Darren 🥚🐣🕊️ Profile picture
Jul 22, 2021 14 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/ Do Real Estate Brokers Add Value When Listing Services are Unbundled? (Bernheim, Meer)

"In an open-access listing service used by all sellers, when listings are not tied to brokers, a seller's use of a broker reduces final sale price by 5.9-7.7%."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ "Our market has a single open-access listing service used by essentially all sellers, regardless of whether they employ brokers. The market consists of roughly 800 houses and condominiums located in a collection of largely contiguous neighborhoods on Stanford University land.
3/ "Because ownership is limited to Stanford faculty and some senior staff, the MLS plays no role. (The listing service is free.) Brokers charge standard commissions (historically 5-6%).

"This allows us to identify effects of brokerage services when separated from MLS listings."
4/ "There is fluidity between on-campus and off-campus housing. A substantial fraction of faculty members choose to live off-campus, and prices on campus have historically tracked off-campus prices. Stanford housing is more properly viewed as a neighborhood than as a market."
5/ Column 1: "The use of a broker is correlated with observed characteristics that enhance a home’s value (e.g. larger homes are more likely to sell through brokers). Since brokers earn more from more valuable homes, this may reflect targeted efforts to obtain valuable listings."
6/ "With home fixed effects (column 4), broker coefficient implies a price impact of -5.9%.

"The year-propensity interaction term coefficients rise over time, so column 4's broker coefficient may be biased upward.

"The coefficient in column 5 implies a price impact of -7.5%."
7/ "We see no basis in out results for an inference that those who use brokers are significantly less aggressive or effective negotiators than those who do not and hence no grounds for concern that that the estimates of broker effects in Table 2 are biased downward."
8/ "The size of the estimated effects on initial asking price and sale price are roughly comparable. Though the estimates are not precise, they suggest that much of the effect of brokers on selling prices may reflect encouraging sellers to set lower initial asking prices."
9/ "Using a broker is associated with a probability of sale slightly (substantially) higher during the first (second) month.

"To the extent a broker reduces time-to-sale, the effect appears to involves quick sales.

"Including home fixed effects yields ambiguous results."
10/ "The effects of interest may differ across some brokers. In particular, both the selling price and the initial asking price tended to be noticeably higher when one particular broker handled transactions, and those differences were economically and statistically significant.
11/ "In specifications analogous to equation (2) in Tables 2 & 3, the estimated impact on selling price for that broker is 0.0856 (s.e. 0.0374), and the impact on list price is 0.0509 (s.e. 0.0390). Otherwise, broker effects on both asking & selling prices were fairly uniform."
12/ Conclusion: "We have examined the effects of real estate brokerage services provided to sellers when MLS listings are not relevant. Because a seller presumably benefits from an MLS listing, including MLS listings (as other studies have done) may obscure the agency costs."
13/ More reading:

Incentives & Performance in Real Estate Brokerage


Relative Performance of Real Estate Marketing Platforms: MLS vs. Fsbomadison.Com


Expertise Value Added in the Real Estate Market
14/ Market Distortions When Agents are Better Informed: The Value of Information in Real Estate Transactions

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More from @ReformedTrader

Apr 25
1/ Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (Michael Lewis)

"Baseball was at the center of a story about the possibilities—and limits—of reason. It showed how an unscientific culture responds (or fails to respond) to the scientific method." (p. xiv)

amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-…Image
2/ "A small group of undervalued professional players & executives, many of whom had been rejected as unfit for the big leagues, turned themselves into one of the most successful franchises.

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Feb 4
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papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

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Read 15 tweets
May 18, 2024
1/ Skewness and kurtosis

* Everything has excess kurtosis
* Unlike market returns, individual stocks aren't negatively skewed
* Option prices underestimate kurtosis and overestimate negative skewness
* Implied moments don't consistently predict stock returns
* Sell options?? Image
2/ Asset classes have fat tails, and most have negative skewness.

Kurtosis & expected returns


Kurtosis-Based vs Volatility-Based Asset Allocation


Impact of Skewness and Fat Tails on Asset Allocation

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3/ This has practical consequences, and it's a good idea to be prepared.

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When Genius Failed: The Rise & Fall of Long-Term Capital Management


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Read 5 tweets
Jan 1, 2024
1/ Fact, Fiction, and Factor Investing (Aghassi, Asness, Fattouche, Moskowitz)

"We reference an extensive academic literature and perform simple but powerful analyses to address claims about factor investing."

aqr.com/Insights/Resea…
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2/ #1. Fiction: Factors are Data-Mined with No Good Economic Story

"Value, momentum, carry, and defensive/quality pass the more stringent statistical tests.

"Many of the factor tests conducted in papers are on variations of a few central themes."




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3/ "Value, momentum & defensive/quality applied to US individual stocks has a t-stat of 10.8. Data mining would take nearly a trillion random trials to find this.

"Applying those factors (+carry) across markets and asset classes gets a t-stat of >14."





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Read 14 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
1/ Happily Ever After? Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Happiness in Germany (Zimmermann, Easterlin)

"The formation of unions (separation or divorce) has a positive (negative) effect on life satisfaction. We also see a 'honeymoon period' effect."

researchgate.net/publication/49…
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2/ "The model's four terms describe different life stages for an individual who marries during the sample period. The intercept reflects the average life satisfaction of individuals in the baseline period [all noncohabiting years that are at least one year before marriage]."


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3/ " 'How satisfied are you with your life, all things considered?' Responses are ranked on a scale from 0 (completely dissatisfied) to 10 (completely satisfied).

"We center life satisfaction scores around the annual mean of each population subsample in the original population."
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Read 29 tweets
Aug 13, 2023
1/ Short-sightedness, rates moves and a potential boost for value (Hanauer, Baltussen, Blitz, Schneider)

* Value spread remains wide
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robeco.com/en-int/insight…
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2/ "The valuation gap between cheap and expensive stocks remains extremely wide. This signals the potential for attractive returns going forward."


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3/ "We observe a robust negative relationship between value returns and changes in the value spread.

"The intercept of ≈10% can be interpreted as a cleaner estimate of the value premium, given that it is purged of the time-varying effects of multiple expansions & compressions." Image
Read 7 tweets

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