Today, let's talk about blue's most underrated common: Clever Conjurer. ALSA of 7.56 in Bo3, just above Secret Door at 7.82, making it the 6th least-picked blue common. For reference, You Find the Villains' Lair and You Come to a River are taken above it. 1/x
However, from the Metagame graph, it does look like that's changing, but more as a factor of the other cards going down than Conjurer going up much. 2/x
The baseline use of Conjurer is as a mana dork. And you might think that that's not very impressive at 3 mana when the 2/3 body isn't super exciting either, but it turns out that there are a *lot* of good 5+ MV cards in this set: strategy.channelfireball.com/all-strategy/c… 3/x
And I've found the most success in blue decks, especially UG, with stabilizing behind a 5-drop: Rimeshield Frost Giant is the prime example with its Ward 3 and 5 toughness, but green also has Elturguard Ranger and Owlbear. 4/x
So Conjurer ramping from 3 to 5 is in fact pretty good, but other cards do this too: Find the Path, for example, hasn't been particularly good in my experience. Dungeon Map has been good, but its upside is more obvious. So why is Conjurer not just like Find? 5/x
For one thing, while a 3 mana 2/3 body isn't the best, it also isn't nothing. Compare Conjurer to Vampire Spawn: both are 3 mana 2/3s that provide a bit of tempo boost. Obviously Spawn does so immediately and at any point, but being comparable to Spawn is pretty good. 6/x
For another thing, the tempo advantage doesn't end once you're out of things to ramp to. After you get a big creature out early, you can then start using Conjurer to give that big creature vigilance, which helps you turn the corner faster. 7/x
And in UG especially, you can sometimes have enough mana sinks that you're always able to use the mana from Conjurer. Plus, Conjurer also sometimes doubles as a mana sink itself by letting you use Dungeon Map and 50 ft of Rope multiple times a turn. 8/x
Finally, Conjurer just randomly embarrasses tap removal - obviously Ray of Frost and Charmed Sleep, but it also counteracts a bit of Scion of Stygia and 50 ft of Rope. Relatedly, it even untaps Lurking Roper in lieu of any lifegain! 9/x
Conclusion: it's hard to talk about U's "top commons", since no U commons are really draws into U. But Clever Conjurer plays a very important role in defensive U decks, especially UG, by helping you stabilize quicker and get ahead on tempo, while going criminally late. 10/10
Was talking on Discord a bit about why I think the UW tap deck failed design-wise this format, and figured I'd translate my points here.
So, here's a thread: 1/x
It's pretty clear by now that the UW tap archetype just isn't working in WOE.
UW is the worst color pair in WOE on 17lands - just barely above 50% winrate, which is atrocious, same as LTR scry elves.
I think the reasons for this are actually quite interesting. 2/x
1. The simplest reason is just that blue and white are the two worst colors in WOE.
Every set has color imbalances, this set happens to have those converge on UW being weak. The card quality just isn't there, the commons just not as deep as Jund. 3/x
Bit of a different kind of "underrated card" thread today. I usually don't do rares, and one could reasonably argue that this card is actually mostly *overrated*.
But today, I want to focus on why and how 17lands stats dramatically underrate the card Invasion of Kaldheim.
1/x
As a rare that gets picked a lot higher than I take it (3.14 ALSA in Bo3!), I don't have that much experience actually playing with the card. But it reads pretty strong to me, and has seemed impressive when I've cast it.
So why does it have a whopping *48.8%* GIH WR in Bo1?
2/x
Having a GIH WR below 50% is really bad - by this metric, Invasion of Kaldheim is the 19th worst card in the set, in the vicinity of unsupported buildarounds like Kaheera, Dina, Theros, and Arcavios. If you were drafting purely based on GIH WR, you would never pick it.
As promised, underrated card threads! First up: Urn of Godfire.
I expected this card to be completely unplayable, but recently I've been trying it a lot, and have honestly been impressed.
It's not great overall, but I hope to show where and how to use it in this thread. 1/15
Urn is currently the 10th least-picked card on 17lands in Bo1 (12th in Bo3), with ALSA 8.62 (8.35 in Bo3). Its pick rate seems to be staying roughly even in both Bo1 and Bo3.
So where is Urn good? Well, one of the more obvious use cases is as a bad hard removal spell.
1+6 mana is a lot to remove something, but with a lot of bombs in the set, it can sometimes be quite important to have actual hard removal in your deck.
Thinking of doing underrated card threads again for this set, probably going to try for 2-3 times a week for a bit, and see how it goes?
But first I figure I should talk about Seed of Hope, which was very underrated, but is likely moving towards overrated as people hype it. 1/7
At some point Seed of Hope was the least-picked green common by ALSA, while having something like a 60ish% GIH WR in Bo1.
But after a bunch of content creators have been talking it up, this is no longer the case - it's quickly trending up in ALSA, and down to 56% GIH WR. 2/7
So how good is Seed of Hope? Well, if it didn't have the clause about permanents, it would be like a Consider that gains 2 life (with small differences like being able to bin the second card), which is great! Consider is solid but unexciting in limited, and 2 life is huge. 3/7
Okay I should be asleep right now but instead I did a bit more digging, and it's possible I'm missing something, but it seems that 17lands data contains an exhaustive list of all possible sets of commons in Arena packs of DMU, and that this list is surprisingly small. 1/7
So basically I took the 17lands DMU draft dataset I've been using (which is a bit old, but still has 251,574 drafts), and looked at, for each common, how many different sets of commons it appeared with. And it turns out that the answer is always between 2998 and 3000. 2/7
With about 100 commons, and 10 commons per pack, we can expect each common to show up 25k times, so if the possible sets of commons each show up equally, we'd expect to see each one about 8-9 times. 3/7