soncharm Profile picture
28 Jul, 49 tweets, 5 min read
Thread of things I’ve not been persuaded of. Not that I believe in their converse, just that I haven’t been persuaded of them, by anyone.
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HCQ doesn’t help with the Wuhan Virus
The 2020 Presidential election was on the up-and-up, its outcome was consistent with what a perfect tally of valid voters’ cast-votes would show, were this possible
That IVM stuff doesn’t help with the Wuhan Virus
The Wuhan vaccines are safe to a degree that they are worth taking by all people in all age categories for which they’re currently approved
FBI didn’t instigate the foiled kidnapping plot of that Governor and it’s untrue to think it wouldn’t have happened absent its informants and their instigation
Fed instigators and infiltrators had no meaningful role in the ‘1/6’ insurrection
There wasn’t anything like a conscious choice made to remove security/police personnel from the Capitol in 1/6 in hopes that the crowd would overreach and riot allowing for a crackdown
Epstein killed himself (obviously)
Widespread masking is a helpful tool in controlling spread of the Wuhan Virus, and this has been demonstrated via respectable scientific research.
Seth Rich’s murder was a senseless street crime.
The Wuhan virus was probably zoonotic and not a lab leak. Gain-of-function research had nothing to do with it, and Dr. Fauci had no knowledge of the ongoing funding of this research anyway. He couldn’t have known or suspected it to be connected to the pandemic.
The Trump-Russia investigation was borne of genuine and sincere counterintelligence concern on the part of the feds, and did not trace to oppo research meant to smear a political opponent.
Christine Ford didn’t conspire with some feds and insidery DC lawyer types to concoct the Kavanaugh accusation from personal anecdotes blended with bits & pieces from Mark Judge’s book
It’s also ridiculous to think that the reason DC’s mayor wanted to withhold a security presence from the Capitol on 1/6 is that she, and others like her, feared whoever was sent would be ‘loyal to Trump’ and help execute a coup for him.
Public-health experts at the CDC give masking a central role in their guidance because they genuinely believe masks help significantly.
We don’t know where the gathering described by Christine Ford in her Kavanaugh accusation took place, but we know it wasn’t the house where her boyfriend at the time lived, about 6 short blocks away - a short walk - from the Columbia Country Club
No one I know has died due to complications that were a direct consequence of having taken a Wuhan-virus vaccine.
The DNC/Podesta emails that got leaked to the web got there because they were pilfered by Russian hackers
The DNC/Podesta emails being published and also various Russia social-media influence operations swayed 2016 voting to a significant degree, and the direction of that sway was toward Trump net-net.
Epidemiological science has long said that societal lockdowns are a key and effective way to suppress a respiratory virus.
It’s very understandable that public-health authorities have responded to the Wuhan virus with the various restrictive NPIs that they have, due to what its death rate (IFR) is. Historically, any virus with that IFR would’ve been reacted to similarly.
Bret Weinstein is simply wrong to posit that opposition to the IVM stuff he champions might trace to a regulatory-capture-related desire of pharma companies to eliminate alternative Tx’s so as to qualify their products for EUA approval.
The recently-released UFO videos might actually be something truly mysterious or even alien, and don’t simply trace to lens effects and similar visual artifacts.

(just to throw in a non-conspiratorial one to keep the mood light)
George Floyd’s death was a murder rather than an overdose.
Closing schools last year saved lives.
The 1/6 defendants are being treated by federal authorities exactly as people who did the same exact act but in favor of a D candidate would be treated in the same situation.
No one in a position of power thinks China has meaningful culpability for the Wuhan Virus. But if they did, they’d surely do something about it.
When all is said and done, the lives saved due to lockdowns/NPIs will exceed those lost, directly or indirectly, near- & long-term, due to their effects.
In hindsight, the guy in this video is crazy. What a lunatic!
The Washington Redskins & Cleveland Indians had to change their team nicknames because they were offensive to Native Americans.
Raising income tax rates on higher incomes would help fight inequality
It’s not like some states/districts are going to end up requiring masks on children all day forever, or anything.
The ‘Clinton Body Count’ is complete nonsense. Every single death on it has a valid explanation.
If we could just convince/get these damn vaccine holdouts to get the jab, this would all be over.
No one is saying kids should be wearing masks in schools forever. Come on. No one wants that.
The Benghazi attack was prompted by an organic groundswell of anger over some sort of youtube video.
John McCain wanted to win the 2008 Presidential election
The 2007-08 financial crisis had nothing to do with equity-motivated housing goals/agendas prompted by the federal government at multiple levels/agencies
Michael Jordan just wanted to try baseball for a while
The best way to govern is to follow the science.
If we could just get together with other countries and make the right agreements about carbon emissions, it would turn around global warming.
MMT has shown that the deficit hawks’ intuition/fear that higher deficits will just mean tax hikes down the road is totally off base.
The key to a lot of things is just helping more people to go to college.
Democrat-leaning people in this country were sincerely worried about Russia & Vladimir Putin - what he would to do our country, and stopping his ambitions - during the Trump years
The reason the Church’s witch-hunts were so wrong, ultimately, is obviously that ‘witches’ didn’t exist.
The Wuhan virus is more dangerous to the average minor than is the flu
The key to economic growth and prosperity in this country is to increase immigration. And look, even if you’re squeamish about more immigration overall, it’s obvious that more *skilled* immigrants as per the H-1B program would be desirable for this country.
You might think it’s been tough, but because of their harsh NPIs, Australia & New Zealand’s success in largely containing the Wuhan Virus means that they will never see the sorts of case counts suffered in other countries.

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More from @soncharm

28 Jul
vaccine-pushing I see in covid-cult circles seems to really miss the point to me. Once the vax rate is 60 or 70 then pulling out all the stops to get it to 70 or 80 or whatever just seems obtuse and diminishing marginal returns esp if protection doesn’t last, breakthroughs, etc.
constantly running around in circles trying to solve yesterday’s problem. I don’t know what the vax-pushers think their endgame reward from it will be. eradication? it’s not gonna be eradicated guys. not via this
in a context of breakthrough delta and waning protection anyway, there is no Problem that gets magically Solved from nagging/goading/lawfaring some marginal cohort of Holdouts into getting the vaccine, too

that way doesn’t lie your paradise, guys
Read 5 tweets
28 Jul
One thing I’ll say about the vaccines is, from what I can tell, almost everyone on my TL appears to know more about the vaccines than I do. How effective they are/aren’t, how safe or not, whether they protect you from XYZ or just XY, etc.

I know very little of this stuff!
People also know a lot about ‘delta’. They know that its reproduction number, R0, the avg number of ppl each infection spreads to in the absence of (&c.) is 6, vs. R0 for Wuhan Classic which they know to be 2.5.

I don’t know those things, nor do I know how everyone knows them.
I don’t know whether it makes rational sense on a risk-benefit basis to vaccinate a given person of age T for all values of T. Others do, though. Very strong opinions. I don’t know how they did the calculation.
Read 6 tweets
28 Jul
Pretty rich to see people whining about 1/6 being a ‘threat to our democracy’.

Dunno if you’ve noticed, but we don’t have a ‘democracy’ (or republic, or democratic republic) at this time. We have a health-dictatorship. One cheered on by most of the people crying about “1/6”.
There’s nothing consistent with ‘democracy’ about a system in which bureaucrats can issue orders they call ‘guidance’, and then governors/executives implement them wholesale as diktats, saying they are metaphysically required to ‘follow’ them.
If you complain about the ‘guidance’, people say Hey, it’s not a law, just guidance.

If you complain that the diktat was issued, people say Hey they have to follow the guidance.

No part of this process is influenced by anything ‘democratic’.
Read 5 tweets
27 Jul
Ever since noticing the weird confluence of all Smart People citing Alabama, unprompted, as part of their great crusade against Vaccine-Holdout MAGAheads, as THE go-to dummy unvaxxed state that was gonna kill us all, I like to check in with their numbers occasionally

Seems ok?
For avoidance of doubt this is not an argument that Alabama has a great 'policy', that 'vaccination doesn't matter', or that something bad can't/won't happen in Alabama the future.

Just an argument that Smart People have overly simplistic one-dimensional stories in their heads.
It's the Smart People who have the most confidence in their simplistic and one-dimensional stories. Regular ol' non-Smart People might be inclined to admit their ignorance, that there's things they don't know/understand, outside their paradigm. But not Smart People! They know all
Read 4 tweets
26 Jul
This raises something pro-lockdown types have (if only implicitly) accused me of since this all started: my lack of sunny optimism, essentially a failure of sufficient self-sacrificial ‘heroism’, in my (correct) belief that staying on the ‘golden path’ was a non-starter.
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I’ll just say that hey, if you’d asked me to envision pre-2019 what our Pandemic Response Plan would’ve looked like, I too might’ve imagined sealed 3-ring binders being unsealed, and helicopters swooping down to unload a rappelling Dustin Hoffman in a hazmat suit, saving the day.
But instead what we got was, like, some lady in a giant scarf standing at a podium on TV telling us all to ‘wash our hands’.

I dunno, stuff like that just kinda seemed like a clue to me that no Super Awesome Pandemic Plan was in the offing. Maybe I’m just super-perceptive.
Read 4 tweets
26 Jul
Since (as I think more people are inevitably conceding) we’re not going to eradicate covid on anything less than a generational timescale, and vaccines are leaky, the best thing for it is early/regular exposure in kids so their immune systems are trained for it.

How am I wrong.
Vaccinate and protect older people who had no exposure to it as kids, as best one can. But meanwhile, neither lament nor freak out about exposures in kids. It can’t be avoided anyway, without massive vigilance & rendering them extra-vulnerable for their lifetimes.
One reason for peoples’ resistance to this is simple innumeracy. Yes it affects a small portion of kids horribly, no one wants that to be their kid, so, super-vigilance. But parents following the same rationale consistently must never let their kids leave the house. Too risky.
Read 14 tweets

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