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Tom Shugart Profile picture
@tshugart3
Jul 25, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
UPDATE: it looks like the PLA may be at it again.

Poking around MarineTraffic.com last night, I noticed something a bit odd…
Just sitting there, anchored off the coast of Guandong Province southwest of Hong Kong, are two large roll-on/roll-off passenger ferries, more than a thousand miles from their normal routes crossing the Yellow Sea. Image
The two ferries, which you can check out realtime for yourself via these links, are the BO HAI MA ZHU, built in 2015 at over 33000 gross tons, owned by Bo Hai ferries and homeported at Yantai on the Yellow Sea… marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…
…and the HU LU DAO, built in 2005 at over 16000 gross tons, owned by China Shipping Passenger Liner Co. and homeported at Dalian, also on the Yellow Sea in northern China. marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…
Both ferries appear to be anchored for more than 24 hrs, & each made a stop in a nearby port (2 different ones) before they moved to where they are now.

The nearest coastline appears to consist of sandy beaches, and is near the amphibious training area from the 2020 ramp tests. Image
So…we have two large ro/ro car ferries, one that’s part of an organized unit of the PRC Maritime Militia, just sitting there—not making money in their normal manner—at a known amphibious training area more than a thousand miles from home. digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewconten… Image
My guess: the PLA’s efforts to integrate China’s world-class merchant marine into its amphibious assault forces continue; if successful, this could potentially increase its cross-Strait Taiwan sealift capacity immensely, removing one of the major obstacles to invasion of Taiwan.
Would you like to know more? See section V of my recent testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: cnas.org/publications/c…
UPDATE: China confirms the use of civilian ships as part of "cross-sea exercises" in this article. globaltimes.cn/page/202107/12…
Looks like the units loaded onto the civilian ships were both from the PLAN Marine Corps... Image
...and also from the PLA Ground Force. Image
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More from @tshugart3

Tom Shugart Profile picture
Oct 27
PRC SEALIFT UPDATE: based on a review of satellite imagery & AIS data from recent landing exercises, it appears China is practicing using dual-use civil-military landing craft for direct beach assault.

Of note, while info is sparse, these ships appear to exist in large numbers. Image
To the details: for a few years now, we've seen what've been known as "deck cargo ships" being used in PLA military transport exercises. Image
Image
For details, see the work of analysts like Conor Kennedy... digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/4/
Read 24 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Oct 8
This has been making the rounds—another article calling for U.S. conventional submarines—so I suppose it's time to weigh in. In this case, the article is written by someone personally knowledgeable of submarine operations—a U.S. submariner.

However...
usni.org/magazines/proc…
...the article seems to be missing consideration of two key factors that IMO continue to make the idea of U.S. (manned) diesel-electric submarines a bad idea: advances in autonomy, and the PLA Rocket Force.
First, autonomy: he explicitly calls for these diesel boats as cruise missile platforms (SSGs), making a point to separate them from the multi-mission capabilities of U.S. SSNs.
No need for ISR, ASW, or torpedo capability. Ok, great—this sounds like a perfect job for an XXLUUV. Image
Read 16 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Oct 6
It's taken me a bit of time to get around to addressing this article by Jennifer Kavanagh about US-PRC-Taiwan relations in the NYT, but here we go.
She's pretty clear about how we got where we are: close to a US-PRC war, that the problem started with Taiwan. Image
She says the situation is not pre-ordained, and that the best way to avoid a war is to restrain US military posture in the region and tell Taiwan they may be on their own.
(I'd say she's half-right: it didn't have to be this way; but I'd place the blame elsewhere.)Image
Read 18 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Sep 5
Ok, a few more thoughts on some of the things we saw in this week’s PLA parade. I’ll start in the undersea domain, with this large UUV.

Going back and looking at the footage, you can see in this shot that it appears to have a couple of sonar arrays. Image
My guess is that those are a flank array and a bow array.

We can also see 4 masts/antennas: 3 appear to be retractable with a closure panel and one fixed on a short mast near the stern (see above). Image
Based on the number of sensors - sonar for acoustic detection, masts perhaps for EW/ESM, video, perhaps a snorkel for a diesel, I’m guessing this is an ISR UUV.

From this shot, it appears it has a 9-bladed propulsor. Image
Read 13 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Sep 3
China’s parade is about to get started. Xi is making a speech where he says China is a force for peace, development, etc. Anyway…time to roll those new missiles, UxVs, armored vehicles, etc.

(I’ll be posting any stuff that I see that’s particularly interesting. Here we go…) Image
Right now it’s just Xi driving by - wondering now if they’re going to roll this stuff past like in the past or if this is it? Image
Looks like some unmanned undersea and surface vessels (UUVs and USVs). Image
Read 26 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Aug 5
Image
hooboy, that's a lot of doing things the wrong way...😬 Image
I recall time there being significance attached to the "dropped two wts" message in the reporting at the time, as an indication they had a problem & needed to come up. Apparently completely normal.

In contrast, I recall no word that THEY HEARD A BANG FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE. 😬 Image
Read 14 tweets

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