The people running the BBC Horizon "Great British Intelligence Test" challenge on over 80,000 people took the opportunity to see if they could detect any differences by whether people had had covid or not...
2. They did this because of increasing concern over reoprted cognitive impacts of long covid - but more evidence is badly needed.
3. What they found was significant cognitive deficit for people who'd had covid compared to people that hadn't, after controlling for things like age, education, sex, first language etc.
The degree of deficit was worse the more severe the initial covid infection had been.
4. This isn't just about long covid - this compares people who had had covid with those who hadn't, regardless of ongoing symptoms. Most people who had had covid reported being recovered, but about 25% with confirmed covid reported ongoing symptoms (ie long covid).
5. The cognitive deficits remained whether ongoing symptoms were there or not, and did not depend on time since covid either.
This seems to suggest it is a long lasting effect.
It also doesn't depend on pre-existing health problems .
6. The authors put the results into context - the average deficit experienced by hospitalised covid patients (0.47 for ventilator, 0.26 no ventilator) were worse than average deficit by people who'd suffered a stroke (0.24).
7. And the types of deficity found were consistent with the sorts of cognitive problems reported by people wth long covid
8. The authors conclude that their data support other studies showing cognitive problems after covid.
Evidence for long term neurological and other impacts of covid is growing. But govt position seems to be that infections don't matter as long as NHS not overwhelmed.
9. I worry that once again we are watching an unfolding disaster while waiting for unequivocal evidence. Unquivocal evidence on long term impacts will, by definition, take months or years.
Maybe it never will - but so far, trajectory is towards more certain evidence not less.
10. What if by the time there can be no doubt of long term problems in many people who've had covid, we've allowed millions more infections leaving hundreds of thousands more people affected.
ONS estimated 634K people with long covid that impacts their life in June.
11. For comparison, c. 260K people are diagnosed with diabetes & 500K with heart disease each year.
I worry that we are creating a chronic disease tragedy right now.
Please watch this @allthecitizens video about long covid to see what it can be like.
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6
The UKHSA have now published their modelled estimates of what percentage of English population has Covid. And as of a week ago it's high (4.3%) and rising.
It's highest in London, South East and East & in young and middle aged adults.
The main thing is it's going up and fast, so prevalence will already by significantly higher now than it was last week. 3/7
Short thread on what I said on Channel 4 news tonight.
1. Did I find Hancock a sympathetic witness?
A: I find it hard to have sympathy for someone who repeatedly claimed to have thrown protective ring around care homes, while discharging covid+ patients into them.
1/5
There were *28,000* excess deaths in care homes Apr-May 2020.
Harries thought it was "clinically reasonable" not to treat covid +ve residents in hospital. Even it was, it was NOT reasonable to return them somewhere they could infect so many other very vulnerable people. 2/5
2. Did I think scientists bear blame for not emphasising asymptomatic transmission?
A: No, because they very clearly did advise there could be asymptomic transmission before March 2020 - sources in next tweet. 3/5
Hancock: "there was no way we could allow the NHS to become overwhelmed"
Except, the NHS WAS overwhelmed
Here is what NHS staff said about that time - Pls read whole 🧵
"Heartbreaking"
"Horrific"
"It broke my soul"
"We cried, we came home exhausted. We were overwhelmed"
1/16
"Overnight we were told that all “safe working rules” were gone. There was no choice, we were forced to do it"
"It felt like a death sentence. It felt out of control"
"We were put on wards with no senior support, sometimes makeshift ... with little of the right equipment"
2/16
"Terrifying. A huge sense of duty ... but also terror. We were unprepared & ovt clearly had no plan"
"We had patients on wards on 19 litres of oxygen - this would never happen under normal circumstances - they’d have come to Intensive Care but we didn’t have the space"
TLDR: modest August wave with flatlining hospital admissions, but expect a bigger wave later this autumn 1/12
Hospital admissions with Covid in England are still quite flat for 3rd week in a row and at a level below previous troughs.
Number of people with covid in critical care & primaril yin hospital because of Covid also flat & low.
Deaths ⬆️, from case rises few weeks ago 2/12
However, Zoe symptom tracker app estimating significant increases recently. Very hard to know how reliable Zoe trends are, given far fewer people reporting, but it's worth bearing in mind.