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Tom Shugart Profile picture
@tshugart3
Jul 25, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
UPDATE: it looks like the PLA may be at it again.

Poking around MarineTraffic.com last night, I noticed something a bit odd…
Just sitting there, anchored off the coast of Guandong Province southwest of Hong Kong, are two large roll-on/roll-off passenger ferries, more than a thousand miles from their normal routes crossing the Yellow Sea. Image
The two ferries, which you can check out realtime for yourself via these links, are the BO HAI MA ZHU, built in 2015 at over 33000 gross tons, owned by Bo Hai ferries and homeported at Yantai on the Yellow Sea… marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…
…and the HU LU DAO, built in 2005 at over 16000 gross tons, owned by China Shipping Passenger Liner Co. and homeported at Dalian, also on the Yellow Sea in northern China. marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…
Both ferries appear to be anchored for more than 24 hrs, & each made a stop in a nearby port (2 different ones) before they moved to where they are now.

The nearest coastline appears to consist of sandy beaches, and is near the amphibious training area from the 2020 ramp tests. Image
So…we have two large ro/ro car ferries, one that’s part of an organized unit of the PRC Maritime Militia, just sitting there—not making money in their normal manner—at a known amphibious training area more than a thousand miles from home. digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewconten… Image
My guess: the PLA’s efforts to integrate China’s world-class merchant marine into its amphibious assault forces continue; if successful, this could potentially increase its cross-Strait Taiwan sealift capacity immensely, removing one of the major obstacles to invasion of Taiwan.
Would you like to know more? See section V of my recent testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: cnas.org/publications/c…
UPDATE: China confirms the use of civilian ships as part of "cross-sea exercises" in this article. globaltimes.cn/page/202107/12…
Looks like the units loaded onto the civilian ships were both from the PLAN Marine Corps... Image
...and also from the PLA Ground Force. Image
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More from @tshugart3

Tom Shugart Profile picture
Sep 5
Ok, a few more thoughts on some of the things we saw in this week’s PLA parade. I’ll start in the undersea domain, with this large UUV.

Going back and looking at the footage, you can see in this shot that it appears to have a couple of sonar arrays. Image
My guess is that those are a flank array and a bow array.

We can also see 4 masts/antennas: 3 appear to be retractable with a closure panel and one fixed on a short mast near the stern (see above). Image
Based on the number of sensors - sonar for acoustic detection, masts perhaps for EW/ESM, video, perhaps a snorkel for a diesel, I’m guessing this is an ISR UUV.

From this shot, it appears it has a 9-bladed propulsor. Image
Read 13 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Sep 3
China’s parade is about to get started. Xi is making a speech where he says China is a force for peace, development, etc. Anyway…time to roll those new missiles, UxVs, armored vehicles, etc.

(I’ll be posting any stuff that I see that’s particularly interesting. Here we go…) Image
Right now it’s just Xi driving by - wondering now if they’re going to roll this stuff past like in the past or if this is it? Image
Looks like some unmanned undersea and surface vessels (UUVs and USVs). Image
Read 26 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Aug 5
Image
hooboy, that's a lot of doing things the wrong way...😬 Image
I recall time there being significance attached to the "dropped two wts" message in the reporting at the time, as an indication they had a problem & needed to come up. Apparently completely normal.

In contrast, I recall no word that THEY HEARD A BANG FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE. 😬 Image
Read 14 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Apr 20
In the "you can't make this stuff up" category, in this 16 Apr image of COMEC's Longxue shipyard in Guangzhou you can see 5 of China's new Shuiqiao-class "invasion barges", whose only apparent purpose is to invade Taiwan, as well as... Image
...based on AIS data, what also appears to be a container ship under construction for a TAIWANESE Company, Evergreen Lines.

(and a couple of Zubr-class assault hovercraft, PLA Navy auxiliaries, and more.) Image
Image
To be clear, this sort of thing has been talked about before, even in Taiwan: taipeitimes.com/News/front/arc…
Read 8 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Apr 18
A few interesting tidbits from INDOPACOM Commander Admiral Paparo's recent testimony. First, he puts China's warship production at a ratio of "6-to-1.8" to ours, or about 3.3 to 1. Image
This exceeds any of my estimates, which usually run a bit over 2-to-1 in hull count, and about 1.5-1 in tonnage.
Makes me wonder if there are PLAN ships I missed, or perhaps he's counting only surface combatants? Not sure.
On the topic of SLCM-N, he gives a full-throated endorsement. Of note, this is not the STRATCOM commander, but the theater commander that might actually need to use something like this (or have it to deter the other side's use of something similar). Image
Read 13 tweets
Tom Shugart Profile picture
Mar 20
Hot off the presses: I'm pleased to announce the release of this @ChinaMaritime Note covering China's new Shuiqiao landing barges, which I co-authored with Michael Dahm. I hope that folks find it a useful source of info on this important new development. digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/14/
@ChinaMaritime Some highlights: first, our key takeaways. Image
@ChinaMaritime Next, we found patents for these or similar barges in filings from several years ago. In other words, this project has been in the works for a while now - not a reaction to the 2022 Pelosi visit, or the DPP's election win, etc. (not that I ever thought it was). Image
Image
Read 9 tweets

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