@AJentleson@sahilkapur We should consider whether voter attitudes get such attention because they are decisive with legislators, or because they can be measured accurately and tracked over time.
@AJentleson@sahilkapur That legislators track surveys of voters attitudes is beyond question. What about large donors? Legislators hear what donors think — most of the spend more time talking with donors than they do with ordinary voters — but donors are hard to survey.
@AJentleson@sahilkapur Voters who disagree with something a legislator has done may support him anyway, or not vote. A lot of voters have to turn against a legislator for it to make a difference to his future. Donors can decline to give money if they’re offended; legislators notice this right away.
@AJentleson@sahilkapur Why would bipartisanship matter to wealthy donors? It probably doesn’t matter to all of them. But a requirement for bipartisanship is an obstacle to certain kinds of legislation some donors may dislike, such as tax increases.
@AJentleson@sahilkapur More generally, wealthy donors have a lot to lose, because they are, well, wealthy. People like that can be nervous about change, even if it does not appear to directly affect their interests. Change by consensus is less threatening (partly because it happens less often).
@AJentleson@sahilkapur Finally, wealthy Democratic donors may care more about issues ordinary voters care less about, and vice versa. No one able to drop $10,000 to a PAC is likely to ever have much trouble voting, or be frequently pulled over by police.
@AJentleson@sahilkapur The difficulty is, we don’t know how to measure donors’ influence on legislators - certainly not with the clarity apparent in surveys of voter opinion. That doesn’t mean the influence isn’t a factor. We just talk about things like the appeal of bipartisanship as though it isn’t.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Short climate change thread. Earlier this month, "...scientists did not hide their alarm that an usually cool part of the Pacific northwest had been turned into a furnace." As a @guardian editorial warned, uncertainty about climate change goes both ways. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Some models may overestimate the effects of climate change. But even very good models can be wrong the other way, too: bigger changes hitting us sooner than we thought, and more difficult to reverse or adapt to.
If anything, climate models seem to underestimate, more than they overestimate, local effects of climate change. We are not prepared for this -- not only for the extreme weather events themselves, but for their lasting impacts.
Between @joshtpm and @JakeSherman, I think Josh is closer to being right where Biden and the Senate filibuster are concerned. It should be possible to pass Biden’s spending & tax priorities in legislation that cannot be filibuster — in practice, a significant limitation....
....of the filibuster by itself. When the Senate does get to democracy promotion legislation is when the rubber will truly meet the road. Democrats will need public attention to be on the popular things they want to do — on voting rights, election rules, government ethics.
They will not want public attention to be on bickering over the filibuster, a point of procedure that the Twitterverse and some liberal commentators have deluded themselves into believing voters care about.
I promised myself to stay away from direct comment on Rush Limbaugh. @conor64 has some thoughts worth the time here. I did want to say something about Limbaugh's audience. [thread]
Limbaugh was all about opinion without responsibility. Obviously. He was a radio host. He never had to write a bill or get a road fixed or negotiate with a foreign government or do any of the things that people in government need to do for the government to work.
I think it was this that drew so many people to Limbaugh's show, and made him a role model for so many other people in conservative media and, eventually, people in conservative politics. These were people who liked expressing opinion, and disdained responsibility.
We can look at the argument @ThePlumLineGS makes here from a different, more institutional standpoint. What took place on January 6 was a physical attack on the national legislature, incited by the executive. What recourse does the former have in such a case? [thread]
The majority Republican position, as of now, is that the legislature — Congress — has no recourse. The attack on Congress was incited; it was made; and Congress must simply accept it. Impeachment cannot be a remedy, because the President is no longer in office.
Little effort is required to understand the absurdity of this position, from the standpoint of Congress as an institution. As @ThePlumLineGS makes clear, the point of the attack was to be the culmination of the President’s campaign to stay in power — in effect, to be a coup.
It’s been 30 years since the Gulf War, celebrated at the time as a great American victory. Officials in GHW Bush’s administration never stopped praising themselves for it. Samuel Helfont takes a more jaundiced view, & it’s not hard to see why. [thread] tnsr.org/2021/02/the-gu…
A “precision” air campaign that struck many more targets than it needed to; ideas for the postwar period that assumed Saddam Hussein’s departure with no plan to make this happen; reactive diplomacy that led Gulf War allies to distance themselves from the US.
The aftermath of the Gulf War included a protracted American military commitment in the Middle East to contain the regime that had lost the war — a goad to extremists & excuse for American policy makers to defer thinking about what a post-Cold War world order would look like.