THREAD

Prepare yourself for what's to come...

Seriously...

Things are gonna look a little dark in the coming weeks.

Not that you need to panic.

Why?

I'm going to walk you through what you need to know.

#COVID19Colorado

1/
First of all...

Prepare yourself now for the inevitable national news media freakout that's coming.

Because it's coming

Cases are on the rise all over the US. Media outlets more interested in clicks will attempt to capitalize on that.

Don't fall for it.

2/
Yes, rising case counts are concerning.

But it's a story that begs for context...

What kind of context? Welp, look at the UK for example.

UK just went through a BIG case spike. How big? Nearly as big as winter spike

(thanks @nytimes)

3/
But look at what's happened in the UK when it comes to hospitalizations.

Appears to have just peaked... at a MUCH LOWER number than previous winter peak

How much lower?

This peak is 20% of previous

4/
But hold on, you say. Don't hospitalizations lag?

Yes, they do... by a few weeks... but we're already seeing a concrete example that the UK patient peak is just beginning to turn

5/
news.yahoo.com/covid-patients…
To review... in the UK cases SPIKED... big time...

but patient counts didn't...

Why?

Well, you already know the answer to that...

6/
So, if US follows UK path here... yes... a lot of people will get sick... but a lot of people won't end up getting so sick that they end up in hospital

that's the goalpost... has been since the start

BUT... there's one big caveat... (and something you can monitor yourself)

7/
FLORIDA

Yep...

FLORIDA...

Watch what's happening there closely.

Cases are going up...BUT SO ARE HOSPITALIZATIONS

That's not great news.

8/
Why is Florida having such a problem?

Well, vaccination rate isn't great, but it's about middle of the road in the US

(thanks @MayoClinic)

Other states are doing much worse

So, yes, vaccination rate has something to do with this, but it's likely answer is more complicated

9/
But let's compare Florida with Colorado.

Here we are seeing a decent case rise (doubled in about a month and a half)

(still QUITE LOW... see below)

10/
But we have yet to see any substantive rise in hospitalizations.

If it stays this way, we're in ok shape

(Again, not suggesting that COVID infection comes w/o consequence)

11/
Bottom line...

This is why I will be paying close attention to HOSPITALIZATIONS and less attention to CASES

I would recommend you do the same.

I'm telling you... the national news freakout is coming...

Don't get sucked in

12/
You want this upcoming case spike to look like the UK's

(and you don't want it to look like Florida's right now)

Don't let the inevitable CASES ARE RISING freakout get you freaked out.

You should demand context.

Context is key

FIN

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More from @chrisvanderveen

29 Jul
THURSDAY #COVID19Colorado update

Headline: Cases jumping. Biggest one day count since May 24. Highest patient count in a month. But hey, relax. This is all expected. Let's not freak out

HOSPITALIZATIONS
COVID+ ONLY

Today: 313 (up 16)
Last week: 266

#9News
CASES

Jumpin

685 (7 day)

903 (single day... largest count since May 24)
POSITIVITY

Still headin up (will break 5% soon)
Read 6 tweets
28 Jul
WEDNESDAY #COVID19Colorado update

Headline: Welp. Here we are again. Me doing updates. Time to take a deep breath and take a gander at the data

HOSPITALIZATIONS
COVID+ ONLY

Today: 297 (Up 5)
Last week: 277

SLOOOW upward trend

#9news
POSITIVITY
This is more noticeable.

Definitely up

Nearing 5%
CASES

Cases up over 600

BUT

Take note... I've labeled 3 peaks (A= winter; B= spring; C= now)

Look at RATE of increase.

C is slowest. (That's good)
Read 5 tweets
28 Jul
THREAD

It's critical the @CDCgov immediately be transparent about its conclusion that vaccinated people can carry nearly as much "viral load" as unvaccinated.

The implications of that conclusion are enormous. CDC saying new data justified mask mandates

washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07…
But it's not entirely clear what data CDC are relying on

Here is link to CDC latest update from yesterday talking about his very subject

cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Some internet sleuths have already figured this out... but I will walk you through what's there

Head to these paragraphs:

"Relatively high viral loads... regardless of vaccination status"

Again, implications are HUGE. Why? Easier to spread.
Read 11 tweets
13 May
Already seeing a lot of chatter about the mask news from CDC that, in essence, goes like this:

"Well, how do we know that unvaccinated people won't lie and opt not to wear a mask?"

And the truth is... we don't and we won't.

Should you care? No... (and maybe a little yes)
First of all... it's time to stop worrying about what others are doing.

If you've been vaccinated... you're in good shape.

The chances of you getting sick have gone WAY down. And the odds of you getting really sick are WAY, WAY down.

This is critical.
If you're around unvaccinated people...

...the risk is theirs. Not yours.

You're safe, they're not.

If we say we "trust the science," then now is the time to prove it. Science is screaming in our faces. The vaccines work. Remarkably well.
Read 8 tweets
10 May
MONDAY #COVID19Colorado update

Headline: Fingers crossed. But for the first time in a long time we have a decent sign that the long-anticipated downturn is underway.

HOSPITALIZATIONS
covid+ ONLY

Today: 653 (down 11)
Last week: 631

#9news Image
POSITIVITY

(below 5!) Image
CASES

(this is BIG)

Look at that curve! Image
Read 5 tweets
10 May
THREAD

Wanna tell ya about a funky story I've been working on for a number of months.

It involves car warranty companies. And DMV data

Anyone get any of these in the mail lately? If so, hold on to them. If not, continue reading. This gets a little nutty.

1/
#9news Image
So a few months ago... I got this email from a man named Dave.

Dave bought a 2012 Impala. As his email says, he paid cash for it. No financing. No dealer

A week after he registered it with the Colorado DMV... he started getting those post cards from car warranty companies

2/ Image
Dave's question led us here at 9News to contemplate something a little goofy.

Somehow I convinced my bosses to sell me a station car (used by @CHansen9NEWS)

Here's the bill of sale to prove it. Yes, I bought it for a dollar. No dealer. No financing. Just me an the DMV.

3/ Image
Read 14 tweets

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