The best historical analogy for the 1/6 coup attempt, in my opinion, is neither the Reichstag Fire (obviously) nor the Beer Hall Putsch (less obviously), but rather Japan's March Incident coup attempt of 1931.
noahpinion.substack.com/p/japanese-les…
noahpinion.substack.com/p/japanese-les…
The plan was:
1. Start a riot at the national legislature
2. Cause enough chaos that the military would be forced to step in and install a right-wing leader instead of the duly elected leader
This plan was covertly supported by a rightist legislator.
1. Start a riot at the national legislature
2. Cause enough chaos that the military would be forced to step in and install a right-wing leader instead of the duly elected leader
This plan was covertly supported by a rightist legislator.
The plan failed when:
1) Not enough people showed up to the riot
2) The rightist leader they wanted to install got cold feet.
The rioters were arrested and lightly punished.
1) Not enough people showed up to the riot
2) The rightist leader they wanted to install got cold feet.
The rioters were arrested and lightly punished.
The light punishment encouraged further coup attempts -- five in all, over the course of the 1930s.
The March Incident demonstrates that coup attempts need not be well-orchestrated, or indeed to have any chance of success, in order to destabilize a country. Because even shambolic, doomed coup attempts can lead to more serious attempts down the line.
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