Karam Bales Profile picture
Jul 23, 2021 21 tweets 6 min read Read on X
🧵DCT trial results are being trumpeted by Telegraph today.

I was one of those saying they were unethical, and knowing how concerns of CEV families were treated in some of these schools I maintain that view.

I think its important to note the size and context of the trial.
Here's a link to the trial details.

The timing for the trial March to June was shortly after schools went back, cases were very low, Delta was still rising to dominance with cases starting to rise at the end.
I'm not an expert in this, but Jon is.

As he explains, the study is underpowered and contains gaps in the data, large margins of error, and inconclusive results

To claim this study is proof, is disingenuous
This was when we had low Alpha transmission
47 control schools, 59 intervention schools had cases where DCT was relevant.

Note contacts identified by standard DfE guidence which we know is leaky (whole year groups aren't usually sent home from 1 case, particularly at this time)
Incidence was higher than index cases, thought this is due to not all schools actively reported cases and not all community diagnosed infections were reported or recorded.
The Orient LFD picked up 53% of PCR cases
We did not clearly demonstrate the superiority of the intervention.
"Despite the lack of statistical evidence" it should reduce absence rates but may be more limited

The margin of error for reducing transmission in this study is wide
Interesting that participation was lower in more disadvantaged areas, you'd think families less likely to be able to afford isolation would be keener to avoid it, could the higher liklihood of having an at risk family member have influenced this?
At some stages the interventions were paused because PH were concerned about Delta.

Can we apply a study done in low Alpha transmission to high Delta transmission?
Study has several limitations.
Did not directly measure in school transmission estimates based on community transmission
They did not estimate the impact of DCT in high incidence settings (as we have had now and will have in September)
Unclear if it can be generalised to other settings
They estimated in their calculations that having DCT increases weekly LFD from 30%-60%

Calculations assumed 1 positive case = 50 isolations
Does this study justify the headlines?

Why are PHE ppl and various ppl who keep saying transmission hasn't been an issue and schools and long covid is so rare we don't need to worry about measures crowing so much about this study?
I mean, the expert version of

"In your face people who thought not asking everyone involved for consent was unethical"

Seems a bit over the top when you read the study.
Worth noting only those who tested to skip isolation had to give consent.
I was told it was unfeasible for a school to get permission from all students...

My issues with the ethics and first hand account of how someone in a trial school was treated⬇️
To be honest in a lot of ways its irrelevant because Gov aren't even going to bother with DCT in September, children no longer count as close contacts.

I suspect this will just end up being used to say schools are low risk (when infections are very low)
But it will be interesting how many ppl who hold up this study as solid enough evidence to support a policy will also say we don't have enough evidence/data on child vax or long covid to worry about a strategy that chooses mass infection over vaccination

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More from @karamballes

Aug 26
🧵So Musk has decided to go off on one about the UK again

Migrants, Rape Gangs, Lucy Connolly, tweeting Tommy Robinson, and backing Rupert Lowe over Nigel Farage

Just before Farage goes to the US in September and as big antimigrant protests are planned shortly afterwards Image
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2/ Some similarities to before the Southport attack and subsequent riots, creating a narrative and setting conditions to prime potential rioters for the next event that can be used as a match to start the fires
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3/ Musk offers to fund legal actions in the UK Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 23
1/ Lucy Connollys appeal was funded by the Free Speech Union
Allison Pearson of the FSU led the media in supporting Connolly and promoted the crowdfunder that raised over £150k for Connolly (after Lawrence Fox took a 7% cut as it was his crowdfunding site that was used Image
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2/ The FSU was set up with support of Peter Thiel
James Orr a founding member of FSU is also on the Edmund Burke Foundation's board which organises NatCon, that Orr is also on the board of

JD Vance is Thiels minion, previously spent a record $15 million on getting Vance elected
3/ Vance has been leading the US attacks on free speech in the UK

The FSU has been busy backing anti-abortion and anti-trans legal cases, working alongside Christian Concern and US ADF, an important NatCon group

Vance is linked to NatCon
Read 11 tweets
Jul 13
Why is @Tony_Diver giving a full page interview to Malhotra in the Telegraph?
The self-titled "leading cardiologist" has become an antivax hero, who has to publish his papers via his own journal because they are as dodgy as anything Wakefield put out

Deeply irresponsible Image
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The platforming of disinformation grifters in mainstream papers, particularly Telegraph, Express, Daily Mail, GB News and TalkTv is contributing to the increase in vax hesitancy
People will die because of shoddy journalism from likes of @Tony_Diver
@Tony_Diver 3/ Describing Malhotra as "serious public prominence" and promoting his antivax papers without pointing out that he set up the journal it's printed in, is frankly dishonest journalism Image
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Read 17 tweets
Jun 6
1/ Telegraph and Toby Young claiming "culture nationalism" being included is the latest attack by Labour on Free Speech is a lie

The Conservatives added this to Prevent in 2023 Image
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2/ From my October 2023 article for @BylineTimes on the updated Prevent training Image
@BylineTimes 3/ While they misrepresent Conservative policy to attack Labour complaining that cultural Nationalism was too broad a term, they didn't have a problem that socialism was also added to Prevent at the same time
bylinetimes.com/2023/10/19/ter…
Read 10 tweets
Feb 14
1/ So Toby Young, now a member of the house of Lords is directly receiving support from Musk, a member of a foreign government Image
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2/ This is after the FSU jumped onto a case of a teacher appealing against a school for being dismissed for their online posts, the case was being backed by Christian Concern and FDU piggybacked as an intervener Image
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3/ Worth noting the case centred around a petition from CitizenGo, an organisation identified as being part of a US/Russian network designed to undermine sexuality and reproductive rights Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 4
🧵Trump 2.0 

While much of the UK media has focused on DEI, tariffs and confirmation hearings there's been less focus on what appears to be an attack on the US constitution, purges of people and scientific information, and efforts to supress opposition and scrutiny
2/ First a quick look at the pardoned Jan 6 rioters as an example

3/ The interim Attorney General for DC had defended some of the rioters

Read 23 tweets

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