destination for those wanting to diversify away from worsening US-China tensions.”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Look at manufacturing across Asia and what do you see? Its down for India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia.

But not Vietnam. It's up. The fact of the matter is Vietnam faces a widening trade deficit with China but at the same time it has turned that into an overall trade surplus, which means that Vietnam value add has risen over time.

And you can see it clearly in its manufacturing share of GDP or global market share. Has been slowly steady climb.Image
This year, in 2025 manufacturing output surged 9.92% in the first nine months of 2025 from a year earlier, with around 77% of companies surveyed by the National Statistics Office saying export orders were higher or at the same level, a sign that US buyers are shrugging off the tariff hit for now.

What is Vietnam doing right? Well, first, the most important thing is that it wants manufacturing above all else. Vietnamese people need formal jobs and by prioritizing that, Vietnam is now focusing on the next leg of development, which is how to ADD MORE VALUE.

Blink and you will miss the biggest reform story of Asia. Vietnam literally redrew its map & made one of the biggest structural reforms in decades.
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Oct 13
Rare earth is in the news again. Of course it is not rare, just that you gotta dig deep and then obvs process it. That entire process is polluting, costly and the output itself doesn't yield a lot.

That's how China has captured the market. It's willing to do polluting working and basically sells more not a lot. But having cornered that market, it also sees it as leverage, which it has used since 2010 (with Japan). The weaponization of supply chain is what we call it.

The free market economics of it makes sense for people to just leave it to China to do rare earth & then focus on the more market profitable business. Until, well, dun, dun dun.
So how should a firm or government view rare earth? Should you go and pay HIGHER price than what the Chinese rare earths are going for to then secure resilience of supply chain?

Most say, well, "Nah." That is a costly move because well, others will outcompete you with cheaper Chinese inputs while you go dig and refine your rare-earth magnets. Not an economically worthwhile endeavor.

But not everyone has taken that decision. Here is a story of a company that didn't: General Motors.
Here I summarize the great reporting of the WSJ Jon Emont and Christopher Otts.

As you know, we have known this issue for a long time & Japan knew about it since 2010. So the Japanese usually have about 1 year of this stockpile, just in case. Not the Americans.

The car industry is pretty dependent on rare-earth magnets. GM decided that Covid shocks, which left it with semiconductor shortage, that it should secure non-Chinese rare earth magnets.

This sort of decision takes years to bear fruit so it is one with risks. Why? Well, your competitors can buy cheaper Chinese rare earth while you are trying to get more expensive non-Chinese.

wsj.com/business/autos…
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Oct 13
Here we go, as I'll go on TV soon with @JoumannaTV to discuss data, let's take a look at China September trade data that just came out.

September exports rose 8.3%YoY in USD and imports increased 7.4%YoY.

Year-to-date, exports grew 6.1% while imports declined -1.1%YoY.
By destination, China exports to the US fell -16.9% but to Asia rising rapidly.

Exports to India rose 12.9% and India deficit with China is accelerating, with imports not just intermediates for production but also final consumer goods.

Shipment to ASEAN rose 14.7% with fastest growth to Thailand and Vietnam (+22.5% and 22.3%, respectively). The sharp increase of shipment reflect supply chain diversification but also rising imports for domestic demand in ASEAN that also poses challenges to domestic industries.

Exports to the EU rose 8.2% with shipment to Germany increasing +10.5%.

Interestingly, China exports to Russia has fallen this year by -11.3% as Russia puts up curbs to some Chinese exports.
China trade surplus in September:
#1 EU 22.9
#2 USA 22.8bn
#3 ASEAN 17.2bn
#4 India 10.3bn
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Sep 16
Should the US drop quarterly earnings? Well, the UK doesn't require it and neither does the EU.

Is it a controversial idea? Many people think it's a good idea to ditch it, including BlacRock CEO Larry Fink.

Fact: Hillary Clinton is also not a fan of quarterly earnings requirement.

It's one of the reforms people think will reduce shorterm-ism that is rather bipartisan.
ft.com/content/d5d463…Image
Here is Hilary Clinton going off against quarterly earnings.

Interesting that they got only quotes in that article of people thinking it is a terrible idea to get rid of it.

A lot of people think getting rid of it is a good idea.

Btw, companies can still report quarterly earnings. The SEC is saying you don't have to if you don't want to in proposing it.

European companies report quarterly earnings. Some don't. It's the optionality that's key.

theguardian.com/business/us-mo…
You can watch Hillary's actual speech. She's against quarterly earnings.

Many people are. Quarterlyism capitalism.

c-span.org/program/campai…
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(