The accelerating pace of climate change means the world's biggest reinsurer is already cutting back its exposure to the sort of natural disasters that have swept through China, Germany, Canada and London in recent weeks:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Reinsurers, who provide insurance to insurance companies, are key to how the world pays for natural disasters.

They get less than 5% of the industry's premium fees but cover as much as two-thirds of its losses when catastrophes like earthquakes and cyclones strike: Image
Most of the disasters that have been in the news of late, though, aren't those large-scale cataclysms.

They're so-called "secondary perils" — smaller local events like flooding, wildfire, storms, hail. ImageImageImageImage
Reinsurers operate on a model where they just pay their cut if the financial losses whenever disaster strikes, so they can't really exclude secondary perils the way a primary insurer might have an exclusion written into their policy.
But they can look at their underwriting losses and notice where they're paying too much for secondary perils, and then pull back from (and raise prices in) those business areas.

That's what the world's biggest catastrophe reinsurer Swiss Re has been doing lately.
There's a tendency in some quarters to assume that because we have a reinsurance industry set up to manage natural disaster risks, then we can manage away the financial risks of climate change.

Unfortunately it doesn't work like that! Image
Insurance isn't charity and all the money to fund disaster coverage ultimately comes from you, the consumer. Reinsurers' business is about modelling disaster risks and avoiding ones that hurt the bottom line. And they're as nervous about climate change as scientists are.
Do read the article, and follow @kmac who has been bringing people's attention to these trends for years, and has forgotten more on the subject than I will ever learn! bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

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More from @davidfickling

23 Jul
Seeing some comments that the Zhengzhou floods are a result of cutting corners on infrastructure, which seem pretty dubious to me.
Water and flood management is, after real estate and manufacturing, by far the largest sector that China spends money on.

Fixed asset investment in water and environment is more than in transport, education and health PUT TOGETHER.

stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2018…
In terms of *state* investment, China is basically a dam-building program with an army.

But flood management is hard and often counterproductive, and the Yangtze and Yellow are two of the most destructive rivers in history in terms of floods.
Read 6 tweets
20 Jul
SMH that someone who's become the world's richest man *on the basis of a logistics business* thinks our planet needs to import resources and goods from space:
politico.com/amp/news/2021/…
IDK is there a reason Amazon doesn't offer same-day fresh food shipping to any spot on the face of the planet?

Maybe think about that before deciding we need to start importing moon nickel.
Will there be any pollution from moving all the polluting industries to space using rockets that burn a ton of methane every second? Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Jul
Does anyone know of a good history of the German fertilizer industry in World War 1?

The Haber-Bosch process for making synthetic ammonia was invented in Germany on the eve of war, but the plants were all switched to making explosives instead of fertilizer.
Britain then blockaded German ports to prevent imports of fertilizer, causing agricultural productivity to collapse. This resulted in food riots and starvation which may have helped turned the tide of war against Germany.
Did Germany make the right choice in prioritizing ammonium nitrate explosives over ammonium nitrate fertilizers?

Could it have achieved a better outcome by trying to do both instead of focusing so heavily on explosives?
Read 4 tweets
7 Jul
This is ... not a smart way of inducing compliance with lockdown measures from people who are chafing at lockdown measures:
"Flout the public health orders we're making and you'll get the let-it-rip policy you always wanted."
It only makes sense if you think anti-mask types have the same perception of risk from Covid as the rest of us, so will remain compliant for self-preservation reasons.

Pretty obviously, that's not what's been happening.
Read 4 tweets
1 Jul
This is very good on Australia's vaccine communication mess:

theguardian.com/australia-news…
I'm quite struck by this passage, which seems overconfident to me.

Nearly 1,000 people have died of Covid in Australia. We had multiple days of 20+ deaths *in Victoria alone* last winter. Image
Public health experts are trying to communicate age-specific risks in the best way possible so I have huge sympathy.

However, anecdotally so many people I speak to are *terrified* of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Communication isn't working effectively if that's the outcome.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jun
Does the head of Harvard's endowment understand how short-selling works?

Because this idea of using short positions as carbon offsets makes no sense to me.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
He's arguing that shorting an emitter's stock puts pressure on the company to change similar to activist investing, and raises its cost of capital.

I bet short-sellers wish it was that easy!
To the extent short-sellers have any effect on a company's cost of capital, it's by *bringing fresh information to the market* about its risk profile.

But you don't need the Harvard endowment to tell you that heavily emitting companies have a Net Zero problem! We all know this.
Read 7 tweets

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