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24 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Saturday Morning Thoughts - Thread on cheese, doctorates, and other stuff.

The cure for higher doctorate numbers is higher doctorate numbers. It's also a three-card trick. Big Cheese Interests' increased spending on R&D is causing doctorate and fancy cheese inflation.
And I know so many of you, using theoretical frameworks call bullshit on this, but this is hard to explain...

the per capita consumption of mozzarella and doctorates awarded in biological and biomedical sciences? It is the EXACT same thing.
"Don't give me cheap "correlation doesn't equal causation" gibes. It gets old and the burden of proof is on you."

As Big Business has increased higher ed R&D funding on a relative basis, consumption of "fancy doctorate cheese" has gone up vs "normal" cheese.
I have never been a doctorate printing guy.

I am doctorate neutral. Perhaps not cheese neutral.
But what I realised recently I was...

Ah.... Fuhgeddaboudit.

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More from @bauhiniacapital

baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
25 Jul
A reminder that Kyle Bass' polemic against the HKD from 2+yrs ago got totally smacked down by people who actually knew what they were talking about (because his piece is kind of a dumpster fire, and correcting his lack of understanding of HK money markets caused him to block me).
The fund he raised on a 200:1 levered all-in bet against HKD may now be nearly 2yrs old, and depending on when it launched, it may already be dead/expired. If not, it still has a chance, but I am not expecting great things from it.
Granted, it was an OTM call. And most options expire worthless. It was not a bad bet, per se, just a bet with oddly bad justifications.
Read 4 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
18 Jul
@INArteCarloDoss As noted, pensions purchase royalty streams on mining operations. They buy Bowie Bonds. They participate in mezzanine lending funds or the equity tranche for real estate deals. Yes, this is unregulated lending but it is not exactly ‘shadow banking’ b/c no bank could hold these.
@INArteCarloDoss And yes, they are outside the central bank QE cookbook ingredient list.

Yes, pensions invest in things which provide unregulated financing. That doesn’t mean it is not appropriately priced and when they do so, they know at the outset they do not have an asset-specific CB put.
@INArteCarloDoss Strangely, modern banking was founded on the practices of merchant bankers, which did indeed fund risk, both as equity and through syndication. In the UK, Barings was one but marchand-banquiers are far older. Eventually, after many lost ships in trading, they enlisted other
Read 18 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
17 Jul
I am curious how many other people came to the same conclusion.

For me, the article is something of a mess.

Pension funds and insurance companies are ‘shadow banking’?

And the complaint that QE has screwed everything up is a common one. The problem with every single of
these articles which say Something Must Be Done is it is always Something but never This Thing Must Be Done to Accomplish That Goal.

There is literally no recipe here to follow. Just a general complaint filled with odd specificities such as “Blackrock manages $8 trillion” as
if that is somehow symptomatic of how awful things have become. But there are either misunderstandings or misrepresentations. Blackrock is an asset mgr. Banks simply don’t enter the equation here unless you expect all capital activity to be intermediated by banks.
Read 22 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
11 Jul
I've made this rant before.
1) Buy side has use for SS research. But not all SS content/datapoints are useful (price targets, out-years, etc)

2) One point FIGfluencer makes is that on B/S he/she can get access to all of S/S whereas S/S cannot. The complement of that is S/S gets
to access lots of the B/S whereas that is tougher for S/S.

3) Senior S/S probably has more experience seeing what cos do with their numbers when guiding/sandbagging/beating/kitchen-sinking. That is helpful at turns (it's also helpful for b/s to study).
4) SS conflicts effectively break the model of being truly useful.

5) But SS has its uses. It's a good way for BS to outsource some of its work.

6) if BS wants to improve the utility of what SS does, all it has to do is engage. The fact that BS engages very little about their
Read 13 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
8 Jul
@ValueHao IMO neither. They are what they are. One cannot simultaneously be proud of all the tech development China has created and then kill it. So CCP brings it in line.

When automobiles were first made 120+yrs ago, driving them was a total free-for-all. Anyone could make them. Lots
@ValueHao did. But safety? Minimal. The accident/injury/death rate was significant. The first pedestrian accident was 1896. Auto insurance came out in 1897. When public outcry arose, road rules/signage became standard. Drunk driving laws were put in place (NJ 1906). Driver education too.
@ValueHao And it continued. I am not sure we shouldn't think about a lot of what is going on now as a similar governmental reaction. China's govt today is different than US state/federal govts 100yrs ago. And the context is different, both domestically and geopolitically, but anything
Read 4 tweets
baufinanciaphaster 👹 Profile picture
8 Jul
Very interesting thread on China's "crackdown" and within a Chinese perspective on control, makes utter sense.
A lot of tech development in China has been in the mode of "move fast and break things" (or "Shenzhen speed") and the war has been a war for territory on the idea platform size will eventually win in "winner-take-all" markets.

China has, sporadically, been taking aim at the
"winner-take-all" construct and abuse of market power. The pulling of the Ant Financial IPO and BABA's fine were recent examples.

There was a good article in the WSJ about 3mos ago which talked about the aftermath of how officials had been shocked about the potential for media
Read 30 tweets

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