One good question for anyone who is proposing to overhaul a current social or political system: "In what ways would this work less well than the status quo?"

If they can't thoughtfully acknowledge the tradeoffs of their proposal, they aren't serious. Life is tradeoffs.
For example, I support drug legalization, even though I think this will mean drug use goes up, including some people developing substance abuse problems they would not have had under prohibition.
I favor deincarceration while knowing that on the margin, at least some criminals will thereby be freed to reoffend; I also favor increasing police presence while knowing that on the margin, this creates the opportunity for more negative interactions with the community.
I opposed Obamacare while acknowledging that it would make at least some people better off. I took this positions because I thought that on net they were the least costly options, not because they were all upside, not a drawback in sight.
Too many policy advocates--and analysts!--seem to be living in a fantasy world, or a political ad.

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More from @asymmetricinfo

13 Jul
I'm constantly surprised by how many women I meet had a terrible experience with the pill in ways that they *weren't* warned about--notably, a sudden & profound loss of interest in the activity that was the reason they were taking the pill. Often it persisted after they went off.
Also, most of them report their OB/GYN was dismissive when they asked whether maybe the fact that they suddenly didn't want to have sex had something to do with the new pills they were taking.
And fair enough--post hoc, ergo propter hoc is bad science. But loss of libido is a known side effect!

Also, I first got interested in this question because I was in a group of six random ladies, one of whom offhandedly mentioned it--followed by five others saying "me too!"
Read 5 tweets
9 Jul
This thread is worth reading, the epistemic criss on the right is real, and yes, the mainstream media, by freaking out about Trump and abandoning normal standards, made that epistemic crisis much worse.

That said, I have some quibbles ...
Fundamentally, I agree that this is the story many Trump supporters/apologists tell themselves, and that too much of it is true for comfort.

But my personal experience is that at the end of the day, the story is irrelevant; they side with Trump because they hate/fear his enemies
Back them off any particular truth claim, force them to confront the inescapable evidence that it's false, and they retreat almost instantly to some total irrelevancy about how progressives are nasty and dangerous.

They may be right, but that doesn't make Trump's lies any truer.
Read 6 tweets
9 Jul
Mystified that anyone thinks "It's not nearly as bad as the worst period of criminal violence in US history" is a compelling rejoinder to fears about crime.

Rather than reassuring, it suggests you think we should wait until murders reach their old level before taking action.
I realize, of course, that this is not what people are *trying* to say, but it's what they're implying, and they should stop! It is a total political own-goal.
If you want to allay media-driven crime anxiety, ask folks if anyone they know has been victimized recently. In my experience, answer's usually "No", which often gives worriers pause--if cities are really descending into dystopia, how come no one they know has been mugged lately?
Read 7 tweets
7 Jul
Once education became the entry requirement for a decent, stable job it was 100% predictable that affluent parents would move heaven and earth to ensure their child's education, and to hell with what that does to anyone else. It's not socially optimal, but neither is it malleable
No combination of policies will induce middle class parents to sacrifice their childrens' opportunities to even out things for the children of other parents who aren't as engaged/adept. Any policy that starts from the premise of redistributing educational opportunity is doomed.
Megan's three iron laws of politics:

1) You cannot get away with messing up someone's pension
2) You cannot get away with messing up the futures of middle class kids
3) You cannot get away with messing up someone's healthcare plan.
Read 5 tweets
22 Jun
A bunch of things well established in the literature, and ferociously disputed by many in the public health community:

1) Obesity kills but not as many as you've heard
2) "Overweight" = lower mortality than "normal" weight
3) No one knows how to make people permanently thinner.
The wrath-of-a-thousand-suns reaction to point two, in particular, seems completely bizarre; the only way I can explain it is a kind of puritanism that wants being plump to be bad for you because it's fun getting that way.
To be sure, it may be confounding--lots of illnesses make you lose weight, though researchers do try to control for it. But no one has correctly identified the confounder yet, as far as I am aware.
Read 7 tweets
8 Jun
I thought the ProPublica analysis of billionaire taxes was going to be exciting. Instead, it told me things I already knew: that the US tax code offers deductions for charitable donations, loan interest, and business operating expenses, and only taxes capital gains when you sell.
The most exciting thing is wondering who gave them the information, and how long that person will spend in jail when they're caught, as I suspect they will be.
This isn't a case where you could have gotten one person's partial records from an accountant or a disgruntled ex-spouse. Practically speaking, unless all the billionaires have the same tax attorney, I suspect the only place the data could have come from is the IRS itself.
Read 6 tweets

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