In football, possession is not everything.

While many associate it with domination, it doesn’t always translate into success on the pitch.

Similarly, losing the ball is always seen as a very negative aspect of the game.

But can it be turned into an advantage? 🤔

|THREAD|
Do (some) teams lose possession on purpose? If so, what advantages can you get from deliberately yielding the ball to the opposition? 🤔

This aspect intrigued me so I've decided to dig deeper. Here's what I found out.

👇
How do you analyse if teams lose possession on purpose and to what effect? Where do you even start?

It's like looking for a needle in a haystack. So naturally, I defaulted to consulting the data.

What would a team that loses the ball on purpose look like statistically?
Generally, I felt like such teams would rank high in counter-pressing.

You don't want to give the ball away without getting something in return.

Instead, you seemingly give the ball away in zones that are occupied by the opposition but can give you a good platform to attack.
After some brainstorming, I've settled on some categories I wanted to look into.

The first graph shows possession % vs high-pressing (mid + final third pressures per 90).

The idea here was very simple. My thinking was that low possession teams would lose the ball on purpose.
And as a direct result of often losing the ball, they would be the teams who attempted the most pressures high up the pitch.

But that got me thinking - high possession teams also rely on counter-pressing a lot.

So instead of focusing on one, I've opted to analyse both groups.
Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Hoffenheim & Bayer Leverkusen on one side of the coin and Getafe, Arminia, Brest & Köln on the other, among others.

The premise here is that they lose the ball on purpose so they can counter-press effectively while the opposition is disorganised.
So naturally, they would also record few touches in the final third as their counter-pressing would have to instantly turn into chances, shots or goals.

That's why I looked into danger area touches (final third + pen area) & defensive actions that lead to shots and goals.

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Again, teams like Liverpool, Bayern, Barcelona and Manchester City are possession-dominant so naturally they record more touches in the danger area.

But their defensive actions still lead to shots and goals, making me think truly both types of teams utilise this tactic.
However, one thing I felt had to be a constant - losing the ball via long passes.

Short passing may mean more connections & shorter distances, but would also lead to accumulation of opposition defenders around the ball.

Going long into a predetermined sector seems more likely.
So the winning formula would be attempted long passes and effective counter-pressing. Now, the teams from both high and low possession categories are featured.

This was it, this would be the cluster that would give me some close-to-home results.

So, how do they do it? 🤔
I've divided my piece into three parts:

• High-risk passing into effective counter-pressing
• Counter-pressing the second ball
• Deliberate ‘passive’ and ‘active’ yielding of possession

In this thread, I'll only outline one as it would be too big of a thread otherwise. 👇
Counter-pressing the second ball.

We’ve established that teams often use long balls to set up their counter-pressing sequences.

Here, the aim is to force the opposition to receive passes that are difficult to control and then win the second ball rather than the aerial battle.
Liverpool & Bayern Munich are great at this. By observing their 'unsuccessful' long balls, I've managed to discern some patterns, giving me 'proof' this is indeed a planned course of action.

Notice a fairly simple example below. A long ball aimed at Mo Salah up front.
Salah was never going to be a reliable target-man and yet, Liverpool seem to aim for him often nonetheless.

He was never supposed to win the aerial battle but Liverpool are ready to counter-press the second-ball vigorously.

From there, they can set up their attack anew.
Bayern are similar. How often will we see switches that seem to be rather lacklustre or without proper targets?

Like the one below, for example.

But the trick is to force the opposition to clear the ball towards their preferred area, not to win the aerial duel.
High possession teams do this when there's no clear way to breach the block.

It's a long ball tactic with a counter-pressing foundation that gives you access to an area even without directly occupying it.

At least not at first. Lose the ball to win it.
Low possession teams do it too. Like Arminia in this example here.

Again, they go long, lose the initial aerial battle (or don't even engage in it) and then counter-press for the second ball.

Result: they advanced up the pitch and are in position to hurt disorganised opponents.
So what do those examples have in common? In order for this to be successful, I've identified three main aspects:

1. Clear outlets to pass to once the ball is recovered high
2. Quantitative or qualitative superiority in the preferred area
3. Cover in case the press fails
While not always clearly visible in the images, all three examples had the three boxes ticked.

But this is just scratching the surface and there are other teams that do this to a similarly high level.

Do you have any feedback? Share it!
Finding solid proof of teams deliberately losing possession was always going to be difficult.

However, there is data and some tactical concepts that could suggest it to be a realistic approach.

Rather than accepting the ball is lost, these teams make calculated risks instead.
There are more examples and it's more detailed than this, obviously.

But I'll stop the thread here so that it doesn't become overly long.

If you want to read the full piece, you can find it below

👇
totalfootballanalysis.com/article/tactic…
If you enjoyed this thread, please like & RT the first tweet and feel free to follow for more content like this 🔥

I'm on the road to 4k followers and have so much planned!

I won't tag anyone but you can do so if you think someone would be interested in it!

🙏
I do have to, however, thank @CoachScottCopy for his help with this piece.

Interestingly, he's tackled a similar topic and of course, done a brilliant job analysing direct possession.

When he says 'comprehensive', he means it. 👇

totalfootballanalysis.com/article/tactic…
For those of you that would prefer to listen to analysis rather than read it, @MarcusBr22 @__ElJdP and I have a podcast that you might like too.

It's called @johansrondos and it's a tactical pod on Barcelona and LaLiga.

Find it below 👇🎧

anchor.fm/johans-rondos

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👇👇

|THREAD|
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Discussions and RTs welcome!

THREAD
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