Seth Abramson Profile picture
Jul 25, 2021 17 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Political analysts who didn't understand what Trump meant when he said, in Phoenix, that certain legislators in Arizona want to go "several steps beyond" what anyone would expect them to do are AWOL from their jobs.

There is a plot afoot to try to "decertify" Arizona's electors.
Can Arizona decertify its electors? No—of course not. But was Arizona Senate president Karen Fann lying when she said the audit was about 2024—not 2020? Yes. Arizona legislators plan to decertify Biden electors—forcing a lawsuit to prevent other states from trying to do the same.
Trump's plan is to promote fake audits in every battleground state he lost that's controlled by Republicans, ending in a decertification of electors in those states. That'll force lawsuits that have to go to SCOTUS. Trump says SCOTUS can't overrule legislatures (which is insane).
So what we're headed toward is a SCOTUS decision on whether Biden is president, with Trump having convinced tens of millions that if the Court rules against him, it didn't actually have the power to do that—because *state legislatures*, not voters or SCOTUS, decide the president.
So you have an ex-POTUS trying to not just figuratively but literally delegitimize our government in the context of an ongoing insurrection and rise in Trumpist terrorism. He wants America to be in a state of civil war. But I just heard an analyst on MSNBC say he's "unconcerned."
The reason I call Donald Trump a "domestic terror leader" is because right now the only possible defense against what he's doing is action by law enforcement. Our politicians and our media—after 5 years of not understanding the threat this man poses—continue not to understand it.
He's not going to stop. Ever. The only thing that'll stop him is incarceration. Unlike him and his cult, I only want anyone incarcerated if a charge can be proven against them beyond a reasonable doubt. Here—based on years of writing and research—I know that a case *can* be made.
When Trump lauded legislators who want to go "several steps beyond" what anyone expects, those words should've been national news. We should've spent today unpacking a coordinated plot to illegally decertify Biden electors. But we're not. Because the threat isn't taken seriously.
You know what else wasn't taken seriously? Russian collusion, which we now know occurred. You know what else wasn't taken seriously? Collusion with the UAE, which we now know occurred. You know what else wasn't taken seriously? An attempted coup, which we all now know occurred.
At every turn, he does everything his critics say he'll do—and even worse. And yet he continues to be seen in media as something less than an urgent existential threat to America.

I fear—and millions of us fear—that we will soon understand the threat he poses in terrifying ways.
(PS) My—and other analysts'—understanding of what Wendy Rogers and her insurrectionist thugs are doing are based on their public statements, which indicate they want to go well beyond writing new election laws to decertifying electors.

Trump's statements confirm *he knows this*.
(PS2) What many don't understand—prompted by bad legal analysis in media—is that just because something is illegal doesn't mean it won't happen. You can do it, it just results in legal action. So decertifying electors being illegal has *nothing* to do with whether it'll be tried.
(PS3) The number of folks in the comments to this thread saying something along the lines of, "None of this matters, because you can't decertify an election" is terrifying. People don't understand that the danger we're facing has nothing to do with the law—it's about lawlessness.
(PS4) Anyone saying, "I'm not worried about Trump doing X or Y because it's illegal" is saying that they believe, after *six years* of watching Trump, that he can be stopped by someone calling his actions illegal. I'll repeat: only incarceration via legal process ends the threat.
(PS5) As a Trump biographer, I can tell you that his M.O. is to develop all his backup plans *in public*. He's already developed the narrative that legislators decide elections, not judges. Even if the decertification issue gets to SCOTUS and Trump loses, he will stoke civil war.
(PS6) Almost as bad as those who say Trump isn't a danger because "rule of law" are those who say he isn't a danger because it's all a grift. Of *course* it's part grift—but the trajectory of the grift is the *collapse of America*, so what's the point of dismissing it as a grift?
(PS7) Moreover—and again I say this as a Trump biographer—people misunderstand how Trump's avarice works. It exists alongside a deep anger and bitterness that manifests as a penchant for *chaos and destruction*. Trump's desire to destroy is—every time—the other side of his grift.

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More from @SethAbramson

Oct 28
(🧵) So many people have Trump wrong. What he wants is not Putin's Russia or Hitler's Germany. I've studied him for a decade and can tell you that if his plans come true, America will resemble the Hermit Kingdom—North Korea—with Trump as Kim Jong-un and the rest of us in poverty.
2/ Nazism holds some above others. Trump holds himself above everyone—that's the distinction he cares about.
Russia suffers an oligarch class to exist. Trump may do so for now—but his plan is for them to be his servants.
He wants the rest of us in pain and anonymous as pond scum.
To make Trump legible to the masses, we analogize him to a kleptocrat or a fascist. And he does contain those components. But what he wants—lusts for—is to be worshipped and never denied, to shape reality to suit his whims, to not be bothered with others’ welfare and our despair.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 12
I just woke up from a long nap, can someone tell me if Trump has already apologized to the nation for falsely blaming the Kirk assassination on the left when—as with both his assassination attempts and 85% of political violence this century per the data—it was a far-right nutjob?
He is a Groyper. The Groypers are a far-right, neo-Nazi cult made up of young far-right males who thought Kirk was insufficiently far-right. thedailybeast.com/charlie-kirk-s…
Read 15 tweets
Sep 12
Bomb threats against the Maryland General Assembly. Bomb threats against the Michigan lieutenant governor and his family. Bomb threats against 5 HBCUs. Two arrests for violent assaults in Idaho.

In 24 hours.

All Democratic/left-leaning victims.

All suspected MAGA perpetrators.
And that wasn't a full list—not even close.

Bomb threat against the Rhode Island Senate President. Bomb threat against the Rhode Island Majority Leader. Bomb threat against the New Mexico Senate Majority Leader. Once again all Democratic victims, all suspected MAGA perpetrators.
There's no reason to have a conversation about political violence based in rhetoric rather than data.

I don't need to note that every bomb threat on Election Day in 2024 was a MAGA bomb threat.

I don't need to mention January 6, Paul Pelosi, or the two dead Minnesota Democrats. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 11
There was significantly less political violence in America before the 2016 presidential campaign. We all know why.

That doesn’t change that what happened today—in both Utah and Colorado—were tragedies.

It just underscores that revisionist history won’t solve America's problems.
Donald Trump transformed politics into an ultraviolent Thunderdome.

He did it for his own advancement, and he didn’t care what the consequences would be.

It’s *also* true that since Trump poisoned our politics there’s been violence from both Left and Right, though mostly Right.
Both Trump assassination plots I condemned immediately and unreservedly. Both would-be assassins were Republicans. The assassin who killed Minnesota’s Speaker was also Republican. So was the man who plotted to kill Pelosi. But there have been leftist assassins too. I condemn all.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 8
There's no lie Elon Musk and his racist friends won't tell to try to hurt nonwhites—or even, I fear, to try to get deranged others to *literally* hurt nonwhites.

And we know these racists want to cause pain because a two-second Grok search would destroy every one of their lies. Image
Image
If you read the comments on Musk's racist post, it's person after person after person absolutely convinced that Muslims never migrate to other Muslim countries but only come to Europe or America and only do so as part of some sort of invasion. These folks are touched in the head.
The history of human migration, by whatever group—of whatever race or ethnicity or religion—is that sometimes migrants are looking for a very similar place, sometimes a slightly different place, sometimes a very different place.

That has been human nature for thousands of years.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 28
(🧵) Major media should be ashamed.

The manifesto of the Minnesota shooter has been translated—and it's all about his hatred of Jews, Blacks, Mexicans, illegal immigrants, Somalis... none of this had to do with him being trans and major media *knows* it.

So why won't it say so?
1/ The manifesto uses the most vile slurs imaginable to describe Jews and Blacks, groups MAGA is hostile to.

The manifesto uses the most vile rhetoric imaginable to speak of illegal immigrants, another group Maga is hostile to.

And it uses 4chan-speak. 4chan is a MAGA hotbed.
2/ Everyone in America knows at this point that MAGA is a fascist movement and that the first group it wants to start treating like the Nazis did Jews are transgender persons. So the second the possibility the shooter was trans arose, all of us should have apprehended the danger.
Read 13 tweets

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