washingtonpost.com/world/guatemal… Some context: Juan Francisco Sandoval is a genuine folk hero of the anticorruption movement, completely beloved, and vast majority of Guatemalans hate corruption. This is sure to spark protests 1/
The #PactoDeCorruptos have been waging a war on anti-corruption since the 2015 uprisings that landed the President and Vice President in jail. The corrupt have capitalized on the weakness in democracy to win Congress and take revenge vs anticorruption 2/
Guatemalan elites are like Trumpers. Many see themselves as white, and emulate right wing politics and political strategies from the US, which also borrows from them. They control most of the country, the state, and its resources and operate above the law. 3/
The timing is interesting: the US just delivered 3.5 million doses of Moderna, potentially staving off growing class to remove the President, Alejandro Giammattei, who has completely mismanaged the pandemic. Guatemala ranks last in Latin America in vaccination rates 4/
with the vaccine is in hand, they openly mock the US. The vax rollout might also provide a check against uprisings because they prioritized university students, privileging middle class and non-indigenous Guatemalans, a play to divide popular forces 5/
in addition to a direct slap in the face of the @VP , it shows a fatal flaw in the US negotiating strategy. What, exactly, is the US leverage? What exactly will they do if the Pacto throws all their enemies in jail, and uses their democratic power to pursue authoritarianism? 6/
Kamala Harris refused to meet with popular and influential peasant and indigenous social movements on her recent show visit, despite the fact that these are the only groups whose proposals get to the "root causes" of migration, which lie in foundational injustices 7/
these injustices were reinforced by decades of US sponsored counterinsurgency which led to genocide in indigenous communities in the 1980s, killing 200,000 in total, destroying the economy and protecting elite interests. 8
if the Biden admin would move left, they could have real leverage on anti-corruption, which is now as good as dead. Yet Harris didn't even mention the peace accords in her visit, a moderate reform agenda that ended the armed conflict, but that the elite have steadily undermined 9
as long as the neofascist, corrupt Guatemalan elite feels secure that the US needs their support against anti-systemic movements- which represent the true face of Guatemalan democracy-and rely on them to repress them, they won't submit to corruption investigations. no way. end
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