So Avalara is a Quiet Giant in SaaS -- that you don't know enough about
At $600m ARR, growing 38%+, it does something both boring AND hard
It sells tax compliance software to SMEs
5 Interesting Learnings: ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
#1. 15,580 customers, up 20% year-over-year — or $40,000 per customer per year on average.
NRR is 107%, fairly consistently over the past 4 quarters. Good but not great for a $40k deal.
What they do is mission critical, so ACVs from SMEs are pretty high
#2. 1000 partners are key to their GTM strategy. And “in 950 of the partners, Avalara has no competition”.
Like HubSpot, Shopify and other leaders that sell sophisticated, $10k+ solutions to SMEs, partners are key to implementation.
They invest >heavily< here
#3. $180,000 revenue per employee. With 3,351 employees, Avalara is not that leveraged.
We’ve seen this with sales-driven SMB and SME leaders like Xero as well. If you are selling to SMBs, you have to be efficient. Especially if they need a lot of human interaction.
#4. 7% of revenues from prof services — which have 48% margins
Avalara leans on partners to do most of the heavy lifting here (see #2), but they still provide them for larger customers. They mark the services up about 2x. They don’t lose money on services.
#5. Driving upmarket to cross $1B in ARR, but $100k is still a big customer for them
Avalara is fueling growth to $1B ARR by pushing into $100k+ deals, but it didn't rush there.
Their core is still SME and it got to hundreds of millions of ARR while remaining SME focused:
And a few bonus notes
#6. It wasn't a rocketship to start.
Avalara was founded in 2004, took 16 years to hit the first $500m in ARR, in 2020.
But the compounding now is epic.
#7. Gross annual churn of 4%, NRR of 107%.
It’s great to see an SME leader disclose the combo of gross churn and NRR.
#8. Long-tail drive revenue.
Most of us underinvest in our partner ecosystem, see #2 above
A great visual here about how their 1000+ partners bring in revenue and deals for them:
#9. Finally, deal sizes are up across all segments — Small, Medium, & Large
Enterprise is $71k ACV, Mid-market is $36k, SMB is $23k, and small customers are $14k ACV
Deal sizes are all up over the past 24 mos outside of smallest customers
So today’s been a time of introspection and reflection. I have learned a lot becoming a ‘vibe coder’ and it has been addictive. For real.
My #1 learning is an old one, re-learned: Building Great Software is Still Hard.
Getting going is easier than ever. 🧵
On the dev tools side, I’ve asked all the best CTOs in my portfolio how much they really benefit from Cursor, Claude Code, et. al.
The consistent answer: net net, no one is giving back their Claude Code. No one. But net net, alone, it lets folks move about 20%-40% faster.
Why? These tools (all really Anthropic LLMs) help everyone do routine work faster, and in fact, some of the best devs I talk to can do 90% of most of their routine work in prompts.
But what about the hard stuff? The stuff that hasn’t been done before? The novel stuff?
What about the planning? The thinking?
What about code reviews and checking the work?
That all takes time.
So net net many are seeing a 20%-40% real productivity boost from Claude Code et. al. Much higher for routine stuff, but net net of all of the job — that’s where it seems to land today.
On the platform side, the B2C side, Replit+Loveable etc., this tools are magical. Magical. Maybe more than magical.
If you want to build a POC or prototype, it’s all magic, really.
But in the end, if you want to built true commercial grade apps, then they are … just tools.
Flawed tools, magical tools, but tools. At least today.
You can now think up an app and see it prototyped in < 20 minutes. Longer if you want all the buttons to work, but still.
But getting to >great< software? That’s in its own ways is hard as ever. Even if the tools are so much cooler, faster, and slicker.
Now it gets a little crazier. Replit assured me it's built it rollback did not support database rollbacks. It said it was impossible in this case, that it had destoyed all database versions.
It turns out Replit was wrong, and the rollback did work. JFC.
Replit went rogue again, lied, and then said we couldn't roll back.
But we could. I'm still processing all this.
Is it OK there are NO guardrails to deleting a production database?
Why did Replit "lie"? Also, why did it not know about how this feature worked?
Look, no matter what, deleting a >production< database is NOT OK.
But Replit lied / was wrong, and I just rolled back. And it >seems< OK.
I'm not even out of bed yet and I'm already planning my day on @Replit.
Today is AI Day, to really add AI to our algo.
I'm excited. And yet ... yesterday was full of lies and deceit.
@Replit Ok I have 2 main goals today:
1. Keep working on minimizing rogue changes, lies, code overwrites, and making up fake data
2. Get our AI working
Now, yesterday was crazy. Until 9pm or so, I wasn't sure we made any progress at all.
Because Replie was lying and being deceptive all day. It kept covering up bugs and issues by creating fake data, fake reports, and worse of all, lying about our unit test.
We built detailed unit tests to test system performance. When the data came back and less than half were functioning, did Replie want to fix them?
No. Instead, it lied. It made up a report than almost all systems were working.
Let me be clear about at least one thing: @Replit is the most addictive app I’ve ever used. At least since being a kid.
(@lovable_dev is great, too. We used it to build a core landing page. I’m not taking ‘sides’, but for this project, I chose Replit).
Last night I was thinking about vibe coding in the middle of the night. I checked on my app on my phone at dinner. And while I opened up the WSJ first this morning, my brain would have prefer Replit. I’ve dropped tons of other things to make more time to be with Replie.
Will I get there? Will I go from ideation to a 100% commercial-quality app all inside a vibe coding app? Without hiring a dev, coding myself, etc. etc.?
I don’t know. I give it a 50/50 shot right now. But I am … addicted. I need the hit.
In fact, I’m a totally different person than I was a week ago. @HarryStebbings said he saw it when my responsiveness plummet. I’m locked in.
The goal today: slow it down.
My biggest fear, and 100s of you have shared it yourself, is that vibe coded apps are never stable. That the AI keeps rewriting them when you think you’re about 50% of the way there.
I’m there, too. So my goal is to slow it down. Vibe Coding makes you feel like a superhero, but as cool as it is, I’m not SaaS Superman.
So today I am going to lock down as much of the app as I can. Research more on how to minimize rewrites. And really make sure my unit tests actually work.
If I spent all day on my unit and other tests, that would be good. Instead of instantly building new features :)
I spend $200+ yesterday on Replit and will likely spend that much today. When you go all-in, with Claude 4 and extended windows and GPUs blazing, it’s not $25/month.
It’s a little more than $1 a minute to use Replit in max/max mode. That’s “cheap” vs a human. But not “I built my own Notion for $2” cheap.
But I almost don’t care. I’m … addicted to vibe coding.
🧵 We sent 4,495 AI SDR emails in 2 weeks and got the #1 response rate on our platform. Here's what actually works (and why 90% of companies fail at this):
👉Why This Matters: The window for going public with lower growth rates is wide open.
Public markets are rewarding ANY profitable growth right now. Companies that hesitate and wait for “perfect metrics” will miss the easiest IPO environment in years.
✅Action Items: If you’re profitable and growing, don’t wait.
If you’re unprofitable, get to breakeven fast or raise enough capital to survive the next wave. There’s no middle ground anymore.
#2: Growth Gets 13x Revenue Multiples vs 5x for Slow Growth – The Great Separation
The Math That Explains Everything
The valuation gap between fast and slow growers has never been wider:
🚀>25% Growth Companies: 13x revenue multiples (based on just 8 companies – that’s how rare they are)
🐌<25% Growth Companies: 4-5x revenue multiples (based on 163 companies)
🥇The Scarcity Factor: Only 5% of public software companies are growing >25% today, down from 26% in 2021
👉Historical Context:
We’ve gone from 17% median revenue growth (2021) to just 9% today. High-growth companies aren’t just getting premium valuations – they’re becoming unicorns in public markets.
🏃♀️The Brutal Reality:
Growth isn’t just valuable – it’s becoming extinct. If you’re growing fast, you’re literally in the top 5% of all software companies. Public markets are treating you like the rare asset you are.
✅Action Items:
If you’re growing >25%, leverage this scarcity for maximum valuation. If you’re growing <25%, understand you’re competing with 95% of the market for scraps.